Empty the Bench

The run to the fantasy playoffs is on, so who to start, who to bench, and who to plug in for a spot start is major bigtime importante. To aid your kingly quest for a title, ETB breaks down a few key fantasy matchups at all the positions that matter (sorry, kickers are a waste of skin). For each roster spot we’ll spell out our Five Strong Plays, a few players to Temper Your Expectations for, one Sneaky Play of the Week, and one Dud of the Week.

These are not always the guys we think will score the most points or score the least points: there will always be obvious situations and choices we ignore. These also aren’t all sneaky plays. These are just the matchups that we think deserve mention*.

With the NBA season underway, we have a slight change in format to the matchups from here on out. Don’t worry, it’s a good thing–we know you love the Fortune Cookies in ETB’s weekly Cheat Sheet, so we’re giving you more of them. Make sure to check back on these matchups next week to see how each one of our picks actually fared. That way you can either jump up and down in praise of ETB (likely) or scoff at our incompetence (very unlikely).

Cut ‘em, slash ‘em, stop ‘em–it’s ETB’s Week Ten Fantasy Football Matchups.

Five Strong Quarterback Plays

Drew Brees, New Orleans vs. STL
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh vs. CLE
Brett Favre, Green Bay vs. MIN
Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle vs. SF
Carson Palmer, Cincinnati @ BAL

Fortune Cookies: As a member of the very-average NFC South, the Saints have a very real shot at the playoffs after turning around their season with four straight wins. It’s been on the arm of Drew Brees, who hasn’t thrown less than 2 TD passes during this streak. On the road, the winless Rams will offer little resistance… Ben Roethlisberger may have single-handedly saved Brian’s season in the ETB league with his 5 MNF touchdown passes against the Ravens. We don’t expect five against the worst pass defense in football, but 2-3 is all but guaranteed… The Viqueens secondary is just barely better than Cleveland’s, and Brett Favre is spreading the ball around and getting big plays from his stable of wideouts. Expect the Packers to play aggressive football with the Division Title on the line…. With almost no running game to speak of, HC Mike Holmgren has put the onus on Matt Hasselbeck to lead the offense more than expected. He’s responded with three straight 2-TD pass weeks, a run that figures to extend against the banged-up ‘Niners… A national-television audience watched Roethlisberger shred the overrated Ravens’ secondary in the rain; Carson Palmer has been underwhelming, but he should still be good for at least 225 yards and 2 TDs against a beatable secondary that gambles too much and suffers against athletic widouts…

Temper Your Expectations

Kurt Warner, Arizona vs. DET
Derek Anderson, Cleveland @ PIT

Fortune Cookies: Yes, Kurt Warner is probably going to post solid yardage and probably around 2 TD passes or so against the Lions, but turnovers and big hits have to be a concern against the NFL’s leader in takeaways and fifth-overall DEF in sacks (24 through eight games)… Derek Anderson owners must hate Jamal Lewis for stealing all of the offense’s TDs last week against the Seahawks after Anderson did all the work between the goal lines. The Steelers shut down the run better than most at home, so no such thing should happen this week. Still, don’t expect huge things against one of the NFL’s top secondaries…

Sneaky Play of the Week

Marc Bulger, St. Louis @ NO

Fortune Cookie: Who would have thought coming into the season that Marc Bulger would ever need to be considered a sneaky play? Well, injuries have scraped this offense down to the bone, but with his team likely down early, Bulger will be throwing a lot in the second half. The Saints are giving nearly 300 passing yards a game over the last month. That’s what Jaguars’ second-stringer Quinn Gray was faced with last week, and he put up 354 yards and 2 TDs.

Dud of the Week

Philip Rivers, San Diego vs. IND

Fortune Cookie: Surprise surprise, the Colts were fielding the league’s best pass defense going into their Week 9 tilt with the Pats, which understandably left them a bit bleary-eyed and knocked them down to third overall. Still, allowing just 174.4/per ain’t too shabby, and they’ll have a chip on their shoulder this week after last week’s loss. Rivers actually made the Viqueens pass defense look good last week, which is no small feat. We expect this one to be all about LT for the Chargers’ offense.

Five Strong Running Back Plays

Reggie Bush, New Orleans vs. STL
Fast Willie Parker, Pittsburgh vs. CLE
Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo @ MIA
Kevin Jones, Detroit @ ARZ
Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants vs. DAL

Fortune Cookies: The Saints are averaging less than 95 yards rushing/per as a team, but Reggie Bush has been coming on lately and now has 50 receptions to go with 5 TDs (note how we don’t mention his actual rushing yardage, which would be embarassing for him). We expect a score, 5+ receptions, and another day of 100+ combined yards… After his quarterback hoarded all the TDs against the Ravens, we think Fast Willie Parker will respond against a porous Browns’ rush defense by racking up 120 yards on the ground and finding the endzone… If it weren’t for Purple Jesus, the league would be abuzz about the other stud rookie RB, Marshawn Lynch, who ran all over the Bengals in Week 9 (160 combined yards, 1 rushing TD, 1 passing TD) and now has 690 rushing yards on the season. If you can believe it, the Dolphins are even worse against the run than the Bungles… In their last three games the Cardinals are allowing nearly 150 total yards, 3.67 receptions and 1.33 TDs to opposing backs. Kevin Jones is a versatile type of running back who could post numbers very close to those or better. KJ didn’t see much action in a rout of the Broncos last week, but he’s been running strong for a month now and the Lions will lean on him this Sunday… After a Week 9 bye, Brandon Jacobs should be ready to roll at home on Sunday. The Dallas run defense has put up solid numbers thus far, but the NFC’s reigning Offensive Player of the Month will be too much for that defensive line to handle. Jacobs is such a physical freak and is so strong on the goal line that he’s a must-start every week. …

Temper Your Expectations

Kenny Watson, Cincinnati @ BAL
Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville @ TEN

Fortune Cookies: Kenny Watson has gone from unknown to fantasy-relevant back, but this is not the week to roll with him. The Ravens give up just 76.0 yards on the ground and have only allowed 2 rushing TDs all season. Baltimore is also going to come out angry after that thoroughly embarrassing loss on Monday Night Football, and we don’t think the Bungles line will hold up to the onslaught… The Tennessee defense has been the NFL’s biggest surprise on that side of the ball thus far. They allow 66.0 rushing yards a game, fewest in the NFL, have only surrendered 3 rushing scores and give up just 3.5 YPC. Scary as it is, they’ve been even better over the last month and haven’t allowed a rushing score in any of their last four games. To make matters worse, Maurice Jones-Drew is on pace for fewer touches this year than he received in his rookie campaign. Feel free to sit him if you have other strong options…

Sneaky Play of the Week

Kolby Smith, Kansas City vs. DEN

Fortune Cookie: You want to get sneaky? How about a player with 0 rushing yards on the season? Right now, early reports are that Larry Johnson is done for the year with a broken bone in his foot. That leaves a lot of carries for the Chiefs to split between Priest Holmes and Kolby Smith against the NFL’s most porous rush defense. We don’t have much faith in Holmes ability to stay on the field or be effective when he does, which makes Smith a bankable flex option for desperate owners.

Dud of the Week

Ryan Grant, Green Bay vs. MIN

Fortune Cookie: Minnesota has been the best rushing defense in the NFL ever since NT Pat Williams came to town. They have only given up 2 rushing scores and give up just 2.8 YPC. Meanwhile, their secondary is so poor that opposing offenses usually just give up on the run and throw all day, and the Packers are inclined to do just that already. It’s not a good situation for an undrafted rookie, and Ryan Grant should stay on your bench this week.

Five Strong Wide Receiver Plays

Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh vs. CLE
Lee Evans, Buffalo @ MIA
Plaxico Burress, New York Giants vs. DAL
Torry Holt, St. Louis @ NO
Marques Colston, New Orleans vs. STL

Fortune Cookies: We’re big Santonio Holmes fans at ETB and think this kid could be something special. He showed just how explosive he can be on Monday with 110 yards and 2 TDs on just 4 receptions. Cleveland fields the worst pass defense in football, both in terms of yards and TDs (20!) allowed. Start Santonio with confidence… It’s Lee Evans’ time of year. We pointed out the mind-boggling monthly splits on Friday in the Crystal Ball, and they’ve gotten even more impressive since then. With his partner in crime, JP Losman, under center and against an aging and slow Dolphins cornerback tandem, there’s no reason Evans shouldn’t keep it up… After scoring touchdowns in each of the first six games this season, Plexi Glass has been held out of the endzone in two straight. The sore ankle was really starting to slow Burress, but after a week to rest he should be ready to start another streak against an overrated Cowboys secondary… Torry Holt hasn’t been the fantasy stud we’ve come to expect, but for leagues that award points for receptions he’s averaged 5.75 a game and he’s still on pace for over 1,100 yards and 8 TDs. Still, we somehow expected more. And we’ll get it this weekend against a New Orleans defense that has been getting torched by opposing wideouts of late. Over the last month they’ve given up over 15 receptions and 210 yards a game to wide receivers, and Holt proved he can still light up a poor secondary in their last game against the Browns… Marques Colston is another guy having a solid season that we probably expected too much from but with 18 receptions, 244 yards and 3 TDs over the last two contests he’s back on track. Good news after just 8 receptions for 78 yards and 1 TD in the previous three weeks. He should eat the pathetic Rams secondary alive; they’re one of the worst units in football and have already surrendered 12 TD receptions…

Temper Your Expectations

Bernard Berrian, Chicago @ OAK
Chris Chambers, San Diego vs. IND

Fortune Cookies: Despite just 1 TD, Bernard Berrian is set to go over 1,000 yards and is in the middle of a fine season. He’s at the whim of the poor quarterback play in Chicago, but still represents a strong WR3 or flex play most weeks. Not this week though. Nnamdi Asomugha, one of ETB’s favorite corners, is having another Pro Bowl caliber campaign and should take Berrian out of the picture most of the day… Chris Chambers has made a speedy adjustment to new teammates and owners are feeling comfortable with him again, but this doesn’t project to be one of his stronger outings. The Colts are still the worst fantasy matchup in the NFL for wide receivers, and they’re going to he hopping mad after that embarrassment on Sunday…

Sneaky Play of the Week

Chris Henry, Cincinnati @ BAL

Fortune Cookie: One of the NFL’s elite red zone threats, Chris Henry has been activated for this matchup and could be a starter if Chad Johnson is forced to miss the game with a neck sprain. Either way, Henry figures to be active in a passing offense that has desperately needed a third wide receiver all season.

Dud of the Week

Vincent Jackson, San Diego vs. IND

Fortune Cookie: …And you know how painful it is for us to list one of our favorite up-and-coming wideouts in the NFL as our Week Ten Dud. The fact is that right now he has a good chance of catching less TD passes than he did last season, when he hauled in six. The last two weeks he’s been absolutely silent (2 catches for 21 yards combined), and he’ll again be fourth in the ‘Bolts offensive pecking order against the solid Colts passing D.

Five Strong Tight End Plays

Jason Witten, Dallas @ NYG
Greg Olsen, Chicago @ OAK
Donald Lee, Green Bay @ MIN
Vernon Davis, San Francisco @ SEA
Heath Miller, Pittsburgh vs. CLE

Fortune Cookies: Anyone else impressed by that helmet-less run into the endzone on Sunday night for Jason Witten? If you own him, you start him every week and expect a minimum of 5 receptions, 50 yards, and a possible score… Despite missing nearly all of the season’s first four weeks, Greg Olsen is the thirteenth-rated tight end in ETB’s scoring format, and this week he draws an Oakland defense that hasn’t been especially strong against the tight end. The cornerback with the unpronounceable name will be on Berrian all day, and it should have Griese looking for Olsen as his primary mid-range and deep threat most of the day… Donald Lee just signed a 4-year contract extension, so Bubba Franks should be out of the picture very soon. Lee has either 3 or 4 receptions in every game this season and draws an extremely beatable Vikings pass defense that suffers against tight ends… Since the return of Alex Smith, Vernon Davis has started putting up the kind of production we expected. Over the last two weeks he has 13 receptions for 148 yards and 1 TD. If Julian Peterson is going to be chasing Smith, that should leave Vernon open and mean the 49ers will need to dump off to him often… Heath Miller is one of Big Ben’s favorite redzone targets, and he should have little trouble operating against the sorry Browns’ pass defense…

Temper Your Expectations

Kellen Winslow, Jr., Cleveland @ PIT
Chris Cooley, Washington vs. PHI

Fortune Cookies: It’s a little risky betting against Kellen Winslow regardless of the situation, but he’s going to take some big hits over the middle and will have to work harder than usual to get his catches and yardage against the rolling Steelers defense… His quarterback is struggling, and Chris Cooley doesn’t have an overwhelming track record over his career against the Eagles; in seven games, he averages 3.5 receptions, 42 yards, and 0.14 TDs. Not bad, not great.

Sneaky Play of the Week

Randy McMichael, St. Louis @ NO

Fortune Cookie: Along with most of his other offensive teammates, Randy McMichael has been a pretty big fantasy disappointment so far, but could find some room against the Saints’ secondary, which gave up 4 receptions and 46 yards in Week 9 to the less-talented Mercedes Lewis.

Dud of the Week

L.J. Smith, Philadelphia @ WSH

Fortune Cookie: This season is turning into more and more of a wash for L.J. Smith, who registered his season-best effort last week against the Cowboys: 2 receptions for 34 yards. Injuries are really limiting him, and he’ll struggle again this week against the ‘Skins.

Five Strong Team Defense Plays

Kansas City Chiefs vs. DEN
Tennessee Titans vs. JAX
Chicago Bears @ OAK
Seattle Seahawks vs. SF
Detroit Lions @ ARZ

Fortune Cookies: It looks like both Jay Cutler and Travis Henry might play this week after being scraped off Ford Field in Detroit in Week Nine, but neither will be at full strength. If Cutler gets knocked out and Patrick Ramsey is called upon again, the surprising Kansas City Chiefs defense has a chance to replicate the Lions’ sack and turnover party. It might happen either way… Running the ball is Jacksonville’s strong suit (fifth overall in yards), while stopping it is the Tennessee Titans‘ strength (best in the NFL, allowing just 66/per). Something has to give in this pivotal AFC South matchup, and we’re putting our money on the home team… The Chicago Bears defense isn’t what it used to be–you knew injuries and age would catch up sooner or later–but they’re still no pushovers and draw a turnover-prone team in Oakland that they’ve had two full weeks to prepare for… The ‘Niners offense is a mess, and the Seattle Seahawks‘ solid defensive unit is one of many squads that overachieves at home… They give up yardage, but the Detroit Lions defense, led by first-year Defensive Coordinator Joe Barry, is racking up sacks and leads the NFL in turnovers. That trend will continue against the immobile and turnover-friendly Kurt Warner.

Temper Your Expectations

Baltimore Ravens vs. CIN
New York Giants vs. DAL

Fortune Cookies: No reason to think the Baltimore Ravens defense can’t shut down the Bengals’ running game, but they struggle against upper-echelon quarterbacks and wide receivers. The Bungles have very little to play for and will come into Baltimore with nothing to lose… We’ve voiced our skepticism about Tony Romo and the Cowboys offense repeatedly, but they continue to put up huge numbers and will be focused in this huge NFC East road game against the New York Giants. Play the Giants, but you’ll be getting your fantasy points on turnovers and sacks; they won’t hold Dallas under 21…

Sneaky Play of the Week

Buffalo Bills @ MIA

Fortune Cookie: The Buffalo Bills defense is ranked near the bottom against the pass, but they’ve improved as of late against the run and are now in the middle of the pack. (How exciting, I know.) This team knows this is a winnable game, and the Dolphins, clearly, don’t scare anybody.

Dud of the Week

Dallas Cowboys @ NYG

Fortune Cookie: We just don’t feel like the Dallas Cowboys‘ defense is all that good. Yes, they pretty much shut down the Eagles on Sunday night, but this is going to be a high-scoring contest and they’ll have trouble dealing with Brandon Jacobs, a rested Plaxico Burress, and good starting field position for the Giants O.

More Free Fantasy Football Advice for Week Ten

Week Ten Position Ranks

Week Ten Stock Report

ETB’s Week Ten Cheat Sheet

Week Ten Quick Hits

*Disclaimer: There are some players who are always must starts, and you should know who they are. To make things easy, we’ve picked a few guys at each position who will never be listed in our Top Matchups because it just wouldn’t be fair– they’re studs, simple as that. They are: QB Peyton Manning, QB Tom Brady, RB LaDainian Tomlinson, RB Adrian Peterson, WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR Randy Moss, TE Antonio Gates, DEF New England and DEF Baltimore.