Empty the Bench

1. Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers: We’re going to ignore the soap opera out in LA and assume Bryant is on the court for the opener in a Lakers jersey. Based purely on what he can do on that court, Bryant is probably the best player in the NBA. He’s also one of the best players in fantasy basketball, if not the best. You aren’t going to find anybody else who can string together 50-points games like Bryant, or anybody who can drop 81 like he did two years ago. What’s more amazing is that he finds time to drop 5 assists, grab 6 boards and snag around 1.5 steals. He can buoy your FT% by himself by attempting 10 a game and hitting over 85% of them, and he won’t kill your FG% with is 46.3% shooting. He even hits a couple of threes a game. The only thing to worry about is the 3+ turnovers, but that should not be much of a consideration with your first-round pick: you want a guy who has the ball in his hands this much.

2. Vince Carter, New Jersey Nets: He doesn’t come close in real life, but in a strict fantasy-basketball sense Vince is a poor man’s Kobe. He provides pretty much the same arsenal, just a tad worse in every category. Playing with the ageless Jason Kidd makes Carter look good every night, and he has elite natural talent. His line of 25 points, nearly 5 assists, 6 boards, 1 steal and almost 2 three-pointers is extremely valuable. Vince can fill it up, but so can a lot of other SG/SFs so you shouldn’t think about drafting him until the middle of the second round.

3. Ray Allen, Boston Celtics: Nobody knows how this new Celtic lineup is going to work in terms of fantasy production, but it’s probably safe to assume Ray won’t have the ball in his hands as much as he did in years past. Then again, he should also find himself open a lot more on the perimeter, and that’s scary. The guy has attempted more than 8 three-pointers a game each of the last two seasons, and he knocks down a tidy 39.7% of them. He can carry your team in threes, and he’s also a fantastic source of help in FT% where he usually attempts over 5 per game and hits around 90% of ‘em. He’ll also give you some help with around 4 assists, 4.5 boards and 1.5 steals to go with 25 points. The FG% isn’t ideal (43.8% on 21 attempts last season), but it’s not for a lack of touch and we expect him to force fewer shots and get more quality looks this season.

4. Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat: Because of the various injury concerns that always seem to be swirling about the 6-4 slasher, Wade is a prime candidate to slide into the third round of your draft (he’s out until at least December). If you’re the patient type and don’t mind rooting for a member of the loathsome Heat, snap him in such a scenario. When he’s on the court Wade is a fantasy goldmine–just take a look at his per-game averages from 06/07: 27.4 points, 7.5 assists, 4.7 boards, 2.1 steals, 49% FG, 80% FT, even 1.2 blocks (!). The Heat just don’t have much depth, and Wade will again be counted on to carry them.

5. Tracy McGrady, Houston Rockets: If we knew he’d play a full slate of games, we’d feel a lot more comfortable drafting McGrady. His tremendous production warrants a pick in the third round, but his chronic bad problems make him somebody we avoid on draft day. He’s managed just 118/164 games the last two seasons and taken himself out of numerous others early. When he is on the court his FG% (never above 43.1% in Houston, always over 20 attempts) and FT% (75.2% on 6.5 attempts career) will kill you. Things could be different this year though, new HC Rick Adelman is the offensive mind behind the Sacramento Kings of the late 90s and early 00s and the Portland Trailblazers of the early 90s. He should open things up a lot more than the strictly defensive-minded Jeff van Gundy. And you can’t quibble with McGrady’s 24.6 points, 1.3 steals, 6.5 assists, 5.3 boards and 1.8 threes from last year.

**ETB is currently seeking out writers and bloggers to participate in the 2007-08 ETB Fantasy Basketball Extravaganza. It is a standard Yahoo!, 9-category, head-to-head league. The draft is set for Tuesday, October 23, at 8:15pm EDT. If interested, please contact us at andrew@emptythebench.com.**

6. Michael Redd, Milwaukee Bucks: Sweet-shooting Michael Redd is an ETB favorite, and you might be able to snag him at a bargain price after last season’s injury. Redd is much better in fantasy than he is in real life, where his defensive liabilities and one-dimensional game come through more. We don’t care about those deficiencies in fantasy though, all we care about are his tremendous numbers. We project a line in the neighborhood of 25 points, 2 three-pointers, 1.2 steals, 3 assists and 4 rebounds on 46% FGs (nearly 20 attempts) and 85% FTs (nearly 8 attempts) with just 2 TOs. That’s efficiency and offensive production, but be sure to look for the hustle guys, rebounders and passers later on to pair with him.

7. Joe Johnson, Atlanta Hawks: Johnson was on his way to a monster season last year before going down with a calf injury that limited him to 57 games. Don’t let it bother you, he’s now fully healed and was an absolute iron man before the injury, playing in nearly 400 consecutive games. He’s improved his scoring average in each season of his 6-year NBA career, and is still getting better. At 6′7″, Johnson a great passer who will occasionally run the point and can shoot the lights out. There are a lot of developing weapons in Atlanta, but we’re expecting 25 points, 5 assists, 5 boards, 1 steal and 2 three-pointers on 46% FGs (19 attempts) and 77% FTs (5 attempts) with just over 3 TOs.

8. Kevin Martin, Sacramento Kings: Now arguably the franchise player for the Kings, Martin inked a long-term extension over the summer and should probably be starting this season as the reigning Comeback Player of the Year (he narrowly lost out to GS’s Monta Ellis, below). His shooting form is somewhat unorthodox, but Martin can fill it up with the best of ‘em, shooting just over 47% FG in 06/07 while averaging 20 points, double of what he put up the previous year. We’re hoping he sees an uptick in steals and assists this year, and would like to see him nail just a few more three-pointers and push his per-game average up over 2.

9. Manu Ginobli, San Antonio Spurs: Manu provides a sneaky fantasy line that won’t wow you in any category, but ends up being extremely useful on the whole. He stays reasonably involved in all facets of the game despite limited minutes and will give your squad a remarkably predictable line of around 16 points, 4 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.5 three-pointers with 2 TOs. Boring, but useful. His steady 46% FGs on 10 attempts and 80% FTs on 5 attempts are also nice from a SG.

10. Brandon Roy, Portland Trailblazers: We’d probably have ETB favorite Roy a few spots higher on this list if it weren’t for that worrisome, recurring heel problem that’s plagued him already in the preseason. It looks like he’ll need surgery at some point, and we wonder if he’ll be able to make it through the whole season before doing it. Caveat emptor, but last season’s ROY (how apropos) is a fantastic all-around player who figures to only get better as he matures along with the tremendous collection of young talent around him. He shoots high percentages (45.6 FG and 83.8 FT), will average around 20 points/per, and chips in at least 1 three-pointer and 1 steal every night. He often runs the point in late-game situations and we expect an improvement on his 4 assists per as well.

11. Jason Richardson, Charlotte Bobcats: Some think the up-and-coming Bobcats took a major gamble when they acquired Richardson and his huge contract, but we like the move and think he makes a lot of sense paired with Gerald Wallace, Raymond Felton, and Emeka Okafor (since we all know Adam Morrison is not and maybe never will be ready to start). J-Rich hasn’t played a full season since 02/03, but he’s a pure scorer who should see his per-game average shoot back up to around 20-21 after it dipped last year to 16. He’s always been a great source of threes and averaged 2.6 three-pointers during the playoffs last year, and he’ll have the green light to keep shooting them in Charlotte.

12. Ben Gordon, Chicago Bulls: Ben Gorson has the pretty rainbow jumper to be one of the premier scorers in the NBA but he’s still not consistent and there are a lot of mouths to feed in Chicago. He’s not going to give you anything in terms of hustle stats, but Gordon took major strides last season on the offensive end and is still emerging. He’s worth a gamble in the 5th or 6th round and you can expect a 22-points, 4-assist, 2-three-pointer, 3-turnover return on that investment. His percentages also saw huge improvements last season (up to 45.5% FGs and a tremendous 86.4% FTs), and if he continues to improve at this rate he’ll be one of the steals of the draft.

13. Mike Miller, Memphis Grizzlies: Something about the seven-year vet has always bothered us. Maybe it’s because we think he’s one of the worst ROYs in the last two decades, and it probably has something to do with that embarrassing haircut. Personal and unfounded grudges aside, Miller achieved career high per-game averages for the 06/07 season in points (18.5), assists (4.3), field goals made (6.6) and three-pointers (2.9). You should be especially keen on that last one, but we’re not convinced he’ll put up the same kind of stats this season with so much emerging talent around him. He also hasn’t played a full season since his rookie year, and he still has a silly haircut. What’s with that hairband?

14. Richard Hamilton, Detroit Pistons: Rip City is one of those players whose All-Star caliber game doesn’t translate especially well to the fantasy realm. Now entering his ninth NBA season, Hamilton’s biggest assets are his high FG and FT percentages (45.1 and 85%, respectively, over his career) and points, of which he averaged just under 20 last season. He also keeps his turnovers low, but doesn’t add much in the way of three-pointers, steals, or assists. Still, many of your fellow owners overlook percentages on draft day, so if your goal is to win those categories, Hamilton is solid. Don’t worry much about the sprained ankle that’s kept him out of the preseason.

15. Jason Terry, Dallas Mavericks: Terry has come a long way from his high-scoring, huge-turnover, low-FG% days in Atlanta and settled in for the Mavs as one of the most efficient guards in fantasy hoops. Despite concerns that Devin Harris would finally emerge and steal his minutes, Terry had one of his better seasons as a pro last year with 16.7 points, 1 steal, 2 three-pointers, 5.2 assists and less than 2 TOs with very fantasy-friendly 48.4% shooting from the field and 80.4% from the line. Expect a similar line this year.

16. Ricky Davis, Minnesota Timberwolves: This could end up being way too low for Ricky. If the Wolves decide they want to give him his usual 37-40 minutes a game Davis is going to put up 20 points, and around 5 boards, 5 assists, more than 1 steal, more than 1 three-pointer and shoot 45% and 80% with a lot of TOs. He’s the only proven outside scorer on this squad, and he loves to have the ball in his hands. We get the feeling he’s not going to get those minutes though. There’s a major youth movement in the Twin Cities and it doesn’t behoove the Wolves to give heavy tick to such a bad apple when they should use it on developing their kids.

17. Monta Ellis, Golden State Warriors: Don Nelson says Ellis is going to come off the bench behind rookie Marco Belinelli, but we don’t buy it. My Pet Rock is one of the most dynamic young offensive players in basketball, and he’s also quick in the passing lanes on D. He really reminds us of a young Allen Iverson, but taller and with less touch outside. He makes up for that lack of touch with exceptional quicks and an explosive first step, which allowed him to get to the basket and shoot 47.5% from the floor last season. He’s going to turn the ball over, but there aren’t too many guys with his upside who you can pencil in for 18 points, nearly 2 steals and over 4 assists with that FG%.

18. Stephen Jackson, Golden State Warriors: Jackson isn’t a guy we’re going to be drafting, but somebody probably should. We hate taking volume shooters who have a poor FG% (42.1% for his career), especially when they turn the ball over almost 3 times a game. Inexplicably, he’s been named a captain this year so maybe he’ll start to play like one. His 17 points along with around 4 assists, 1 steal and 1.5 three-pointers could help some teams out there. Just not ours.

19. Anthony Parker, Toronto Raptors: The New Jersey Nets’ first-round pick all the way back in 1997, Parker never really established himself in the NBA and headed to Europe after the 1999/00 season. After turning himself into a Euro League standout, the 6′6″ Parker returned last year and was a pleasant surprise with the Raptors, both on the court and as a fantasy contributor. With the departure of Morris Peterson he looks to have the starting job locked down and while he won’t necessarily win you any categories, he chips in modest contributions to just about every one.

20. Raja Bell, Phoenix Suns: This feisty pain-in-the-ass is a solid scorer whose main fantasy asset are three-pointers (2.5/per over the last two seasons) and low turnovers (1.1). One might argue they’re his only assets, as he surprisingly doesn’t do much for your team in the way of steals, boards, or feeds and registers just so-so percentages. Still, he led the NBA in them last season and there’s some value in owning a guy who can make such a tremendous impact in one category and not hurt you much elsewhere.

21. Delonte West, Seattle Supersonics
22. Charlie Bell, Milwaukee Bucks
23. Cuttino Mobley, Los Angeles Clippers
24. Jamal Crawford, New York Knicks
25. Ronnie Brewer, Utah Jazz
26. Rodney Stuckey, Detroit Pistons
27. Larry Hughes, Cleveland Cavaliers
28. Mike Dunleavy, Indiana Pacers
29. JR Smith, Denver Nuggets
30. Quentin Richardson, New York Knicks

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