Empty the Bench

Fantasy sports and the stock market have a lot in common. To succeed, it’s crucial to have your finger on the pulse of the market, and always try to know when to buy low and to sell high. You never want to pay more than market value for your players or stocks, and getting in on the ground floor of an emerging talent can make your portfolio take off… or in this case, your fantasy roster win games. With that idea in mind, ETB sorts through all the action in Week Four and examines a few of the players who’ve experienced big gains and losses in their value.

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Week 5 Matchups

Week 5 Position Rankings

Big Gainers:

Ronnie Brown, RB, Miami Dolphins: 246 yards rushing, 12 receptions, 172 yards receiving and 4 TDs in the last two weeks. That’s how you earn the top spot on ETB’s weekly Stock Report, which has undoubtedly been the motivation for Brown the last two weeks. Or it could be something else. Before this performance and for the last few weeks of the offseason, every fantasy owner and writer was deriding Cam Cameron for the timeshare he proposed with Jesse Chatman. Maybe, just maybe, he handled the situation perfectly and finally gave Brown the motivation he needed. Whatever the case may be, Brown has gone from consolation RB2 prize to borderline RB1 and become a must-start. He’s posting eye-popping numbers in an otherwise miserable offense with little help.

Deion Branch, WR, Seattle Seahawks: After laying a surprising goose egg in Week 1, Matt Hasselbeck’s top WR has awoken and is on the brink of becoming a solid WR2. He didn’t find the endzone, but on Sunday against the banged-up 49ers defense Branch caught 7 balls for 130 yards. He also got more targets (11) than anyone else on the team, which bodes well for his fantasy prospects as the season pushes on. The six-year vet has a tough matchup at Pittsburgh in Week 5, but his docket lightens considerably after that.

Tampa Bay Defense: Before the Chicago Bears and Baltimore Ravens, the Tampa Bay Bucs team defense was the gold standard in terms of fantasy production. Draft them, plug them in, and don’t touch them. The guys who made them such a defensive force–Jon Lynch, Warren Sapp, Derrick Brooks, and Simeon Rice to name a few–have all moved on save for Brooks, and he’s no longer the playmaker he used to be. The one constant, however, is D-coordinator Monte Kiffin, whose defense has suddenly returned to fantasy relevance.

They’re currently allowing a league-low 11 points and just under 300 yards/per, an impressive feat considering the low expectations and lack of respect on draft day (mid-12th round). Keep in mind, however, that they’ve been fortunate to face struggling offenses–the Saints, Rams, Panthers–and haven’t had to defend bad field position much with the offense only turning it over four times. They’ll be tested this week on the road at Indianapolis.

Justin Fargas/Dominic Rhodes, RB, Oakland Raiders: It’s too early to tell how severe Lamont Jordan’s back injury is, but if he were to miss any length of time one of these two is going to see a huge boost in value. Jordan has a bye week to get things right, but he was in severe pain, was carted off the field, was in crutches in the locker room and it didn’t sound good after the game. He also has a history of back injuries. Fargas and Rhodes are available in most leagues, and both make sense as a speculative add. Rhodes becomes eligible to return from suspension after the bye, but for our money the younger and more dynamic Fargas has more value after his 179-yard performance on Sunday (with over 100 yards in the fourth quarter alone). The Raider offensive line is suddenly looking capable, and whoever gets snaps has produced this year.

Dallas Clark, TE, Indianapolis Colts: Outside of Antonio Gates, consistent fantasy production at the tight end position is often hard to come by. Now in his fifth NFL season and coming off a slightly shortened season due to injury, Clark has been a model of consistency and is on pace to easily record career highs in receptions, yards, and touchdown catches after tacking on 6 catches, 76 yards, and 2 TDs against the Broncos. We’re still waiting for word on teammate Marvin Harrison’s injury (below), but if he misses time Clark should see his looks increase even more. For the season, Clark has 19 receptions, 251 yards, and 4 TDs.

Arizona Defense: Don’t laugh. Like the Green Bay Packers, the Cards have been quietly laying the groundwork for a solid defense after what’s felt like decades of sub-mediocre results on that side of the ball. They haven’t been spectacular, but there are definite signs that they’re coming around behind the play of hard-hitting safety Adrian Wilson, linebacker Karlos Dansby, and defensive tackle Darnell Dockett. The Cards D is collectively allowing less than 100 yards on the ground and just over 200 yds through the air per game thus far, and are fifth in the league in total sacks. This week they’ll face off against the winless, turnover-prone Rams, the exact kind of opponent that makes this team D a safe plug-in play.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City Chiefs: Every week, the large and athletic Bowe does a little more to remind us of recent standout rookies Michael Clayton and Marques Colston. He has good ball skills, good timing, and excellent body control. Those are important skills when a combination of Damon Huard and Brodie Croyle will be responsible for getting you the ball. 8 catches for 164 yards and a score.

Michael Pittman/Earnest Graham, RB, Tampa Bay Bucs: After the Carnell Williams injury there are suddenly a ton of touches to go around in Tampa between Ernest Graham and Michael Pittman. Pittman is the more experienced, talented and complete back. He’s a tough dude who’s very strong in the passing game and can handle the ball all over the field. Graham is going to vulture some touchdowns here and there, but Pittman is the guy we expect to benefit the most from Buick’s injury.

Andre’ Davis, WR, Houston Texans: It’s important to point out here that we were on the Davis bandwagon prior to Sunday. My memory isn’t so good, but I think we said something like, “Andre’ Davis finishes with just a few receptions, fewer than 6, but ends up having a big fantasy day anyway because of one massive reception.” He finished with 5 receptions, 117 yards and a score with one catch of 35 yards and one of 45 yards. This guy isn’t a long-term answer to your wide receiver woes, but while the other Andre is on the shelf he’s as good of a bet as anybody to blow up on any given week.

Big Losers:

Chicago Defense: You’ve seen their litany of injuries enumerated, and on Sunday you saw the result. The Bears gave up an NFL-record 34 points in the fourth quarter. It was ugly. With 23.8 points allowed per game they’re giving up more than Buffalo, Arizona, San Francisco, Atlanta, Houston and Dallas. Their 228 passing yards/per put them behind St. Louis and the New York Giants. That’s embarrassing.

Baltimore Defense: The front seven still look strong, but that secondary is going to have to figure out how to stop big plays and big receivers or this is going to be like the Minnesota Vikings of 2006. Teams are throwing on the Ravens early and often, and despite giving up just 71 rushing yards a game they have allowed 230.8 yards passing and 22.5 points. Part of the problem is that they’re getting zero pressure on opposing QBs with just 6 sacks on the year (a number single-handedly tied by Osi Umenyiora on Sunday night), but a lot of it is just a lack of physicality and a multitude of embarrassing missed assignments.

Cedric Benson, RB, Chicago Bears: The Detroit Lions had been rather generous to opposing running backs coming into their home against the Bears, but we still advised you in last week’s Matchups to not go overboard in your projections for Benson. He responded well to our prediction, making little positive impact for his team in totaling 74 combined yards and averaging a paltry 3.3 YPC. Take away one 16-yard run, and his YPC drops down to 2.4. That’s just not very good, folks. Benson appears to have little to no burst through the line, and at this point Adrian Peterson deserves a few more touches per game. HC Lovie Smith made one move last week in benching Rex Grossman to help kickstart his offense; could he do the same with Benson?

Donovan McNabb, QB, Philadelphia Eagles: Just a week removed from being the lead player on our weekly Stock Report, McNabb comes crashing back down into the Big Losers basement. All that momentum McNabb and the Eagles offense rode into New York disappeared like the Mets in September (Philly fans, you should have known that two of your teams can’t both record big wins on the same day). The Giants defense, which had notched just 4 sacks in their previous three games, swallowed McNabb whole in tying an NFL record with 12 QB takedowns. With Brian Westbrook sidelined, McNabb couldn’t produce any offense on his own and looked like the same struggling QB we saw in the first two weeks of the year. This was a major step back to be sure.

Carnell Williams, RB, Tampa Bay Bucs: Williams suffered a torn patella tendon on Sunday and is done for the year. It remains to be seen whether or not he returns to the field ever again, but we’d be surprised if the Bucs don’t spend a high draft pick on a back in ‘08.

Javon Walker, WR, Denver Broncos: Walked seems convinced the swelling and irritation in his knee has nothing to do with the reconstructive surgery he underwent two years ago, but we’re not convinced. In his Monday press conference HC Mike Shanahan refused to say whether Walker would play next week, but we wouldn’t count on it. It also doesn’t help matters that Jay Cutler appears more comfortable throwing to Brandon Marshall, especially in the red zone.

Darrell Jackson, WR, San Francisco 49ers: Trent Dilfer is not a good quarterback, and he’s going to be the starter for up to six weeks following Alex Smith’s separated shoulder. After stepping in for Smith the portly Dilfer completed just 36.4% of his passes with a putrid 3.9 yards per attempt, 5 sacks and 2 INTs. He simply cannot be trusted to find Jackson with any consistency.

All St. Louis Rams Skill Players: The offensive line is in complete shambles right now. Nothing is working. In a matchup against the beatable Cowboy’s defense we needed to see some kind of spark, some kind of change in direction in terms of play calling or offensive cohesiveness. The Bulger injury becomes more disconcerting by the day, and with no consistent line or quarterback play nobody on this offense is going to be a consistent contributor.

Marvin Harrison, WR, Indianapolis Colts: Many people had the aging Harrison atop their wide receiver rankings coming into the season, so this injury is a huge deal. The Colts are calling it a knee bruise right now, but there has been speculation from ESPN’s Quadry Ismail and others that the injury appeared to be a MCL or knee sprain, which would likely sideline Harrison for at least a month. He wasn’t off to a great start before the injury, either.

Sell High:

Plaxico Burress, WR, New York Giants: Despite the persistent ankle injury Plaxico has managed to put up 6 TDs already. The ankle looks like a long-term headache that could eventually cause him to miss a few games, so if you can get a top wideout in exchange it should be strongly considered.

Shaun Alexander, RB, Seattle Seahawks: Alexander looks slow out there, like a shadow of his former self. He was never a burner, but he’s under 4.0 YPC for the second consecutive season and the wrist injury makes us nervous.

Jerry Porter, WR, Oakland Raiders: Porter managed just three catches this week, but he made two of them count so his fantasy line looked good. Daunte Culpepper only completed four passes to his wide receivers, and that’s going to be a problem.

Buy Low:

Vernon Davis, TE, San Francisco 49ers: When he comes back the 49ers will need his ability to turn short passes into big gains more than ever. Dilfer can’t find his guys downfield, and Vernon should be a consistent check down.

Stevonne Smith, WR, Carolina Panthers: Smith had a second consecutive bad game on Sunday, but don’t expect him to stay down for long. His talent and playmaking ability transcends whatever problems they have on offense, and Delhomme should be back in a week or two… should be.

Lee Evans, WR, Buffalo Bills: Evans showed signs of life on Sunday, but he still hasn’t had a big game yet. The schedule isn’t very tough and they’ll come eventually.

Andre Johnson, WR, Houston Texans: After suffering a loss with a star on the sidelines fantasy owners tent to get antsy. Johnson’s owner in your league may be wondering if he can wait it out, and you may be able to snatch up a premier receiver on the cheap.