Empty the Bench

Playing fantasy football and playing the stock market require similar skills. To master each, it’s crucial to have your finger on the pulse of the market in order to buy low and to sell high with your assets (or players). You want to avoid paying over market value for your players, and getting in early on an emerging stud can make your portfolio blossom… or in this case, make your fantasy roster win a title.

With that theme in mind, your good friends at ETB sort through all the Week 7 NFL action and help you get all set for Week 8 of the fantasy football season with updates on the latest gridiron heroes and zeroes.

Big Gainers:

Jesse Chatman, RB, Miami Dolphins: Those Ronnie Brown owners who didn’t believe in handcuffing their studly RB1 to his backup are paying for their insolence dearly this morning. Brown will miss the team’s final nine games of the season with damage to his ACL, which thrusts former San Diego Charger Chatman into the starting role for the 0-7 Dolphins. It was a laugher on Sunday filled with about 45 minutes of garbage time, so don’t read too much into it, but after stepping in Chatman rushed 7 times for 73 yards and 1 TD. HC Cam Cameron is familiar with the former undrafted free agent from their days in San Diego, and for his part Chatman performed well during fill-in duty for LT back in ’05, sporting a healthy 6.0 YPC and scoring 3 TDs in limited action. The ‘Fins have an unmerciful schedule ahead of them, but Chatman has some talent and is a solid flex play most weeks.

Kenny Watson, RB, Cincinnati Bengals: If there wasn’t one before, there certainly is one now. We’re talking, of course, about that trendy trend of trends in the NFL, the Running Back Timeshare, and after his career-best performance against the lowly Jets, Kenny Watson has solidified a role in the Bengals offense, even when incumbent workhorse Rudi Johnson returns. On the day, Watson punched the pigskin into the endzone three times while racking up 157 total yards and a respectable 4.2 YPC. He’s missed two full seasons (’03 and ’05) since entering the league as an undrafted free agent back in ’02, but Watson looks pretty healthy for now and is a better receiver out of the backfield than Johnson. Don’t expect the world (especially against PIT and BAL in Weeks 8 and 10, respectively), but the Bengals put points on the board and he’s a very solid flex play until further notice.

Tony Scheffler, TE, Denver Broncos: There’s something to be said for young players in this league practicing together on the second- and third-string squads, developing a chemistry, then translating that to Sunday action once they’re elevated to the starting unit. We’re seeing that between second-year players Jay Cutler and Scheffler, who hooked up for a short TD pass in the Broncos’ thrilling 31-28 win over the Steelers. The big 6’5″ tight end finished with 5 catches for 50 yards, and will benefit from Stephen Alexander’s recent retirement and the absentee performance of Daniel Graham. This is the guy who scored four times in the last four games of the ’06 season and averaged 15.9 YPC–it’s no coincidence his production saw an uptick when Cutler took over for Jake Plummer.

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- How about those Patriots? That was about as sound an ass whooping as you’re going to see in today’s NFL. They came out and dominated the Dolphins through the air, and Tom Brady probably cemented himself as the best quarterback in the league. At one point Brady was 11/11 with 220 yards and 4 TDs— and that was with 6:47 left in the second quarter. Their receiving corps was simply amazing. Donte’ Stallworth scored the first TD with style, performing a Madden-esque spin between two Miami defensive backs en route to the endzone. And Randy Moss was blanketed by defenders on both of his touchdowns, but he once again showed that he has perhaps the greatest ball skills of any wide receiver in NFL history. Moss finished with 4 receptions for 122 yards and 2 touchdowns. He just makes things happen. How did they get this guy for a fourth-round pick?

The Pats leading receiver was Wes Welker, though, a guy they got from the ‘Fins in the offseason. He managed 9 receptions for 138 yards and 2 more TDs. Even Kyle Brady got in on the action, hauling in 3 passes which included a 2-yard TD. Going forward you just have to start your Pats ever week, and you need to start whoever faces the Dolphins as well.

- ‘Twas another fabulous day for Seattle Seahawks RB Shaun Alexander, who can now be officially added to the growing list of first-round fantasy busts. At home, against an awful Rams team that trots out the 27th-ranked rush defense in the NFL, Alexander toted the rock 19 times for 47 yards and 0 TDs. This marks the second straight week he’s recorded a pitiful 2.5 YPC, and he hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 2. Just two seasons removed from his monster 27 TD, 1,880 yards rushing season, Alexander has developed into one of the most depressing fantasy presences of ’07. Yuck.

- Kevin Jones got his first start of the year for the Detroit Lions and looked good against the decent Tampa Bay Bucs defense, carrying the ball 15 times for 76 yards, catching 6 passes for 34 yards, and scoring. Plan on OC Mike Martz riding KJ as long as his foot holds up and relegating backups Tatum Bell and Tico Duckett to spot duty. Jones was sharp and clearly helps balance out the Lions offense in ways that Bell wasn’t able to over the first five weeks. Consider Jones a very strong WR/RB flex for now, but he should be elevated to a solid RB2 very soon.

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1. Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers: We’re going to ignore the soap opera out in LA and assume Bryant is on the court for the opener in a Lakers jersey. Based purely on what he can do on that court, Bryant is probably the best player in the NBA. He’s also one of the best players in fantasy basketball, if not the best. You aren’t going to find anybody else who can string together 50-points games like Bryant, or anybody who can drop 81 like he did two years ago. What’s more amazing is that he finds time to drop 5 assists, grab 6 boards and snag around 1.5 steals. He can buoy your FT% by himself by attempting 10 a game and hitting over 85% of them, and he won’t kill your FG% with is 46.3% shooting. He even hits a couple of threes a game. The only thing to worry about is the 3+ turnovers, but that should not be much of a consideration with your first-round pick: you want a guy who has the ball in his hands this much.

2. Vince Carter, New Jersey Nets: He doesn’t come close in real life, but in a strict fantasy-basketball sense Vince is a poor man’s Kobe. He provides pretty much the same arsenal, just a tad worse in every category. Playing with the ageless Jason Kidd makes Carter look good every night, and he has elite natural talent. His line of 25 points, nearly 5 assists, 6 boards, 1 steal and almost 2 three-pointers is extremely valuable. Vince can fill it up, but so can a lot of other SG/SFs so you shouldn’t think about drafting him until the middle of the second round.

3. Ray Allen, Boston Celtics: Nobody knows how this new Celtic lineup is going to work in terms of fantasy production, but it’s probably safe to assume Ray won’t have the ball in his hands as much as he did in years past. Then again, he should also find himself open a lot more on the perimeter, and that’s scary. The guy has attempted more than 8 three-pointers a game each of the last two seasons, and he knocks down a tidy 39.7% of them. He can carry your team in threes, and he’s also a fantastic source of help in FT% where he usually attempts over 5 per game and hits around 90% of ‘em. He’ll also give you some help with around 4 assists, 4.5 boards and 1.5 steals to go with 25 points. The FG% isn’t ideal (43.8% on 21 attempts last season), but it’s not for a lack of touch and we expect him to force fewer shots and get more quality looks this season.

4. Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat: Because of the various injury concerns that always seem to be swirling about the 6-4 slasher, Wade is a prime candidate to slide into the third round of your draft (he’s out until at least December). If you’re the patient type and don’t mind rooting for a member of the loathsome Heat, snap him in such a scenario. When he’s on the court Wade is a fantasy goldmine–just take a look at his per-game averages from 06/07: 27.4 points, 7.5 assists, 4.7 boards, 2.1 steals, 49% FG, 80% FT, even 1.2 blocks (!). The Heat just don’t have much depth, and Wade will again be counted on to carry them.

5. Tracy McGrady, Houston Rockets: If we knew he’d play a full slate of games, we’d feel a lot more comfortable drafting McGrady. His tremendous production warrants a pick in the third round, but his chronic bad problems make him somebody we avoid on draft day. He’s managed just 118/164 games the last two seasons and taken himself out of numerous others early. When he is on the court his FG% (never above 43.1% in Houston, always over 20 attempts) and FT% (75.2% on 6.5 attempts career) will kill you. Things could be different this year though, new HC Rick Adelman is the offensive mind behind the Sacramento Kings of the late 90s and early 00s and the Portland Trailblazers of the early 90s. He should open things up a lot more than the strictly defensive-minded Jeff van Gundy. And you can’t quibble with McGrady’s 24.6 points, 1.3 steals, 6.5 assists, 5.3 boards and 1.8 threes from last year.

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We’re all about the bold predictions here at ETB. We enjoy analyzing and second-guessing other experts’ picks, but we’ll also put ourselves out there, too. So in the days leading up to Sunday’s NFL action, we’ll both be peering into our magical crystal ball–the one from Pee Wee’s Big Adventure–and posting the daring predictions that come to us.

Many will come true, but more of them will not. That’s why we’ll be bragging about them when we nail it. Repeatedly. And when they don’t, well, you’ll have to remind us about it because we won’t be bringing it up. Ladies and Germs, it’s ETB’s NFL Week Seven Crystal Ball.

Andrew’s Predictions:

1. I’m a Ronnie Brown fan, but he’s going to grind to a halt this weekend. Bill Belichick said this week that Brown is the best offensive player the Pats have faced so far, so you better believe they’re going to have a gameplan for him. Add in the loss of Chris Chambers to stretch the field and a completely overwhelmed Cleo Lemon facing the frightening New England defense and the Dolphins won’t be going anywhere. Brown finishes with 50 yards rushing and 6 receptions for 30 more yards.

2. Anquan Boldin makes a big splash in his return. Whether it’s Tim Rattay or Kurt Warner under center, the Cardinals QB is going to be doing his damnedest to get rid of the ball quickly. Boldin makes a meal out of short slants, stiff arms and runs after the catch and goes over 100 yards on the day.

3. The Houston rushing defense is struggling a bit, and with Chris Brown hobbled LenDale White has yet another chance to put his stamp on the Tennessee backfield. I think he finally takes advantage this week. I like him for at least 1 rushing TD, and if Vince “Vulture” Young misses the game I’ll take LenDale for 2 TDs. Put him down for 95 yards combined either way.

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You have fantasy football problems, we have expert advice. We’ve been receiving (and answering) many many fantasy football questions lately in the comments, so to serve the greater good we’ll collect them all in one place every Saturday and make it easier for you, loyal reader, to find them.

Some of these Q&A’s will pertain to your fantasy roster; many of them will not. If you have a question for us, drop a direct email to brian@emptythebench.com no later than 3pm on Fridays and we’ll do our best to address your question in the mailbag. Or you can feel free to post it somewhere in the comments. Please understand that volume will dictate whether or not we get to everyone. And, of course, if you have friends bugging you on who to start and who to bench every week, tell ‘em about ETB and we’ll fix their wagon. Fix it real good.

As always, we try to tell you what moves have the greatest probability of success. We’re not (technically) clairvoyant. Keep in mind that the right decision is the one that has the greatest probability of producing the desired results, not the one that actually does. Trading Brandon Jacobs for LT is the right move, even if LT breaks his leg on Sunday. Hitting with 20 showing is the wrong move, even if there’s an ace on top of the deck.

Onto the questions… names have been changed to protect the innocent.

I think you guys are the best. Question: do you guys think Shaun Alexander is a
bust this year? I was going trade him for Jones-Drew and some other players involved. My thinking is that Alexander gets all the carries and JD shares with Fred Taylor. I would appreciate your opinion on this. Thank you for your time.

- Rupert Pupkin, New York, NY

Andrew:
If I hadn’t been watching the Seahawks this year I’d say it was too early to call somebody with Shaun Alexander’s track record a bust. Unfortunately, I have seen a lot of Alexander and he looks terrible. He just doesn’t have any burst, isn’t breaking tackles and the offensive line isn’t what it used to be. He looks like a worn down 30-year-old running back that has already signed the last big contact of his career. If you can get anywhere near first-round value for him, take the deal.

It all hinges on who you would get in addition to MJD though. Jones-Drew is a mid-level RB2 going forward who has the natural talent to explode on any given week, which is more than you can say for Alexander. If your trading partner is willing to include another borderline starter at any position, take the deal. If I were you I would wait to see what Shaun does this weekend against the Rams, then deal him before the bye week. If you intend to win your league, you don’t want to start Alexander in the championship game against the Ravens.

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Starting the studs at RB, QB, and WR is easy, but fantasy championships are won with the well-informed decisions we all make on fringe starters every week. We agonize over these players until 7 minutes before kickoff, then kick ourselves about the guys we started 8 minutes after kickoff; we’re talking about the RB2, WR3, WR/TE Flex, and WR/RB Flex plays.

Unless you’re prepared to carefully groom the fringes of your fantasy roster, your team will underwhelm. These things are rarely easy, but fortunately ETB is at your disposal to help you settle on a comfortable decision. If you make the right calls, you’re a genius. If you’re wrong, shame on you.

Every week during the fantasy season, in addition to our overall Player Rankings and all the other weekly fantasy goodness, we’ll also rank the guys likely giving you a headache and help out with quick thoughts on what to expect from each one. Unlike the Position Rankings, these names are not drawn from the entire player pool.

Send for reinforcements in Custer City–Empty the Bench’s Week Seven Cheat Sheet is here.

Week 7 Cheat Sheet Rankings

Week 7 Wide Receiver #3 Ranks

1. Patrick Crayton, Dallas vs. MIN
2. Derrick Mason, Baltimore @ BUF
3. Santana Moss, Washington vs. ARZ
4. Bobby Engram, Seattle vs. STL
5. Jerricho Cotchery, New York Jets @ CIN
6. Brandon Marshall, Denver vs. PIT
7. Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh @ DEN
8. Bernard Berrian, Chicago @ PHI
9. Donte’ Stallworth, New England @ MIA
10. Calvin Johnson, Detroit vs. TB

Fortune Cookies: The Vikings field the NFL’s worst pass defense (288.4 yards/per), so Tony Romo will be throwing all day and night; Patrick Crayton scores again… Hard to believe Derrick Mason is the league leader in receptions at 49, but he’s getting it done and should be good for another 6 or 7 catches against the porous Bills secondary… He hasn’t been doing much lately and has been slowed by a nagging injury, but we like Santana Moss to make a big play this week against the Cards… Looks like D.J. Hackett will sit this one out, which means at least another week of Bobby Engram being Matt Hasselbeck’s top target (and the Rams kind of suck, too, by the way)… We’re starting to sound like a broken record–still no TDs for Jerricho Cotchery, but the Bungles can’t stop the pass and the Jets figure to throw a ton… Brandon Marshall will remain the Broncos’ WR1 for the forseeable future with Javon Walker out indefinitely (pending arthroscopic knee surgery), but has a tough matchup against Deshea Townsend & Co… The return of Hines Ward should take some of the attention away from Santonio Holmes, but it’s tough throwing on the Broncos at Mile High… Bernard Berrian caught a 39-yard TD pass last week, but Brian Griese will be up and down all year… We expect a rush-heavy second half for the Patriots after staking a big lead in the first, so Donte’ Stallworth might need to get his early… With a week to let his sore back further heal, we think Calvin Johnson will (finally) be more involved in the Lions’ pass attack and catch at least five passes.

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Jarvis Hayes, the Pistons’ biggest free agent acquisition of the summer, was gracious enough to take a few minutes to sit down over email and answer some questions for Empty the Bench. Mr. Hayes was the 10th overall pick out of Georgia in the 2003 NBA draft and spent his first four NBA seasons with the Washington Wizards. The 6’8″ forward is known as a versatile, athletic and efficient wing who can score from all over the floor and plays strong defense. Although he’s suffered a number of unfortunate injuries in his young career, the 25-year-old is now fully recovered and ready to provide Detroit with an excellent backup to Tayshaun Prince in the team’s quest for a title. He’s looked fantastic in preseason play–even taking minutes at PF due to injuries–and is poised to provide instant offense off the Pistons bench. Mr. Hayes talks with ETB about his charity, The Jarvis Hayes Foundation, the Detroit Pistons’ chances against Boston, and reveals his favorite restaurant in Washington DC.

Empty the Bench: You’re joining a veteran squad with some clearly defined roles. What do you think you can bring to the table? How do you envision your role in Detroit this season?

Jarvis Hayes: I think I can be a sparkplug coming off of the bench. These guys have great chemistry, and I believe I can be a good bench scorer and put some points on the board.

Empty the Bench: Are you friends with any guys on the squad?

Jarvis Hayes: Basketball is like a fraternity, so I knew some of the guys from college and just from being in the league for a few years.

Empty the Bench: How familiar are you with Flip Saunders and the rest of the coaching staff?

Jarvis Hayes: I personally wasn’t too familiar with Coach Saunders prior to coming here. I did know though he has an impeccable record as far as coaching winning ball clubs, so I am very happy to play for him.

Empty the Bench: The Celtics are the talk of the NBA right now, but these guys have never played together before. How important is a team like the Pistons’ chemistry and experience together, and how well do you think your new team matches up with Boston?

Jarvis Hayes: The good thing about the Pistons is that we only have a few new pieces to the puzzle. There is a good core group here, which is great. I think we will match up well with Boston and I look forward to playing them.

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It’s been seven long, long days since a new edition of Empty the Bench’s weekly fantasy football rankings. Take heart, the wait is over. Every Thursday we’ll give you our top 20 QBs, 25 RBs, 25 WRs, 15 TEs, and 15 Team Defenses based on recent performance, injuries, bye weeks, and matchups. There’s a ton of conflicting ranks out there, but there’s only a few you can really count on. We’d like to think we’re one of ‘em. Dazzling in their accuracy, it’s ETB’s Week 7 Fantasy Rankings… kickers have been left on the sideline.

More Week Seven Fantasy Advice:

ETB’s Week Seven Matchups

ETB’s Week Seven Stock Report

ETB’s Week Seven Quick Hits

ETB’s Week Seven Cheat Sheet

Fantasy Week 7: Top 20 Quarterbacks

1. Tom Brady, New England @ MIA
2. Carson Palmer, Cincinnati vs. NYJ
3. Tony Romo, Dallas vs. MIN
4. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis @ JAX
5. Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle vs. STL
6. Eli Manning, New York Giants vs. SF
7. Jeff Garcia, Tampa Bay @ DET
8. Jon Kitna, Detroit vs. TB
9. Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia vs. CHI
10. Drew Brees, New Orleans vs. ATL
11. Jason Campbell, Washington vs. ARZ
12. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh @ DEN
13. Chad Pennington, New York Jets @ CIN
14. David Garrard, Jacksonville vs. IND
15. Matt Schaub, Houston vs. TEN
16. Brian Griese, Chicago @ PHI
17. Vince Young, Tennessee @ HOU
18. Cleo Lemon, Miami vs. NE
19. Damon Huard, Kansas City @ OAK
20. Kyle Boller, Baltimore @ BUF

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- Despite the obnoxious secrecy games and three card Monty being played with the injury report, it appears that Laurence Maroney will return to action this week. If he does play, you’ll want to be sure to start him against one of the worst rushing defenses in football. As always, though, when you own a Belichick player be sure to check the news on Sunday morning.

- Anquan Boldin returned to full practice Wednesday and is set to resume his usual starting role this week. You have to start him, but it’s not a fantastic situation with Tim “Turn Away from the TV” Rattay behind center and the Redskins defense likely forgoing their Saturday meal to save room for the main course on Sunday.

- Speaking of Cardinals quarterbacks, as ugly as it looked Kurt Warner is not expected to miss more than a week. He could even see some playing time against Washington if things get especially bad, or if Rattay somehow keeps them in the game and Ken Whisenhunt thinks Warner can push the offense over the hump.

**UPDATE** NFL Network’s Adam Schefter is now reporting that Warner is probable to start. Praise the Lawd!

- In other Bird-related quarterback news, Falcons HC Bobby Petrino has made the switch from Joey Harrington to Byron Leftwich and says the move is permanent. It’s the right call–this offense has been stuck in neutral for what feels like a century, and while he seems like a nice enough guy, Harrington is not and never has been starting material in the NFL. Now if Petrino could only wipe away the rest of the crust in his eyes and bench Warrick Dunn, who looks awful out there, in favor of the much more explosive Jerious Norwood, we’d pat him on the back with even more fervor.

- Trent Dilfer, we hardly knew ye. While ETB was looking forward to cracks about Dilfer’s pot belly and affinity for cream-filled anythings throughout the season, it looks like incumbent starter Alex Smith will return to the starting lineup this week against the Giants, barring any setback. The tight end whose nuts we were most riding in the preseason, Vernon Davis, is also set to go after sitting out a few weeks with a banged-up knee. Wait a week on both before thinking of starting them.

**UPDATE** It now appears Dilfer will get another start. Expect something like 350 yards passing, 6 TDs, and 0 INTS.

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To aid your push for a spot in the fantasy playoffs, the fantasy experts at Empty the Bench examine some key fantasy matchups at all the positions that count. Kickers, of course, do not fall into that category. For each roster spot we’ll recommend Five Strong Plays, list a few guys to Temper Your Expectations for, one or two Sneaky Plays of the Week, and one Dud of the Week.

These are not always the players we think will score the most or score the least points: there are always obvious situations and choices we don’t mention. These also aren’t all sneaky, sneaky plays. These are just the matchups that we feel deserve mention.*

Make sure to check back on these weekly articles the following Monday to see how each of our picks actually panned out. That way you can either pay your respects (very likely) or sneer at our incompetence (nuh uh).

Come hell or high water, it’s Empty the Bench’s Week 7 Matchups at your disposal. Now go out there and slay the weaklings.

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