Empty the Bench

1. LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers: LeBron is a top-five pick in most leagues, but he comes with some warts other fantasy stars do not. His free throw percentage has gone down in each of his first four seasons (73.3% career on 8.3 attempts, 69.8% on 9.0 attempts in 2006-07); given the volume of attempts, that’s pretty killer in roto leagues. His TOs have also been consistently high (3.3 over his career, 3.2 last season). Despite that, because of his age and talent there’s obvious cause to expect improvement across the board. The rest of his game is rock solid–his 27+ points, 6+ assists, 7 rebounds, 1.5+ steals, 1.3+ three-pointers and 47+% FGs (on over 20 attempts a game) are hard to find anywhere else. In a head-to-head league where you’re booting FT% and TOs, he’s amazing. Pair him with Dwight Howard in such a setup and dominate.

2. Josh Smith, Atlanta Hawks: 21-year-old J-Smoove is the type of player who can go out and win you blocks on any given week. He’s made huge progress in each of his three seasons in the NBA, and this could be a breakout campaign. He’s gone from 2.0 to 2.6 to 2.9 blocks a game, so expecting around 3/per seems reasonable. He’s also going to post over 1 steal a game, notch around 9 rebounds, score 18 points and drop 3+ dimes. Unfortunately, the FG% (43.9% last season on 13.8 attempts), FT% (69.3% on 5.4 attempts) and TOs (3.2 per) are pretty killer. Still, he’s a superstar waiting to happen and there may not be another player in fantasy basketball with more upside. Take Smith late in the second round or anywhere in the third and enjoy.

3. Rashard Lewis, Orlando Magic: The third preps-to-pros member of this list, Rashard Lewis was already a fantasy stud last year and he’s poised to break out as the primary outside threat for the Magic. Removing Ray Allen’s touches and shots should do wonders for Lewis, and paired with the inside presence of Dwight Howard he could be an offensive monster. Given the talent and situation, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect 3 three-pointers, 24 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists, over 1 steal and around 1 block on 46% FGs, 84% FTs and 2.3 TOs a game. That kind of balance is incredibly valuable in roto formats and head-to-head leagues alike.

4. Andre Iguodala, Philadelphia 76ers: Iguodala has the natural talent to be a superstar, but he lacks some of the offensive polish of other players here. It should come in time, but after Iverson was shipped out last year his FG% took a nosedive. He’s not as adept at creating his own shot outside, but he can take it to the rack and plays tremendous defense. We’re looking at a guy who could average 20+ points, 6 rebounds, 6 assists and 2 steals. He’ll be putting his best foot forward, too, in his first full season as the face of the franchise.

5. Carmelo Anthony, Denver Nuggets: Melo has taken some big strides in his FG% over the last two years, going from a guy who was around 43% for his first two years to a 48% guy the last two, and it makes a huge difference for this volume shooter (22.4 attempts in 2006-07). He’ not going to wow you with the peripherals, but the 29 points a game are certainly valuable for the right team and his 1.2 steals, 6.0 rebounds and 3.8 assists are very nice.

6. Gerald Wallace, Charlotte Bobcats: You can make an argument for Wallace in the second round of your draft, but the injury history gives us pause. And though he’s never given us any indication of being this kind of player, we’re sometimes skeptical about guys entering the first season of a just-inked, long-term deal. Wallace shot a surprisingly high FG PCT last season (50%) for a mediocre shooter putting up about 13/per, but that’s tempered by an equally low FT PCT (64.2% career). What puts him this high on our list are the outstanding complimentary stats: 7.2 boards, 2.6 assists, 2 steals, and 1 block per in 2006/07.

7. Caron Butler, Washington Wizards: Butler had his best season as a pro with Washington last year, and he’s an elite source of FT% and steals for your fantasy squad. He’s shot over 86% from the stripe for three consecutive seasons, attempted 5.2 FTs last season and his FG% has risen steadily over the years (46.3% last season). We love the efficiency, and he’s one of those rare players with no discernible downside. Despite making the All-Star team last year, he still doesn’t get as much respect as he should, which probably has a lot to do with playing deep within Gilbert Arenas’ omnipresent mouth shadow. In his five NBA seasons, Butler has never played in all 82 games though.

8. Paul Pierce, Boston Celtics: Pierce is typically higher in SF rankings, but it remains to be seen how the new additions will impact his fantasy line. There should be plenty of playing time, but Pierce will likely transition to more of a distributor and dominate the rock less than he has in the past. It could be good for his FG% and assists, but the points will take a hit. Who will be the go-to outside scorer in clutch situations for the Celts: Pierce or Allen? Both excel at hitting big shots, and while that’s a good thing for the team, again, it’ll affect the fantasy output of both.

9. Luol Deng, Chicago Bulls: Deng is an emerging star in this league, and his real game translates nicely to fantasy hoops. He came on very strong as last season wore on, and we can safely say he’s the only ETB favorite on this Bulls team (a very important note for your fantasy draft, without question). Coming into the 2006/07 season, Deng decided he would work on his midrange game and forget about shooting three-pointers; he took that goal very seriously and only had seven attempts all season. Add in that he’s always stayed under 2 TOs a game and you see a very efficient player. The restraint is remarkable for someone playing over 35 minutes/per in all 82 games. Deng is a great upside pick and someone you should target: over his first three seasons, the former Duke standout has seen his FG %, FT %, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks increase every season.

10. Kevin Durant, Seattle Supersonics: There will be some growing pains for Durant this season, and he’s going to need to bulk up some in order to take it to the rack consistently with power, but he has a chance to give fantasy teams an across-the-board boost once he gets acclimated. Expect a low FG%, but also expect 16-18 points and more then 1 steal and three-pointer a game, along with more than a few monster games that’ll have Blazers fans reaching for the Advil.

11. Josh Howard, Dallas Mavericks: Howard is one of the NBA’s best hustle players and really came on strong last season when he averaged a career-high 18.9 points to go with 46% shooting, 1.3 three-pointers, 6.8 boards, 1.8 feeds, 1.2 steals, and just under 1 block. He’s a roto stud. He’ll start at small forward but also log minutes at shooting guard, where he can absolutely dominate his counterparts in the post. Like Butler, he’s never played a full season, missing 12 games last year.

12. Ron Artest, Sacramaneto Kings: When his game is on, Artest can dominate a fantasy matchup with points, rebounds and massive steal totals. Unfortunately, he’s a lunatic. You never know when he’s going to poop in someone’s closet, steal a courtside fan’s Super Nachos or beat on a random passerby. We prefer not to take the gamble, but if he’s sliding in your draft the potential production is hard to pass up.

13. Corey Maggette, Los Angeles Clippers: Maggette is one of ETB’s favorite “sleepers” heading into the draft season. With Elton Brand gone for the season we think Mike Dunleavy will run much of the offense through Maggette on the wing, and man alive can this guy fill it up. When he’s getting the ball in a position to succeed, Corey is one of the best FT% guys in fantasy basketball because of the sheer volume (shooting 8.4 of ‘em/per in 06/07 at a 82% clip, and that was a down year). The guy is a runaway freight train in space that forces opponents to foul him. More steals and assists would be swell though.

14. Tayshaun Prince, Detroit Pistons: Those draft-day doubts back in 2002 about his propensity to hold up to the pounding of the NBA which caused him to fall all the way to 23rd overall have proven foolhardy. Prince is one of the most durable SFs in the league, not missing a single contest in the four years he’s been a full-time starter. At 27, Tay is still young, still improving, and should be asked to do more this season. He’s always good for your overall stat line and especially excels in roto formats. With those long arms, we have a feeling this could be the year he gets over the steals hump and averages 1+ a game.

15. Rudy Gay, Memphis Grizzlies: After a typical up-and-down season for a rookie trying to find his niche at the professional level, we expect the ultra-versatile 6′9″ Gay to settle in nicely this year and improve in nearly every category. Don’t feel like you’re reaching for him here: he was fractional percentage points away from averaging 1 three-pointer, 1 steal, 1 block, and 1 assist per, and expect his so-so FG and FT percentages to increase. He’s a freak talent, and it’s going to start showing on the court more and more.

16. Peja Stojakovic, New Orleans Hornets: Predrag is going to be forgotten in a lot of fantasy drafts, but he’s worth taking a gamble on. When healthy this is a guy who’s been good for about 2.5 three-pointers, 19 points, 90% FTs, a strong FG%, averaged boards, minuscule TOs and sports the absolute best Executive Contour in all of sports. Peja was a consensus second-round pick just two seasons ago, and while there are significant health concerns he’s a great buy-low guy in the middle-to-late rounds.

17. Richard Jefferson, New Jersey Nets: If RJ comes back fully healed from the ankle surgery that limited him to just 55 games last season, he’ll likely end 07/08 a little higher on this list. Not much in the way of steals, blocks or boards, but he’s a great source of points, shoots a solid free-throw percentage and will chip in about 1 three-pointer/per. By the way, if Peanut experiences any kind of semi-serious setback be all over his backup Boki Nachbar.

18. Kyle Korver, Philadelphia 76ers: You need three-pointers? Korver’s got three-pointers. You need anything else? Look elsewhere… unless it’s an awful haircut. He’s got one of those, too.

19. Jeff Green, Seattle Supersonics: Now that Durant has been named the starting SG, we’re looking for rookie Jeff Green to log heavy minutes at the SF position for Seattle in what figures to be a complete rebuilding year. That may not bode well for the team’s record, but Green will have every opportunity to put up respectable fantasy stats. With an NBA-ready body, great athleticism and a fairly polished offensive game he could surprise some people. He’s one of many rookies we’re psyched to see in action.

20. Shane Battier, Houston Rockets: Battier has relinquished the crown as the NBA’s reisdent Jack of All Trades, Master of None, but he can still go out there and give you 1 steal, 1 block, 1 three-pointer and decent rebounding totals on solid percentages, which is all you can ask for from your fantasy role-players. Not an exciting choice on draft day, but one who’ll likely give you more consistency than the trendier picks.

21. Josh Childress, Atlanta Hawks
22. Andres Nocioni, Chicago Bulls
23. Ryan Gomes, Minnesota Timberwolves
24. Morris Peterson, New Orleans Hornets
25. Travis Outlaw, Portland Trailblazers
26. Grant Hill, Phonix Suns
27. Trevor Ariza, Orlando Magic
28. Luke Walton, Los Angeles Lakers
29. Tim Thomas, Los Angeles Clippers
30A. Hakim Warrick, Memphis Grizzlies
30B. Walter Herrmann, Charlotte Bobcats

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