Empty the Bench

Two weeks down, fourteen to go; it’s time to get into the nitty and the gritty of weekly fantasy football–who to start, who to bench and who to add for spot starts. To aid your worthy cause, each week during the 2007 NFL season ETB will break down a few key fantasy matchups at all the positions that matter. For each roster spot we’ll lay out our Five Strong Plays, two players you need to Temper Your Expectations for, one Sneaky Play of the Week, and one Dud of the Week.

Note that these are not always the guys we think will score the most points or the least points: there will always be obvious situations and choices we ignore. These also aren’t all sneaky plays. These are just the matchups that we feel deserve mention*.

Make sure to check back on these matchups the following week to see how each one of our picks actually fared. That way you can either bow at the ETB altar or chuckle at our incompetence.

Good luck, and godspeed.

Five Strong Quarterback Plays

Jon Kitna, DET @ PHI: We all know God hates the Eagles anyway, so you have to think that since he’s already been touched by the hand of God once that Kitna has quite a bit going for him this week. That, plus the fact that the Lions are throwing the ball with record-breaking abandon (65 dropbacks last week alone against the VIkings) and have weapons aplenty to cash in on all those passes. Kitna is almost always good for at least one pick per game, and defensive coordinator Jim Johnson is known for his “exotic” blitz packages, but 275+ yards and 3 TDs is very possible.

29-46, 446 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 2 Fumbles Lost

Donovan McNabb, PHI vs. DET: McNabb has looked terrible so far, consistently missing open receivers and showing a complete lack of touch on anything over 10 yards. It’s a bit like Carson Palmer looked early last season, but he recovered nicely. We think this is the week McNabb shows significant progress at home versus one of the worst secondaries in football.

21-26, 381 yards, 4 TDs, 1 Fumble Lost

Vince Young, TEN @ NO: The New Orleans defense is scrambling to find any semblance or order and consistency right now after giving up 31, 41 and 39 points over their last three games dating back to last season. They’re simply not ready to deal with a complete wild card like Vince Young, especially with the fact that they’ll need to focus on the strong Titans rushing attack to stay in it. The Saints don’t have any linebackers or safeties who can keep up with Young either, so expect some strong production on the ground in addition to his two passing touchdowns.

Matt Hasselbeck, SEA vs. CIN: We’ve openly derided the common perception of Hasselbeck as a top-tier fantasy quarterback, but he is very solid. We don’t see him as an every-week starter like most people do, but this is a week you’re going to want him in your lineup. Last week the Bungles allowed Derek Anderson to throw for 328 yards and 5 touchdowns. Derek Anderson. Playing at home against this sieve of a defense, expect a minimum of 280 yards and 2 TDs from the other Hasselbeck.

24-37, 248 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs

Tom Brady, NE vs. BUF: We almost feel guilty listing Brady here; it doesn’t take a fantasy expert to plug Brady into your lineup after he’s averaged 288 yards and 3 TDs during the first two weeks of the season. Well, get over it. The Bills pass defense is off to a good start in staking their claim as one of the league’s worst pass defenses (267.5 allowed/per). Their best CB, Terrence McGee, is one of many guys hobbled or out in the starting secondary. It all adds up to a cake matchup for Brady & Co.

22-28, 291 yards, 4 TDs, 1 Fumble Lost

Temper Your Expectations

Tony Romo, DAL @ CHI: Romo has done his best to prove me wrong so far, tossing 6 TDs with just 1 INT with 531 yards in the season’s first two weeks. Unfortunately, it comes to an end on Sunday night. Soldier Field is where fantasy players go to die. Even with the loss of Mike Brown, no matchup is as big of a fantasy buzzkill as playing the Bears on the road. Opposing QBs are averaging just 210 yards, .5 TDs and 1 INT against Chicago thus far. Their aggressive style just causes too many turnovers, too many sacks and too much havoc. Many teams are stuck without another viable option, but if you do we urge you to use it.

22-35, 329 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT

Derek Anderson, CLE @ OAK: We apologize if this insults any seasoned vets out there, but please: don’t start Derek Anderson. Yes, we know he put up 5 touchdowns with good yardage last week. Let’s not forget this is the same Derek Anderson who posted a 63.1 QB Rating last season and the same Oakland defense which allowed a league-best 150.8 passing yards a game in 2006.

18-37, 248 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs, 1 Rushing TD

Sneaky Play of the Week

Jason Campbell, WSH vs. NYG: I was a skeptic, but watching this kid play he seems to have decent poise, arm strength and accuracy. Once he irons out the finer points of the game Campbell could be a pretty decent player. Not great, but decent. This week he faces off against the NFL’s worst pass defense of 2007 (310.5 yards per game!) and fifth worst of 2006. Playing at home, I think he re-establishes his connection from last season with Chris Cooley and Santana Moss makes him look good more than once en route to 270 yards and 2 TDs.

16-34, 190 yards, 1 TD

Dud of the Week

Rex Grossman, CHI vs. DAL: Rexy boy is the weekly whipping boy of ETB, but last week we finally showed him some love for a matchup at home that had all the making of a characteristic big game for Grossman. He flopped, and the Chicago offense has yet to score a touchdown entering Week 3. In front of a national audience on Sunday we expect the Mental Midget to flop again against the league’s second-worst pass defense (293.5 yards/game). He’s going to be asked to make plays after Dallas scores and we have no faith in his ability to do so, even if the Dallas defense is hurt all over.

15-32, 195 yards, 0 TDs, 3 INTs

Five Strong Running Back Plays

LaMont Jordan, OAK vs. CLE: LaMont Jordan was given a four-week tryout for the starting gig when Dominic Rhodes received his suspension, and Jordan has taken full advantage. He’s playing like a legitimate RB1 right now (averaging 159 total yards with 9 total receptions), just a year too late for those of us who took him in the top 15 picks in 2006. In our ETB league I received an offer of LaMont and Travis Henry for Joseph Addai, and with such an even deal this matchup was the deciding factor. I think Jordan is going to shred a Browns defense that is currently giving up 171 total yards a game to opposing offenses. I also don’t expect too see many more offensive fireworks from Cleveland, meaning Jordan should stay active all game. Start him in all formats.

28 carries, 117 yards, 1 TD, 2 catches, 32 yards

Clinton Portis, WSH vs. NYG: Coming into 2007 we fully expected Ladell Betts to have a superior fantasy season to the injury riddled Portis, and there’s still time for that to happen. But Clinton has looked solid in two games thus far and should keep it rolling at home against a pathetic Giants defense that let nobody DeShawn Wynn rack up 68 total yards and two touchdowns in the Meadowlands. Portis will be good for at least 80 yards and a score.

14 carries, 60 yards, 1 TD, 6 catches, 37 yards, 1 Fumble Lost

Brian Westbrook, PHI vs. DET: Brian Westbrook has been the lone bright spot for an otherwise disappointing Eagles offense thus far. He’s just so active in all facets of the game, and has been leaned on even more with McNabb seemingly incapable of finding receivers downfield. After Ernie Sims, the Detroit defense simply doesn’t have the horses to run with this playmaker. He’ll rack up close to 100 yards receiving thanks to a heavy dose of screen passes.

14 carries, 110 yards, 3 TDs, 5 catches, 111 yards

Adrian Peterson, MIN @ KC: Tarvaris Jackson may or may not play, but you have to think Minnesota will be committed to the run either way after last week’s performance. The Chiefs defense hasn’t been terrible this year and Arrowhead is always a tough atmosphere, but this Peterson kid is special. He bursts through holes like a vet, blows up DBs like a linebacker and spins like a whirling dervish in traffic. He didn’t put up the numbers he should have against the Lions last week, but he wasn’t really given the chance. The Minnesota defense isn’t going to let the Chiefs get any big leads, so the Viqueens will be running. Don’t hesitate to plug Peterson in.

25 carries, 102 yards, 1 TD, 3 catches, 48 yards, 1 Fumble Lost

LenDale White, TEN @ NO: I was mocked for my selection of LenDale in the 7th round of ETB’s fantasy draft, and the boo birds got louder after Week 1. It didn’t bother me though, because I think White is clearly the more valid rusher in a superb Tennessee rushing attack. The Titans want White to be their main guy, they’ve already given Brown a shot and he’s not to be relied on. Brown can’t break tackles and always breaks down. He’s the goal line guy already, and once Chris Brown breaks a nail White is going to be a borderline RB2. Facing the Saints terrible defense that’s giving up over 130 yards a game to halfbacks and all kinds of fantasy points, look for a breakout performance from Stay Puft White.

Temper Your Expectations

Frank Gore, SF @ PIT: You’re going to start Frank Gore every week regardless of matchup, and it’s the right thing to do. Still, don’t expect much against a Pittsburgh defense that has only given up 5 total first downs and 0 touchdowns on the ground and just 74 rushing yards a game. Alex Smith hasn’t taken the step forward we expected so far and Darrell Jackson is dropping balls like he’s Troy Williamson, so the Steelers will be all over Gore on Sunday like Oprah on a baked ham.

14 carries, 39 yards, 2 catches, 12 yards

Marshawn Lynch, BUF @ NE: In general we’re convinced that Lynch is every bit the RB3 or borderline RB2 he was drafted to be, but we don’t expect much this week. New England has been brutal against opposing running backs giving up the fewest rushing yards in football (56 yards a game). They even bottled up LaDainian Tomlinson, allowing him to rush for just 43 yards on 18 carries (2.4 YPC). Lynch won’t fare much better, especially if JP Losman can’t get his act in gear.

20 carries, 74 yards, 1 TD, 2 catches, 6 yards

Sneaky Play of the Week

Ladell Betts, WSH vs. NYG: Oh, and a sneaky play it is indeed. Betts saw his 18 touches from Week 1 reduced to 8 in Week 2. Portis looks like he could be a workhorse again, but it would be a mistake for the Washington coaching staff to lean on him too heavily just yet. We fully expect to see Ladell more involved again, especially in a game the Redskins should be in control of most of the afternoon. The versatile Betts put up 144 total yards and 6 receptions versus the Giants in Week 17 last season because they don’t have the linebackers to keep up with him. There are better RB3 plays out there, but don’t hesitate to use Betts as a flex play if you need him.

7 carries, 9 yards, 1 catch, 13 yards

Dud of the Week

Jamal Lewis, CLE @ OAK: Once again, we all know the offensive explosion for the Browns last week was a fluke. We also know the Raiders are one of the best defenses in football (even if they haven’t shown it yet) and even better at home. Jamal Lewis had only 46 totals yards and a 3.2 YPC in Week 1 against a quality defense in Pittsburgh, and we see something equally weak on the horizon in Oakland.

13 carries, 51 yards, 2 catches, 22 yards

Five Strong Wide Receiver Plays

Santana Moss, WSH vs. NYG: We’ll be listing the WR1 for whatever team faces the Giants every week here until New York finds a way to field a pro-caliber secondary. Through Week 2, they’re giving up an astounding 310 yards to their opponents through the air, and there’s no reason to think R.W. McQuarters, Corey Webster, et al will suddenly remember what it takes to actually cover somebody. Moss is one of the quickest receivers in the NFL; look for him to score at least once and go off for something like 140 yards.

3 catches, 82 yards

Chris Chambers, MIA @ NYJ: Chris Chambers has already produced as many 6+ reception games in 2007 as he did in all of 2006. Trent Green isn’t very good, but at least he’s fairly accurate compared to the two-headed monster of Joey Harrington and Daunte Culpepper. This Jets secondary is raw and struggles to keep up with athletic downfield threats, so Chambers should continue his strong start with at least 5 receptions and 80 yards.

6 catches, 101 yards

Wes Welker, NE vs. BUF: The Bills may have trotted out the worst pass defense in the NFL on opening day, and they’ve lost a couple of key contributors from that unit already. Buffalo has already given up 29 receptions and 416 yards to wideouts in the first two weeks, with really no chance to improve this week. They need to stop Randy Moss first and foremost, so expect them to go into cover-2s and leave the middle of the field wide open for Welker. He’s averaging 7 receptions, 76 yards and .5 touchdowns so far and we expect something slightly better than that Sunday afternoon.

6 catches, 69 yards

Marques Colston, NO vs. TEN: We’re just as disappointed as you are with the New Orleans offense. We’re still confident they’ll come around sooner rather than later, and they get another chance to do so at home after farting all over their fans last week against Tampa Bay. Colston is the only guy who has produced thus far, with 14 receptions, 117 yards, and 1 TD. If the Saints break back out this week against a Titans defense ranked 24th against the pass, it’ll be with Colston leading the way.

Deion Branch, SEA vs. CIN: The Bengals are giving up 2 touchdowns a game to opposing wide receivers and they’re on the road versus a very cerebral and competent passing game this week. After Branch was skunked in Week 1, Mike Holmgren lived up to his word and got him more involved Week 2: 7 receptions for 122 yards. The West Coast offense run by Seattle is very rhythm-oriented, and now that the Branch-Hasselbeck connection is in a rhythm we expect it to keep going.

6 catches, 77 yards, 1 TD

Temper Your Expectations

Darrell Jackson, SF @ PIT: The 49ers brought in Jackson to be a legitimate go-to wide receiver, but he appears to have little interest in being that. He’s dogged it, alligator-armed passed and flat out dropped balls. That’s not going to cut it against a passing defense that has already shut out the more talented Lee Evans and Braylon Edwards. Alex Smith hasn’t been reliable in the least either, and the Pittsburgh pass rush won’t allow him to find Jackson on any deep plays.

4 catches, 69 yards

Javon Walker, DEN vs. JAX: There aren’t many fantasy owners who can afford to bench Javon, but don’t expect too much this week. With opposing wideouts failing to score against Jacksonville so far and averaging just 6 receptions and 87 yards total, it could be an ugly performance. Additionally, the Jags have been surprisingly soft on the ground, so Travis Henry & Co could be asked to carry a bulk of the load.

2 catches, 10 yards

Sneaky Plays of the Week

Jason Avant, PHI vs. DET: Very sneakily, Avant has led the Iggles in receptions and receiving yards each of the first two weeks. He’s also got a score on his resume, something the more highly-touted Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown don’t. As we’re fond of mentioning, the Detroit secondary is eminently beatable. Brown has failed to create much separation so far and Kevin Curtis has dropped a few key passes, so Avant could once again be very active.

1 catch, 9 yards

Roydell Williams, TEN @ NO: His name kind of bothers me, but the Titans are short on options out wide and should be able to produce against a soft New Orleans secondary. He was good for 4 catches, 72 yards and a score last week. It would be overly optimistic to expect that much again, but a possible score could be in the offing and you could do a lot worse for a WR4.

Dud of the Week

Lee Evans, BUF @ NE: It doesn’t get much easier for Lee Evans. After facing Champ Bailey in Week 1 and Pittsburgh in Week 2 he gets to travel to New England and should see a healthy dose of Asante Samuel. We don’t expect much, but it’s hard to recommend benching a guy who can explode for 150 and 2 on any given Sunday. Assuming he posts the modest production we project, Evans becomes one of the best buy-low candidates in fantasy football next week.

1 catch, 7 yards

Five Strong Tight End Plays

Dallas Clark, IND @ HOU: Clark had a strong game Week 2, recording 7 receptions for 69 yards and a score. It’s an offense that’s going to be in scoring position often and he’s been thrown to 16 times already this year, which makes him one of the more active tight ends in football. Clark also has the luxury of Mervin Harrison, Reggie Wayne and Joseph Addai taking all the attention off of him every week. That will benefit him in this week’s tilt versus an improved Houston defense.

4 catches, 58 yards, 1 TD

Kellen Winslow, CLE @ OAK: There are very few circumstances where you bench your starting TE after a 6-reception, 100-yard, 1-TD game. This is not one of them. We all knew Winslow had the talent below the shoulders to be a stud TE in the NFL, and he’s finally healthy and starting to reach his potential with 10 catches and 183 yards on the year. With Cleveland QB Derek Anderson under pressure all day and Braylon Edwards well covered by Nnamdi Asomugha, Winslow will see a lot of looks.

6 catches, 88 yards

Eric Johnson, NO vs. TEN: Keith Bullock and Friends were a tough matchup for tight ends in 2006, but so far this season they’ve given up 8 catches for 144 yards and 1 TD versus the position. We think this will be a tough matchup for the Saints, and Drew Brees seems committed to getting Johnson involved (14 looks). Devery Henderson was benched on Sunday for poor play and may see his workload decreased this week as well, opening up more opportunity for Johnson.

Chris Cooley, WSH vs. NYG: He’s been a little slow out of the gates thus far with only 35 total yards, but Cooley is one of our favorite weekly TE plays. Down the stretch last season he was Jason Campbell’s favorite target, and Campbell showed a propensity for dumping off to Cooley short and finding him down the seams. In this divisional matchup against a Giants defense that has already given up 174 yards and 3 TDs to TEs in just two weeks, Cooley will be good for a touch’ and 50 yards.

3 catches, 19 yards, 1 TD

Todd Heap, BAL vs. ARZ: Heap is always good at home, and the Arizona linebackers aren’t anything special against the pass. Todd averaged nearly 60 yards and caught 4 of his 6 TDs in Baltimore, and he went off for 76 yards, 7 receptions and 1 TD there last week. As the Ravens passing game deals with injuries and inconsistency from Demetrius Williams and Mark Clayton, Heap keeps the ball rolling with 65 yards, 6 receptions and a possible score.

4 catches, 60 yards

Temper Your Expectations

Benjamin Watson, NE vs. BUF: He’ll probably never put up the yardage of a Kellen Winslow or Antonio Gates, but like we said last week, if your starting tight end scores a touchdown anything on top of that is gravy. With Daniel Graham finally out of the picture, Watson is the clear-cut TE in New England, and was on the field for the most offensive snaps (58 of 64 plays) of any skill player not named Brady. He’s reached the endzone twice already and you have to start him because of the favorable matchup, but don’t expect a TD for the third week in a row.

2 catches, 17 yards, 1 TD

Sneaky Play of the Week

Owen Daniels, HOU vs. IND: With Andre Johnson on the shelf and the other wideouts in Houston shaky options at best, Daniels should be a very active target for QB Matt Schaub on Sunday. If the Colts get up early, the Texans will be throwing all day and we like Daniels for 5-6 receptions and a possible score.

7 catches, 56 yards

Dud of the Week

Alge Crumpler, ATL vs. CAR: Help is on the way, Falcons fans, after free-agent QB Byron Leftwich signed a two-year, $7 million deal yesterday. (Does the team think Vick might return to the field in three years?) Leftwich is certainly no Touchdown Jesus and will need time to pick up the system and acquaint himself with the personnel, but the end of the short-lived Joey Blue Skies Era can’t come quickly enough. The Atlanta offense is still searching for their first passing TD of the season, and though Harrington is targeting Crump more than anyone else–Joey is incapable of throwing the ball down the field–you may have to bide your time before any big numbers. He’s coming off a 56 catch, 780 yards, and 8 TD season, and is a solid “buy low” guy if you think Leftwich can make a difference.

6 catches, 63 yards, 1 TD

Five Strong Team Defense Plays

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston: We’ve said before that the Colts defense doesn’t exactly get our heart palpitating, but through two weeks they’re tied with the Texans for 4th in the league in total points allowed (24). Their decent pass rush will serve them well today, as the Texans will be playing from behind and throwing often… without their All-World wideout Andre Johnson in the lineup. Houston is much improved on offense, but you can’t expect much from them here with the deck heavily stacked against them.

24 points allowed, 3 sacks, 2 INTs

Minnesota Vikings @ Kansas City: The Chiefs rival the mighty Chicago Bears offense in terms of ineptitude thus far. Yes, they’ve faced two good defenses and both have been road games, but they’re ranked 27th in rushing yardage, 24th in passing, and 31st in total points scored. The Viqueens strength on defense is stopping the run, allowing only 76/game, which is bad news for Larry Johnson and the Chiefs as they’ll have to lean on either Damon Huard or Brodie Croyle more than they’d like to. Turnovers, turnovers, turnovers.

13 points allowed, 1 sack

Dallas Cowboys @ Chicago: It’s the Bears. It’s Rex Grossman. Start Dallas with confidence.

10 points allowed, 3 sacks, 3 INTs, 1 Fumble Recovery, 1 TD

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. San Francisco: Just about anytime the Steelers are at home it’s a solid bet that their opponent will struggle to run the ball, turn the ball over a few times, and give up a few sacks. With Frank Gore kept relatively in check, Alex Smith will be forced to throw and hasn’t yet ironed out the kinks with his main targets in Vernon Davis and Darrell Jackson. This could be a low-scoring affair.

16 points allowed, 2 sacks, 1 INT, 1 TD

Washington Redskins vs. NY Giants: The ‘Skins defense has performed surprisingly well, harassing Donovan McNabb on Monday night and generally blanketing the Eagles receivers and not allowing them much separation off the line of scrimmage. They’re ranked 9th in the league against the rush, too, despite having faced a couple good backs in Brian Westbrook and Ronnie Brown (okay, Brown isn’t that hot). Plaxico Burress is dinged up (finger, ankle), second-year WR Sinorice Moss is out, RB Brandon Jacobs is still out, and Eli Manning still isn’t 100%. The Giants might put up some points, but they’ll turn it over too.

24 points allowed, 2 sacks, 2 INTs

Temper Your Expectations

Denver Broncos vs. Jacksonville: We’re still trying to figure out the Denver defense, which has the NFL’s top-ranked unit versus the pass but in the bottom five for stopping the run. The Jaguars vaunted running game hasn’t been up to snuff thus far, but David Garrard has been surprisingly efficient and has yet to commit a turnover. We don’t see much scoring on the road for Jacksonville, but something about this matchup screams low fantasy stats for both team defenses.

23 points allowed, 3 sacks, 2 Fumble Recoveries

San Diego Chargers @ Green Bay: If you own the Chargers defense, you almost have to roll with them every week. This Green Bay offense looks better than last year, though, and Brett Favre seems more confident in his offensive line and receivers. That said, he can sometimes get wild in big games like this when he tries to do too much, so SD is likely good for a pick or two, and a few sacks, at a minimum. The Pack should still put points on the board though at home regardless.

31 points allowed, 2 sacks

Sneaky Play of the Week

Arizona Cardinals @ Baltimore: As we mentioned in our Week Three Stock Report, the Ravens offense is still struggling to establish their identity. Early word is that Steve McNair will start this week, but we’re not sure that’s the right move with Kyle Boller acquitting himself rather well last week (23-35, 185 yards, 2 TDs, 0 Turnovers). The Cardinals D seems to have (finally) turned a corner after years of being a total pushover, and are currently ranked 9th overall in allowing just 282 yards/game. Karlos Dansby and Adrian Wilson are two of the most underrated hitters in the league.

26 points allowed, 4 sacks, 1 Fumble Recovery

Dud of the Week

Buffalo Bills @ New England: Their secondary is in absolute shambles, they’re on the road, and the Patriots pass attack is in midseason form. The Bills defense just ain’t what it used to be–in fact, only the Cleveland Browns are allowing more yards. Move along, nothing to see here.

38 points allowed, 1 sack, 1 Fumble Recovery

*Disclaimer: There are some players who are always must starts, and you should know who they are. To make things easy, we’ve picked a few guys at each position who will never be listed in our Top Matchups because it just wouldn’t be fair– they’re studs, simple as that. They are: QB Peyton Manning, QB Carson Palmer, RB LaDainian Tomlinson, RB Steven Jackson, RB Larry Johnson, WR Chad Johnson, WR Stevonne Smith, TE Antonio Gates, DEF Chicago and DEF Baltimore.