Empty the Bench

The bye weeks are here, which means figuring out who to bench, who to start, and who to add for a spot start a crucial task. To aid your good cause, every week during the 2007 NFL season we’ll take a look at a few key fantasy matchups at all the positions that matter (sorry, kickers suck). For each fantasy position we’ll give you our Five Strong Plays, a few players to Temper Your Expectations for, one Sneaky Play of the Week, and one Dud of the Week.

These are not always the players we think will score the most points or score the least points: there will almost always be obvious situations and choices we ignore. These also aren’t all sneaky plays. They’re just the matchups that we feel deserve mention*.

We’ll go back and update the actual performance for each player, so please be sure to check back next Monday to see how we did. That way you can either marvel at ETB’s competence (likely) or point and laugh and call us schmucks (very unlikely).

Good luck, and may the force be with you.

Five Strong Quarterback Plays

Tom Brady, New England Patriots vs. CLE: Okay, who’s the smartass in the NFL scheduling office responsible for this one? It doesn’t matter that the Browns are 2-2, or that HC Romeo Crennel, Master of the Stretch Pants, used to be a key member of the Patriots coaching staff. Tom Brady and the Pats are going to toy with the hapless Browns secondary like a cat with a maimed mouse. Before Brady hands off to backup Matt Cassell in the fourth quarter, he should have at least two more TD passes on his ‘07 resume… and both of them just might be thrown to one Randy Moss.

Actual: 22-38, 265 yards, 3 TDs

Vince Young, Tennessee Titans vs. ATL: The comparisons to Michael “PETA” Vick are unfair to the reigning NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year; Young is already a better passer, more savvy runner, and better field general than Vick ever was or ever will be. With two full weeks to study the Falcons’ above-average pass defense, Young should be well prepared to exploit their weaknesses. If he struggles getting it done through the air, he’ll kill them with his legs. We’ll go out on a limb and predict close to 100 yards rushing and 3 total TDs for Vince.

Actual: 20-33, 157 yards, 3 INTs, 27 yards rushing

Eli Manning, New York Giants vs. NYJ: Manning’s decision-making and accuracy are coming along nicely, and if he can make good on both counts against the Jets he should have one of his better games of the season. New York’s green-headed stepchild is giving up 258.5 yards passing and 1.75 TDs per thus far, and getting less than 1 pick. Plaxico Burress is battling a nagging ankle injury, but if he suits up it’s obviously that much more of a bonus.

Actual: 13-25, 186 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT

Brett Favre, Green Bay Packers vs. CHI: The Bears’ secondary is in absolute ruins–last week they trotted out seventh-round pick Trumaine McBride to start at CB–and it doesn’t look like they’re going to “freshen up,” as former NFL coach Steve Mariucci was fond of saying, anytime soon. The Packers have proven over the last two weeks they aren’t afraid to brazenly give up on the run and dare their opponents to stop the pass. In fact, they’ve rushed the ball a total of 24 times during that two-week stretch. These two teams are going in opposite directions, and we expect Brett Favre to hang a few on the Bears at home.

Actual: 29-40, 322 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs

Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys @ BUF: One or two more weeks at his current pace and we may have to think about giving Romo bonafide “stud” status and adding him to our disclaimer at the bottom. You could probably make the case that he deserves to be there now as the top fantasy producer at his position and after that huge game against the Rams. The Bills’ secondary just might be worse than the Rams–you do the math.

Temper Your Expectations

Jon Kitna, Detroit Lions @ WAS: With the way he’s rolling you’d have to be out of your mind to bench Kitna right now, but the Redskins should put up more of a fight at home than the Bears did last week on the road. The ‘Skins secondary is holding their opponents to just 230.3 yards and less than 1 passing TD, and should be fresh after their Week 4 bye. The inopportune turnovers–and holding onto the ball too long in the pocket–are all that’s holding Kitna back, but he’ll be tested this week.

Actual: 16-29, 106 yards, 2 INTs

Joey Harrington, Atlanta Falcons @ TEN: Coming off two strong games a lot of people wll turn to Joey Harrinton as a bye-week relacement. That could be a mistake, as the Titans’ bend-but-don’t-break passing defense has only given up 2 passing scores and generated 5 INTs despite allowing 238.3 yards a game. He probably won’t embarass himself, but this isn’t a particularly strong matchup on the road for Joey.

Actual: 16-31, 87 yards, 1 INT, benched in favor of Byron Leftwich

Sneaky Play of the Week

Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals @ STL: Matt Leinart is losing more and more snaps to Warner, and it’s obvious to the three or four people glued to the television for Cardinals games that Warner is the more effective quarterback right now. The Cards will face off against a pitiful Rams secondary that has only 1 INT on the season and has given up 6 TDs. Last week they shut down Terrell Owens, but were badly burned by Patrick Crayton, the team’s WR2. If Anquan Boldin is back on the field, either he or Larry Fitzgerald should go off, and Warner will likely be the one feeding them the ball.

Actual: 14-28, 190 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

Dud of the Week

Derek Anderson, Cleveland Browns @ NE: After weeks of dogging him and ridiculing him and saying it’s only a matter of time before he cracks, Derek Anderson keeps making us look a little foolish by posting very solid numbers. He’s clicking with Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow, Jr. and keeping his turnovers low, and for that, we pat him on the back. But if you’ve been riding his lucky streak, stop now before the well runs dry in Foxboro against the loaded Patriots.

Actual: 22-43, 287 yards, 2 TDs, 3 INTs

Five Strong Running Back Plays

DeShaun Foster, Carolina Panthers @ NO: The Saints are giving up 106.3 rushing yards, 3.66 catches and 1.33 TDs to opposing running backs, and it appears that HC John Fox has decided to make Foster the featured back over DeAngelo Williams for now. Both teams are desperate for a win, and with David Carr looking like, well, David Carr at the QB spot, look for Foster to get 22+ carries.

Actual: 19 carries for 59 yards

Derrick Ward/Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants @ NYJ: We believe that Brandon Jacobs should technically resume starting duties this week, but in any event both backs make a strong RB3 play against a defense giving up over a 100 yards and a TD on the ground and 3.25 receptions, 36 yards and .5 TDs through the air to opposing RBs. Ward has managed over 100 combined yards per game on the year, but Jacobs should be the goal-line guy right away and will be motivated to prove he’s the guy, period, once he gets on the field.

Actual: Ward (13 carries for 56 yards, 3 catches for 8 yards, 1 TD) Jacobs (20 carries for 100 yards, 1 TD, 1 Fumble Lost)

Willis McGahee, Baltimore Ravens @ SF: McGahee posted one of his stronger YPC efforts last week against the Browns (7.4), but failed to find the endzone. This guy is one of the most frustrating featured backs in the NFL because he never seems to put it all together in a single game. Namely, he finally goes over 100 yards on the ground, but again fails to score (he’s only crossed the goal line once so far, on a pass reception). With Manny Lawson out, this could be the week he finally rushes for one.

Actual: 22 carries for 88 yards, 7 catches for 48 yards

Ron Dayne, Houston Texans vs. MIA: The Texans are hoping Ahman Green can come back this week, but we don’t see that happening and honestly don’t see the point in rushing him back with Dayne being perfectly serviceable in this matchup. The Miami defense has emerged in the early going as one to heavily exploit–it’s almost hard to believe, but they’re allowing 200 yards on the ground to their opponents so far. Guys named Fargas are putting up 179 on them. As long as he’s not splitting carries with Green, Dayne should go for at least 100 and a TD.

Actual: 16 carries for 40 yards, 1 catch for 5 yards, 1 TD

Laurence Maroney, New England Patriots vs. CLE: Assuming Bill Belichick is kind enough to suit up his horse and give him at least somewhat of a full load after resting him with a “groin injury” against the Bengals, Maroney should go off early and often. The Browns are yielding a whopping 160 rushing yards a game–good for third worst in the NFL–and are just as much of a swinging door against the pass. The Pats will get up big early, which should mean a lot of rushing attempts for Maroney in the second half. Of course, this is Belichick we’re talking about, so maybe it’ll be Heath Evans finishing with 20+ carries.

Actual: Belichick listed Maroney as inactive 30 minutes before kickoff

Temper Your Expectations

Reggie Bush, New Orleans Saints vs. CAR: You have to roll with him, but unless the Saints realize he’s best utilized on short swing passes and working in open space, Bush could continue to struggle putting up significant yards. His 2.8 YPC is simply unacceptable, and he’s still only cracked 100 yards on the ground once in his career. We have to assume the Saints offense worked out some of their kinks during the bye week, but then again, they’ve looked horrible thus far, perhaps too horrible to fix in just seven days.

Actual: 21 carries for 67 yards, 9 catches for 52 yards

Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers vs. BAL: Another guy you probably can’t afford to bench, but this will not be one of Gore’s stronger performances. For all the trouble Baltimore is having against the pass, they’re still a strong rushing defense and with a bloated Trent Dilfer under center the Ravens will stack the box, shut Gore down, and take their chances against the 49ers’ “passing attack,” which will again be without Vernon Davis.

Actual: 16 carries for 52 yards, 3 catches for 23 yards

Sneaky Play of the Week

Ladell Betts, Washington Redskins vs. DET: We assume that with Clinton Portis’ knee tendonitis flaring up Ladell Betts will see an increased role, if not get a bulk of the carries. Although the Detroit secondary is extremely soft, look for the Redskins to focus on the rushing attack at home and with still-inexperienced Jason Campbell under center. The Lions give up 114.3 yards a game and have surrendered 6 rushing TDs, so while Betts isn’t off to a great start in ‘07 (30 carries, 82 yards, 2.7 YPC, 0 TDs), this is good matchup for him to break out.

Actual: 8 carries for 22 yards, 2 catches for 8 yards

Dud of the Week

Cedric Benson, Chicago Bears @ GB: Lovie Smith already made the right choice in swapping QBs–how much longer will it be until he starts giving the nimble Adrian Peterson more touches? It could happen this week against an extremely underrated Packers defense that hasn’t allowed a rushing score all season. We think Benson will again fail to rise to the challenge, and if/when the Bears lose this game and fall to 1-4, it could be his head on the chopping block next. Benson owners, you better be all over Peterson.

Actual: 27 carries for 64 yards (2.4 YPC), 1 TD

Five Strong Wide Receiver Plays

Terrell Owens, Dallas Cowboys @ BUF: Owens put up a stinker this week in a cakewalk matchup, and Tony Romo’s man love for Patrick Crayton was in full force. Crayton continues to be a strong option, but Romo knows you don’t go two weeks in a row without feeding the tempermental Owens major looks, especially inside the red zone. Watching the bums Buffalo trots out there against the purebred TO should be laughable on Monday Night Football… certainly more entertaining than ESPN’s schlubs calling the game.

Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals @ STL: With Anquan Boldin hobbled and perhaps even missing another game due to a sore hip (it sounds rather feminine, but hey, hips can hurt too), Fitzy will get it done again versus one of the worst top-to-bottom defenses in football. After basically three consecutive no-shows to kick off the season, he had 11 receptions last week, and as crazy as it sounds another double-digit performance could be in the offing.

Actual: 9 catches for 136 yards, 1 TD

Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. SEA: We were anxious to see how the fleet second-year wideout would perform as the Steelers’ WR1 last week with Hines Ward out, and man alive did he respond. He had 6 catches, 128 yards, and 2 TDs against the Cards, who are about even with the Seahawks in defending the pass. We don’t think Ward will sit another out, but he won’t be at 100% and Roethlisberger knows he can lean on Holmes.

Actual: Late Scratch with Injury

Brandon Marshall, Denver Broncos vs. SD: Forgive us if we’re starting to sound like a broken record here, but this kid is a gamer and one of our favorite emerging talents in the NFL. With Javon Walker nursing an injured knee, Marshall failed to put up much yardage against the Colts with only 3 receptions for 23, but he did find the endzone, as we predicted. Don’t put too much stock in his underwhelming effort, as Jay Cutler didn’t do much. The Chargers allowed rookie Dwayne Bowe, below, to go off for 164 yards and a score.

Actual: 7 catches for 72 yards, 1 Fumble Lost

Lee Evans, Buffalo Bills vs. DAL: That’s right, the same Lee Evans who has 11 receptions, 101 yards, and a big 0-fer in the TD column. We’re predicting The Great Unpredictable finally records one of his trademark explosions against a beatable Cowboys secondary. Rookie QB Trent Edwards acquitted himself nicely last week against the weak Jets D, and could be throwing for much of the second half. Evans: 7 catches, 135 yards, 2 TDs.

Temper Your Expectations

Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs vs. JAX: Is it too much to expect this studly rookie WR put together a second big game in a row? Yes, it probably is. The Jags are holding opponents to just 150 yards passing and are coming off a bye. Bowe is the top downfield target for Damon Huard and won’t be totally shut down, but we’d be surprised if he logs over 85 yards receiving.

Actual: 4 catches for 70 yards

Vincent Jackson, San Diego @ DEN: He’s making significant strides, but we’re still waiting for the 6-5 wideout to top 100 yards receiving in one game; he’s yet to achieve that during his three-year career. We’ll be waiting at least another week as Champ Bailey and the NFL’s best pass defense locks him down and keeps his yardage low. The only upside here is a possible score, but that’s a real gamble.

Actual: 3 catches, 84 yards, 1 TD

Sneaky Play of the Week

Anthony Gonzalez, Indianapolis Colts vs. TB: This week’s Sneaky Play is only for those with a severe case of the Bye Week Blues. Many had the rookie from Ohio State pegged as a potential fantasy sleeper as the Colts’ starting flanker, but thus far he hasn’t done much, catching just 6 passes for 107 yards. If there was ever a time for him to step up and prove to Peyton Manning that he’s ready, it’s now with Marvin Harrison out.

Actual: 7 catches for 71 yards

Dud of the Week

Braylon Edwards, Cleveland Browns @ NE: We love his talent and are admittedly bowled over by his elite fantasy production through his first four games (18 catches, 375 yards, 4 TDs). He’s finding a way to get it done despite a few unfavorable matchups, and that’s why we can’t consciously recommend benching him against the Pats. But they held Chad Johnson in check and out of the endzone last week, and won’t have a T.J. Houshmandzadeh to worry about on the Browns. Be thrilled if he scores. Be absolutely thrilled.

Actual: 6 catches for 110 yards

Five Strong Tight End Plays

Chris Cooley, Washington Redskins vs. DET: With Santana Moss either sidelined or limited, Cooley instantly becomes Jason Campbell’s most reliable target–Antwaan Randle El is the only WR other than Moss that’s caught a pass so far. Lions OLB Boss Bailey is decent in TE coverage, but Detroit hasn’t been tasked with containing a talented TE yet this year. Expect no less than 6 catches, 60 yards, and a TD.

Actual: 4 catches, 26 yards, 1 TD

Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. SEA: Miller has been quietly productive for the Steelers in his third NFL season, totaling 13 receptions for 197 yards and 1 TD. Big Ben Roethlisberger has a penchant for seeking him out in the redzone, and we like his chances against a Seattle defense that hasn’t really faced a real TE threat.

Actual: 4 catches, 44 yards, 1 TD

Dallas Clark, Indianapolis Colts vs. TB: Like Cooley, Dallas Clark will benefit from one of his QB’s top wideout threats–in this case Marvin Harrison–being sidelined. But then it’s not like Harrison being in or out of the lineup has affected Clark’s production. He’s now scored three weeks in a row and is well on his way to career highs in receptions and yards.

Actual: 7 catches, 49 yards, 1 TD, 1 Bell-Ringer

Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys @ BUF: Barring injury, Witten is going to the Pro Bowl this year as the NFC’s tight end representative. If you’ve read our Tony Romo and Terrell Owens listings, above, you know why we like the big 6-5 Witten to produce again.

Alge Crumpler, Atlanta Falcons @ TEN: Crump only got 5 looks last week against the Texans en route to hauling in 3 passes for 34 yards, but you can’t give up on him now. Harrington could be under pressure all day from the Titans’ solid front seven, which would mean dump-offs a plenty for Crumpler.

Actual: 2 catches for 4 yards

Temper Your Expectations

Kellen Winslow, Cleveland Browns @ NE: This has a lot to do with the solid Patriots’ defense and the versatile Adalius Thomas’ ability to keep up with athletic tight ends, and also with this week’s made-for-tv movie: The Return of Rodney Harrison: He’s Going to Kill Somebody.

Actual: 4 catches, 49 yards, 1 TD, 1 Fumble Lost

Randy McMichael, St. Louis Rams vs. ARI: As we mentioned in Tuesday’s Week Five Stock Report, all Rams skill players should be severely downgraded on the fantasy radar at this point. We had high hopes for McMichael coming into the season, but he’s not impervious to the misfortune besetting this sad-sack offense.

Actual: 3 catches, 45 yards, 1 TD

Sneaky Play of the Week

Chris Baker, New York Jets @ NYG: The Giants are one of the worst teams in the NFL in containing tight ends, and the unheralded Baker has already scored twice this season and gets his fair share of redzone looks. He’s not going to put up much yardage, but Chad Pennington only seems capable of throwing short TD passes these days. A TD from your starting tight end is all you can ask for, especially if he’s just a bye week plug-in play like Baker.

Actual: 3 catches for 52 yards

Dud of the Week

Desmond Clark, Chicago Bears @ GB: For all the hullabaloo about Brian Griese replacing Rex Grossman, we just don’t think either one is going to make much of a difference (please, no more talk about Griese as a “game manager”). Griese was unimpressive against the Lions in his first start, but Clark did benefit with 7 catches for 44 yards and a touch. On paper he looks strong again this week with the Packers’ D likely containing the Bears’ wideouts, but we don’t see Clark scoring.

Actual: 3 catches for 62 yards, 1 TD

Five Strong Team Defense Plays

Houston Texans vs. MIA: Trent Green isn’t long for the NFL, but it may only be a few more weeks if his offensive line has anything to say about it. While they’re blocking decently for Ronnie Brown, they’re giving Green no time. He simply can’t look downfield and he’s being forced into bad throws. Mario Williams will get to Green, and the sixth-ranked rushing defense has a good chance to keep Ronnie Brown in check.

Actual: 19 points allowed, 1 INT, 1 Sack

Baltimore Ravens @ SF: Well, the Ravens proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that their secondary has fallen on hard times last week. That really shouldn’t be a problem, though, because Trent Dilfer will be under center and looked utterly dreadful last week. He doesn’t even appear to be in playing shape or have a mastery of the playbook. The Baltimore D can still create turnovers and the front seven can still stop the run. It seems like eons ago Dilfer led Baltimore to the Super Bowl, doesn’t it?

Actual: 7 points allowed, 1 INT, 3 Sacks

Green Bay Packers vs. CHI: Brian Griese was supposed to come in last week and show how to conservatively manage a game and minimize turnovers. Then he threw 3 INTs to the Lions and made their secondary look good. Oh, and Cedric Benson sucks. Meanwhile, the Packers have a solid unit that can lock up the Bears’ mediocre receivers, keep the running game off the boardn and DEs who can get to Griese.

Actual: 27 points allowed, 1 INT, 2 Sacks

Dallas Cowboys @ BUF: Despite fielding a suspect secondary that’s prone to giving up big plays, the Cowboys have 9 team INTs, good for first in the NFL along with the Detroit Lions. Even though we think Lee Evans is going to blow up, the Bills and rookie QB Trent Edwards will be suspectible to sacks and turnovers. Once those start piling up, you can live with 20 - 24 points allowed.

Arizona Cardinals @ STL: It would have been an absurd suggestion heading into the season, but until something changes you have to consider the Rams opponents as weekly options. St. Louis is last in the NFL with 9.8 points per game and 29th with 265.5 yards per game. That’s pathetic, and the offensive line is letting pass rushers get to Gus Frerotte with consistency.

Actual: 31 points allowed, 3 INTs, 2 Sacks, 1 TD

Temper Your Expectations

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. SEA: It’s true that the Steelers are giving up fewer than 12 points and 260 total yards a game, but the Seattle attack is more polished than anything they’ve faced. They’re balanced (250 passing yards, 105 rushing yards a game), Shaun Alexander is always capable of a big game, and Matt Hasselbeck is getting things going with Deion Branch.

Actual: 0 points allowed, 1 INT, 3 Sacks

San Diego Chargers @ DEN: A unanimous preseason projection as one of the top four fantasy defenses, the Chargers have been very pedestrian and are in the league’s bottom third in terms of fantasy points scored. Last week they let Larry Johnson record his first 100+ yard rushing game of the season, and watched a rookie WR kill them for 168 yards and a TD. Only four teams have allowed more points, and they’ve recorded just 9 sacks through four games. Don’t expect big things at Mile High Stadium.

Actual: 41 points allowed, 1 Fumble Recovery

Sneaky Play of the Week

New York Giants vs. NYJ: Before last week’s dominance of the Eagles, there’s no way we could have imagined ever recommending the Giants defense as a plug-in play for your starting lineup. All of a sudden, however, their pass rush came alive, sacking McNabb an NFL-record 12 times and making him look like a flailing, wounded duck in the process. Overall they’re making strides, and are now ranked 16th overall in yards allowed per game–not very good, but better than they were. Chad Pennington is even less mobile than McNabb and is always a threat to turn it over, so if you’re trolling the waiver wire for a bye week replacement, the Giants are a decent option in Week 5.

Actual: 24 points allowed, 3 INTs, 1 Sack, 1 TD

Dud of the Week

Seattle Seahawks @ PIT: They’re currently the fourth-ranked defense in fantasy and last week Julian Peterson looked like a demon, but this week they aren’t a strong option. The Seattle D is playing better than I expected them to, though. Still, going into the noisy Heinz Field is never an easy thing for opposing defenses. The new spread offense Pittsburgh is running should give the Seattle secondary all kinds of trouble, and led by Fast Willie Parker the Steelers are averaging an impressive 168 rushing yards a game. We see Pittsburgh putting up 28.

Actual: 21 points allowed, 3 Sacks

See How Our Week 4 Matchups Panned Out

Week 5 Fantasy Position Rankings

Week 5 Stock Report

*Disclaimer: There are some players who are always must starts, and you should know who they are. To make things easy, we’ve picked a few guys at each position who will never be listed in our Top Matchups because it just wouldn’t be fair– they’re studs, simple as that. They are: QB Peyton Manning, QB Carson Palmer, RB LaDainian Tomlinson, RB Brian Westbrook, RB Larry Johnson, WR Chad Johnson, WR Stevonne Smith, WR Randy Moss, TE Antonio Gates, and DEF New England.