ETB’s Week Ten Fantasy Football Mailbag

- The Season's Over -

ETB’s Week Ten Fantasy Football Mailbag

November 10, 2007

ETB's elaborate mail-sorting system

It’s “win-now time” in the fantasy football season, so ETB is here to help you through the tough decisions on your fantasy roster. Every Saturday we’ll go back through any questions posted in the comments section or emailed to us directly throughout the week and address ‘em here.

Some of these Q&A’s will pertain to your fantasy roster, too; lots of them will not. If you have a question for us, drop us an email at brian@emptythebench.com no later than 3pm on Fridays and we’ll try to include your question in the mailbag. Or, of course, you can post it somewhere in the comments. Please understand that volume will dictate whether or not we get to everyone. And, of course, if you have friends with questions too, tell ‘em about ETB and we’ll fix their wagon. Fix it real good.

We try to tell you which moves have the greatest probability of success. We’re not (technically) clairvoyant. Remember that the right decision is the one that has the greatest probability of producing the desired results, not the one that actually does. Trading Edgerrin James for Adrian Peterson is the right move, even if AP sprains an ankle on Sunday. Hitting with 20 showing is the wrong move, even if there’s an ace on top of the deck.

Onto your dilemmas… names have been changed to protect the innocent.

So here is my deal: I have Brian Westbrook, Steven Jackson, Edgerrin James, Jesse Chatman, and snagged Priest Holmes after LJ went down (I don’t have LJ). I’ve been analyzing the “stats” and monitoring Jackson as well, but I can’t come up with any solid answers.

My league plays 2 RBs and a W/R, so I plan on playing three of them. What would you do (other than play Westbrook because he’s an animal)? Thanks for the help!

- Joseph Shebadu, Jr., Ypsilanti, Michigan

Andrew:
Joey Joe Joe! Obviously you’re going to go with Westbrook every week. That leaves two slots for the remaining four running backs. Prist Holmes has a great matchup against a terrible rush defense and LJ is going to miss this game. However, we don’t think the Chiefs are ready to lean on Priest just yet and we don’t think he would produce at an elite level even if they did. Jesse Chatman played extremely well in Ronnie Brown’s absence two weeks ago, and he’s also tempting at home, but the Buffalo rush defense has been better than advertised so far and isn’t giving up many TDs (just 4 on the season).

That leaves Edgerrin James at home against a Detroit defense that has played very well lately, but has still given up 7 TDs on the ground. Edge will be leaned on heavily in this game and is going to get all of the goal-line carries in a game that should see Arizona put up a couple of touchdowns on the day. You’ll want to keep an eye on his status as the week goes on, but HC Scott Linehan has said that Steven Jackson should play and has looked good. Jackson is coming off a bye week and was playing well in the Rams last game before the back spasms. The New Orleans linebackers have played well this season, but we still see S-Jax as a strong option here. If Jackson doesn’t manage to play, then roll with Jesse Chatman in his stead.

I have Anquan Boldin, Dwayne Bowe, Brandon Marshall, James Jones, and Chris Henry and only 3 WR slots. What do you think?

- Martin Mull, Hollywood, CA

Brian:
Well, Martin, I assume you’ve taken Boldin out of this equation already and have him locked into a starting slot. Though the Detroit Lions defense is playing well and causing turnovers, they are still giving up yardage to skilled wideouts and he has a lot of size on the Lions’ smallish corners. And don’t forget that in his debut game as rookie back in ’03, he burned Detroit for 10 catches, 217 yards, and 2 TDs. So there’s one down.

As for your other two starting slots, overall good guy Chris Henry was reportedly in some kind of silly spat with a parking lot attendant, and it remains to be seen if that will affect his status on Sunday. Seeing as how it’d be his first game of the season anyhow, and that Chad Johnson looks like he’ll play, we’d sit him and give it a week to see how that whole thing shakes down. So that’s one out of the picture.

Between Marshall, Bowe, and Jones, I’d start Jones (the Viqueens secondary is oh-so-beatable and Favre will be throwing a ton) and Marshall. Jay Cutler is likely going to start, and even when banged up he’s obviously an upgrade over Patrick Ramsey. Truth be told, I don’t like either matchup, but Bowe will be dealing with Champ Bailey all day and has been tailing off some as of late. So: Boldin, Jones, and Marshall.

I understand why Kenny “Elementary My Dear” Watson is a bust this week, but if my only other option is Warrick “Not Quite” Dunn do I still sit him? I also thought I’d mention I’m harboring Ladell “Taking All” Betts on my bench, but he’s useless until Portis keels over (don’t have a silly name for him….yet).

- “Zany” Zebulon Perphiperus III, Butte, MT

Andrew:
I’m a bigger Kenny Watson fan than most, but I think he needs to ride the pine this week against the formidable Ravens rush defense. They’re only giving up 74.1 yards a game and have surrendered just 2 rushing scores all season. They’re tough. Even though their secondarywas getting lit up last week, the Ravens played great against the run all game and only allowed Fast Willie Parker to go for 42 yards on 23 carries (1.8 YPC) with a long run on the day of 5 yards. I also think it’s wise to have Ladell Betts on your roster, but he can’t be started right now. Patience, I still see a Portis injury on the horizon and Betts could be a great flex play in the fantasy playoffs.

So yes, you do need to roll with Dunn this week. It pains me to say it though. The Falcons have been resting Dunn this week in anticipation of a heavy workload, and Jerious Norwood is going to be limited with that sore ankle. The Carolina rush defense is no longer a unit to fear, they give up 116.4 yards a game and have allowed 9 rushing touchdowns, fourth-most in the NFL. Excuse me, I have to take a shower.

Question: I’m thinking of starting D.J. Hackett for Marvin Harrison (if he sits). Got Dywane “Where the Heck Have You Been Since Week 4″ Bowe on my bench. Is Hackett a pretty solid starter if Marvin doesn’t go? Should I snag David Patten off the wire?

Ray Lewis, BodyMore, Murderland

Andrew:
To be honest, I’m surprised and slightly concerned that Harrison could miss this game. At this point it’s starting to feel like the Colts are being less than honest about his injury. If he does start you should obviously feel comfortable with him against a suspect San Diego secondary.

Patten should be added by somebody. The question is, who would you drop? He deserves to be owned in 12-team leagues at this point, and if you have somebody you can part with you should consider doing so and starting Patten.

DJ Hackett is another strong option playing at home against the San Fran defense, but he might have more competition for looks this weekend. Bowe is struggling through injury and inconsistent QB play right now, and the Denver passing defense should shut him out.

Hey Andrew and Brian – My WRs that are not on bye this week are Kevin Curtis, Derrick Mason, Dwayne Bowe, and Chris Henry. I was considering rolling the dice on (good guy) Henry. Good idea? Bad idea? THANKS

- Edward Curry, New York, NY

Andrew:
Hey Eddie. I agree with you here. I would go with Curtis, Mason and Henry. Like we said above, Bowe needs to sit this weekend while the Chiefs figure out their QB situation and his hammy heals. Henry probably isn’t in line for a huge game, but as I mentioned in the Crystal Ball, I think he has a good chance to score on Sunday.

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