Empty the Bench

Fantasy football and the stock market are like two heads on the same beast. To master both, it’s crucial to have your finger on the pulse of the market and to try to buy low and to sell high with your assets. You never want to pay more than market value for your players or stocks, and getting in early on an emerging talent can make your portfolio blossom… or in this case, your fantasy roster win a title. With that theme in mind, ETB wades through all the action that was Week 5 in the NFL and prepares you for Week 6 of the fantasy football season with reports on players who saw their value rise and fall.

Big Gainers:

Jason Campbell, QB, Washington Redskins: He still hasn’t been a full-time starter for an entire season, but the ‘Skins 2005 first-round pick is rapidly developing into the kind of quarterback that can win games when he’s asked to, and rarely lose them. That’s not exactly a thrilling endorsement of his fantasy prospects, but it’s an all-too-uncommon quality amongst many starting QBs in the league. With his top target Santana Moss on the sidelines, Campbell was a model of efficiency and smart decision-making against the Lions on Sunday, spreading the ball around to eight different receivers and finishing 23-29 for 248 yards, 2 TDs, and no turnovers. That made him the third-highest fantasy scorer at his position behind just Philip Rivers and Tom Brady. Campbell will be tested in Lambeau next week for a big NFC clash with Brett Favre and the Packers.

Brandon Jacobs, RB, New York Giants : Brandon Jacobs gave up a fumble for a TD in one series and gingerly walked to the sidelines in another during the first half. I waited with baited breath, but Tom Coughlin stuck with him and it paid off in a big way. That Jacobs is a physical specimen was never in doubt, but his ability to tote the rock 20 times a game has been. While nearly doubling his previous high for carries (11) with 20, Jacobs acquitted himself nicely. He looked strong, dificult to tackle, and quick through the holes and around the ends. If it hadn’t been for an incidental holding call he would have had 127 yards and 2 TDs, but owners are still content to see him get the bulk of the carries, top the century mark, and find the endzone. If he stays healthy 8-10 TDs from here on out is a very reasonable estimate.

Najeh Davenport, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers: I always thought Davenport would wind up as the featured back in Green Bay after Ahman Green left, but the guy never seemed to get his head screwed on straight. With his combination of raw power and decent speed he’s akin to a poor man’s Brandon Jacobs and could be well-suited to take over some goal-line duties. I don’t think that’s going to happen too often just yet, but in proving himself competent in limted work (7.5 YPC on the season) he’s likely earned himself a larger role in the Pittsburgh offense spelling Fast Willie Parker. When pitted against softer defenses, he’s a reasonable bye-week flex play and a borderline RB2 if Parker gets injured.

Benjamin Watson, TE, New England Patriots: There are, apparently, enough passes to go around in New England after all. After the team loaded up on new toys during the summer for Tom Brady to play with, some feared the offense would be spread out so evenly that the whole gang would have only so-so fantasy value. By now we all know those fears were unwarranted and that damn near every skill player is worth a look. Benjamin Watson, a guy who figured to get lost in shuffle some at TE, has absolutely exploded in his fourth year. After yesterday’s career day (6 catches, 107 yards, 2 TDs), he now has 17 receptions, 194 yards, and 5 TDs on the season, and is third amongst TEs in fantasy points earned.

Kurt Warner, QB, Arizona Cardinals: Reports are out today that Matt Leinart will miss the remainder of the season with a fractured collarbone. Old Man Warner is a must add in every format in what figures to be his last gasp as a viable fantasy starter. Since he began seeing action in Week 3, the 56-year-old Warner has been good, if not great, with a QB rating of 102.3, 580 yards passing, 4 TDs, and just 1 pick. After their Week 8 bye, the Cards’ schedule considerably weakens and Anquan Boldin will hopefully be healthy and back on the field (sore hip). This is also good news for both Arizona receivers.

Andre’ Davis, WR, Houston Texans: Davis kept it going this week with 4 receptions for 79 yards, marking the third-straight contest he’s recorded that number of catches. He’s never going to be a possession receiver, but if he can stay on this pace his big-play ability will give him fantasy value as a WR4. As we mentioned last week, he’s one of eight players in NFL history to score on 99-yard touchdown receptions, and so far this season he has catches of 49+ yards in every game he’s been active in. He may have earned the WR2 job in Houston by the time Andre Johnson returns.

Greg Jennings, WR, Green Bay Packers: Jennings’ speed is back, his injury appears to be behind him (for now), and he’s producing in one of the most pass-heavy offenses in football. He simply outran the Chicago secondary for that 41-yard TD on Monday night. As long as Favre is behind center and the Packers keep electing to throw 80% of the time, Jennings is a solid weekly WR3 play. His status also goes up after rookie James Jones fumbled it away twice on Sunday, clearly drawing the coaching staff’s ire.

Earnest Graham, RB, Tampa Bay Bucs: It remains to be seen if the Bucs will make a move for another back (Chester Taylor, Mewelde Moore, Michael Turner?), but for the time being Graham has lucked into the starting job in Tampa Bay. With Carnell Williams already out for the year, Michael Pittman broke his fibula on Sunday and will miss at least four weeks, probably more. That leaves Graham all alone and in line for major carries in the foreseeable future. With a strong defense and a surprisingly competent offense (if mediocre), that should make him a decent RB3 play for at least the next month. Make sure to start him against the Lions in Week 7.

Big Losers:

Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints: We want to like Brees–we really do–and really want to think he’s going to snap out of this wretched funk and return to the MVP candidate form he played with last season. But as the season wears on and the Saints continue shooting themselves in the foot on offense with dropped passes, interceptions, poor play from the offensive line, and a mediocre rushing attack, the more we’re starting to worry that all the secrets of his ‘06 magic act have been revealed. Brees has thrown one–one–TD pass so far, carries a 57.4 QB Rating, and has tossed an astonishing 9 INTs. All of this from a likely third-round pick. Yuck.

Chris Chambers, WR, Miami Dolphins: Chambers could still retain some value, but it hurts going from the accurate veteran Trent Green, with whom he’d established a nice repor, to the wild, unproven youngster with the thin mustache, Cleo Lemon. You have to think opposing defenses are going to bring even more pressure now, and the Miami offensive line has done a terrible job in pass protection all season.

Larry Johnson, RB, St. Louis Rams: The Curse of 370 (or, in this case, 416) rears its ugly head again. Johnson has looked worn down all year after his record-setting, 416-carry season and the Kansas City offensive line looks depleted. Things are likely to get better, but I don’t think LJ is more than a RB2 at this point, and he’s a guy you can definitely bench in certain circumstances. Granted, the Jacksonville rush defense is fearsome with Stroud and Henderson in the middle, but 15 total yards on 14 touches is insanely bad. For the record, Andrew has been saying all year that he wouldn’t have even considered drafting Johnson until midway through the second round.

Matt Leinart, QB, Arizona Cardinals: See Kurt Warner, above. When a second-year quarterback on shaky ground and already in an unheard of QB-by-committee situation goes down with a fractured collarbone, his stock can’t get much lower. Drop him as soon as you’re done reading this article in its entirety (Don’t you dare stop reading now… yes, I’m talking to you).

Thomas Jones, RB, New York Jets: The Jets offense has been exactly what we thought it would be before the season began: craptacular. It’s hard to say who should be replaced first, though: Chad Pennington, who looks like he’s throwing a Nerf ball that’s been chewed up by a dog, or Jones, who sets the Jets’ offense up for disaster with his poopy 3.3 YPC and hasn’t scored a touchdown since Benjamin Harrison was in the oval office. Bring out the toilet paper–it’s time to wipe this stain clean before it stinks up the city even more.

Jon Kitna, QB, Detroit Lions: MLive.com’s Tom Kowalski calls it a “developing case of the dropsies,” but we just call it “holding onto the f&*king ball for way too f-#@ing long and then turning over the f$!*ing ball on top of it.” Kitna is still third in the NFL in passing yards, tied for fifth in TD passes, and always a 350/3 threat, but he’s also getting sacked at a near-record pace and is averaging almost two turnovers through five games. With every hit it becomes less and less likely that he finishes the season free of injury.

Frank Gore, RB, San Francisco 49ers: We advise Gore owners not to hit the red panic button just yet, despite the fact that he’s yet to exceed 81 rushing yards in a game and hasn’t scored since Week 3. With the stingy Steelers and Ravens rushing defenses out of the way, beams of light can be seen in the tunnel with the Saints, Giants, Falcons, Seahawks, Rams, and Bengals coming up soon. Still, until Alex Smith is behind center again and Trent Dilfer reassumes his spot at the buffet, opposing defenses are going to put eight men in the box and make things difficult for our favorite running back ever from Coral Gables, FL.

Trent Green, QB, Miami Dolphins: MRI results are not in so we don’t have anything conclusive, but he may be dead. We’re not sure yet, but it doesn’t look good.

Sell High:

Laveranues Coles, WR, New York Jets: Coles is coming off back-to-back 8-reception games, and now might be the time to pull the trigger. Jerricho Cotchery is emerging to steal looks, the schedule gets more difficult and Chad Pennington doesn’t look like he can throw anything but rainbows. Better defenses are going to key in on him and shut down the passing game.

Tony Gonzalez, TE, Kansas City Chiefs: Damon Huard suffered an undisclosed shoulder injury that will already keep him out in Week 6 before the MRI results are even in. It could be a lot longer. That means the promising-yet-erratic Brodie Croyle will become the starter, but he really hasn’t shown a thing as a pro and Gonzo will likely have to spend more time in pass protection. You might want to wait until Saturday though, so you get Sunday’s 65 yards and a TD against the Bengals.

**UPDATE** Huard has been confirmed as KC’s starter for Week 6. Woo.

Stevonne Smith, WR, Carolina Panthers: You hate to trade away a playmaker like Smith, it’s physically painful to do, but at this point I’m looking for suitors who are willing to buy him at value. If I can get a second- or third-round value, I’m selling. Delhomme is out for the year, David Carr sucks and could be injured and Matt Moore is an undrafted 23-year-old.

Buy Low:

Jerious Norwood, RB, Atlanta Falcons: HC Bobby Petrino can’t stay stubborn in this situation forever, can he? Warrick Dunn has pretty much sucked all year, but he’s still getting more touches and carries than Norwood, seemingly just because he’s a veteran. At some point Norwood is going to claim the RB1 job here; make a move for him before then.

Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Seattle Seahawks: This guy is an overrated fantasy commodity (and he’s playing like one), but check out the ‘Hawks next seven opponents: Saints, Rams, Browns, 49ers, Bears, Rams, Eagles… all teams that can be exploited through the air. Value lessens, though, if Deion Branch (sprained foot) misses extended time.

Nate Burleson, WR, Seattle Seahawks: See Matt Hasselbeck. If Branch is out–and we think he’ll miss the team’s next two games–Burleson will see an uptick in production. Right now, he’s probably an afterthought on someone’s team.

Andre Johnson, WR, Houston Texans: After suffering a loss with a star on the sidelines fantasy owners tent to get antsy. Johnson’s owner in your league may be wondering if he can wait it out, and you may be able to snatch up a premier receiver on the cheap.

More Week Six Fantasy Football Goodness:

ETB’s Week Six Matchups

ETB’s Week Six Position Rankings

ETB’s Week Six Quick Hits

Week Six Cheat Sheet