Empty the Bench

The stock market and fantasy football share many similar traits. To conquer each, it’s crucial to keep your finger on the pulse of the market and to buy low and to sell high with your assets (or players). You want to avoid paying over market value, and getting in early on an emerging star can make your portfolio blossom… or in this case, help your fantasy team compete for a title.

With that theme in mind, your old friends at ETB have poured through all the Week Nine NFL action and are back to prepare you for Week Ten of the fantasy football season with an update on the latest gridiron heroes and zeroes.

Big Gainers:

Joseph Addai, RB, Indianapolis Colts: In running wild against the Patriots by land and by air, and after receiving the bulk of the workload for two consecutive weeks, Addai has proven himself a truly elite option and worthy of his high draft position. He’s one of the top three or four RBs in fantasy football (along with Tomlinson, Peterson and Westbrook) and is officially matchup-proof. As one of the few first-round picks to actually pan out this fantasy season, you can and need to start him every week.

Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints: We mentioned it in the Hangover, but Drew Brees has seen as remarkable a turnaround as any player in the NFL this season. For the first four weeks of the season his QB rating never reached 75.0, he only threw one touchdown and the Saints were 0-4. Now New Orleans has won four straight games, and during that run Brees’ QB rating has never dipped below 90.0 as he’s tossed 11 TDs. Again, regardless of matchup, he needs to be in your starting lineup.

Detroit Lions Team Defense: Nobody expected much out of the Lions DEF coming into the season, except maybe a favorable matchup for the opposing fantasy players. And after that 56-point drumming from the Eagles in Week Three, nobody was very surprised. In fact, over the first five weeks Detroit was allowing 31 points a game. Then they hit their bye week. Detroit started going with a more conservative game plan on offense, and defensive coordinator Joe Barry made some adjustments. They’ve only allowed 10 points a game since, and the Lions now lead the NFL in takeaways. And more importantly, they’re now the top-scoring defense in ETB’s format.

Justin Fargas, RB, Oakland Raiders: If he’s on the wire in your league, you should probably go pick him up after you finish this sentence. LaMont Jordan looks like a stuffed Thanksgiving turkey and likely will not be at even 75% for the rest of the season, and Fargas has performed admirably in his stead, rushing for 104 yards, 1 TD, and a solid 4.5 YPC against the Texans on Sunday. Tough matchups the next few weeks (vs. CHI, @ MIN), but he needs to be owned.

Marques Colston, WR, New Orleans Saints: With the departure of Joe Horn in the offseason, Colston was poised to assume the go-to role in one of the NFL’s most potent offenses. Unfortunately, the Saints’ offense stunk for the first month and the go-to role wasn’t worth all that much. Marques was consistent, but unspectacular. Over the last two weeks he’s managed 18 receptions for 244 yards and 3 TDs. That’s more like it.

Tony Gonzalez, TE, Kansas City Chiefs: Gonzo has been the best tight end of the last decade without question, and he’s likely the best tight end in the history of fantasy football. His numbers had started to take a dip the last two seasons though, likely as a result of a poor supporting case and an emphasis on the rushing game. Many believed that he had physically eroded, and that may be coming soon, but Tony is proving it hasn’t happened just yet. He’s now on pace for a remarkable 104 receptions, 1,230 yards and 8 TDs after this week’s 10-catch, 105-yard, 1-TD performance. Welcome back, buddy.

Reggie Williams, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jags are and will be a run-first team this season, but whether it’s David Garrard (could return this week) or Quinn Gray behind center, the team does need an at least semi-reliable option at WR, and Williams is making his case to be that guy as of late. Early it looked like Dennis Northcutt would fill the role, but he’s tailed off some and Williams leads the team in TD receptions with 4. I know, that’s kind of a pathetic total, but it’s the Jaguars’ passing attack we’re talking about. Worth a reach in deep leagues, but don’t go dropping anyone significant for him.

Greg Jennings, WR, Green Bay Packers: We had our doubts about the second-year wideout from Western Michigan and his ability to put up consistent fantasy stats, but he’s dispelled those doubts with real consistent, top-end production since sitting out the first two games. He now has 23 receptions for 454 yards and 6 TDs, which means he’s averaging one visit to the endzone every week. His 19.7 YPC is also leading the NFL.

Big Losers:

Donovan McNabb, QB, Philadelphia Eagles: This kind of statistical thing happens every week to a bunch of relevant fantasy players who perform poorly, but we have to do it to McNabb anyway. Lance Moore scored more fantasy points in Week 9 than the embattled Iggles signal-caller. So did Robert Royal, TJ Duckett, Drew Carter, and Sage Rosenfels. He looked plain bad against the Cowboys Sunday night, and his stats were padded by 14 checkdown passes to Brian Westbrook in garbage time. That’s just not going to cut it.

Travis Henry, RB, Denver Broncos: He looked terrible and the vaunted Denver rushing attack is clearly in remission. On top of that, the suspension may be pushed back, but Henry won’t be able to help you in the fantasy playoffs. If you can get anything in return, take it now. It seems like every week Henry suffers a new “minor” injury, and it’s getting to the point now where they’ve all added up to equal a running back on a significant statistical decline who, by the way, only has 1 TD all year.

Jerious Norwood, RB, Atlanta Falcons: Ugh. Just when it looked like Norwood was poised to take the starting role away from incumbent Warrick Dunn, Dunn goes and has his best game in a year. There was talk in local papers and from HC Bobby Petrino that Norwood would start to be featured more in the second half, starting this week, but he finished with just six carries for the fifth time in the last six games and still hasn’t managed double-digit carries this season. He’s also hobbled by an ankle injury, which just gives Petrino another reason to stick to his Dunn Guns.

Rudi Johnson, RB, Cincinnati Bengals: Yes, the Buffalo defense has played well at home this year. We’ve talked about it as much as anybody. But 9 carries for 11 yards and 1 catch for 6 more? That’s pathetic, no matter the condition of his hamstring. I’ve been a vocal critic of Johnson’s all season, but even I projected 30 yards. Meanwhile, Kenny Watson didn’t find a ton of room rushing but he did manage to post 101 total yards on the day. With the Bengals offensive line playing poorly, the team playing from behind nearly every play, and Johnson’s skills obviously diminished he’s not a fantasy starter anymore. Meanwhile, the more dynamic and versatile Kenny Watson is.

Stevonne Smith, WR, Carolina Panthers: We love Stevonne here at ETB. We think he’s one of the best pure talents in the NFL. Unfortunately, he plays wide receiver and he depends on somebody to throw him the ball. Carolina doesn’t have anybody who can do that very well. Truth be told they haven’t for a while, but they were extremely creative and inventive in ways to get him the ball and Jake Delhomme was just competent enough to pull it off. Sadly, David Carr and his white glove are not.

Vince Young, QB, Tennessee Titans: Young has some nice matchups on the docket, but you just can’t trust this guy right now. His production has been too sporadic, his receivers are mediocre at best, and there’s no reason to change an offensive game plan that revolves around feeding LenDale White 25+ carries a game (and, oh, how LenDale loves to be fed) and is working just well enough to keep the team in it because of that stout defense. Young hasn’t attempted more than 33 passes in any single contest this year.

Shaun Alexander, RB, Seattle Seahawks: Some NFL players after 30 continue to produce. Some do not. And it’s hard to tell which will be which, and that’s why we try to avoid guys on this side of 30 on draft day. It happens quickly. Alexander looks to be going down as one of the top-five or so fantasy busts of the ‘07 season, and if he keeps this up might find himself looking for a new team next year.

Jason Campbell, QB, Washington Redskins: He’s not a fantasy entity right now, and much to our chagrin he’s absolutely killing Santana Moss’ fantasy value, too. You’ve read us say lots of nice things about the young quarterback in the past, so don’t mistake this as a complete about-face on his talents or long-term prospects in the NFL. He’s going to get better and do some good things in Washington. It’s just not his time yet.

Sell High:

LaMont Jordan, RB, Oakland Raiders: Jordan still has a Yahoo! Projected Rank of 51 and an Actual Rank of 46. He’s sixteenth in overall running back production in the ETB scoring system. If you can get anywhere near that value, take it.

Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots: I’m out of my goddamn mind. I know that. And if you’re sane, don’t take this advice unless you get a pirate’s ransom in return. But for those of you who intend to win your leagues, you need to start considering that this guy might not be playing much in the fantasy championship game. Please don’t go nuts, but think about it.

Jamal Lewis, RB, Cleveland Browns: After those four very-short TD plunges, a lot of people are going to be fooled about this guy. The fact is he’s not very good and has been battling various injuries all year. Bah.

Buy Low:

Willie Parker, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers: Parker is in the middle of a season that has him on pace for 1/4 of his total TDs from last season and coming off a rough matchup against the Ravens. He draws the Browns, Jets, Dolphins and Bengals the next four weeks.

Roy Williams, WR, Detroit Lions: It’s a little shocking that Roy has now gone five weeks straight without a score after riding a five-week streak on the flipside. He also hasn’t topped 100 yards receiving since Week 3. Favorable matchups are on the horizon, however, and this guy has Pro-Bowl talent.

Selvin Young, RB, Denver Broncos: As we mentioned above, it’s only a matter of time.

More Free Fantasy Football Advice for Week Ten

Week Ten Position Ranks

ETB’s Week Ten Matchups

ETB’s Week Ten Cheat Sheet

Week Ten Quick Hits