Empty the Bench

There’s a lot of similarity in playing fantasy sports and playing the stock market. In both, you want to try to buy low and sell high. To do so, you need to keep your finger on the pulse of the market. You never want to pay market value or above, and getting in on the ground floor with an emerging player can absolutely make your portfolio. Everybody is searching for that penny stock that could explode. With that philosophy in mind, ETB sorts through Week Two results and takes a look at a few of the players who have seen the biggest gains and losses in their value.

Big Gainers:

Matt Schaub, QB, Houston Texans: As long as Schaub has Andre Johnson making him look good he could be a Jake Delhomme-type of fantasy player. There probably won’t be huge totals to be had, but he’s proving that you can expect modest production and feel comfortable using him for spot starts or in good matchups. We didn’t know a lot going into this season, but the early returns are good. His value will increase once the bye weeks begin, and will most certainly decrease if Johnson misses any extended time.

**UPDATE** Johnson has been diagnosed with a sprained left knee and could be out for several weeks.

DeShawn Wynn, RB, Green Bay Packers: Brandon Jackson has been given every opportunity to seize the featured back role in Green Bay and has simply disappointed. We were psyched to see Jackson face the soft Giants defense, but while he was rushing 17 times for 35 yards and no scores, Wynn toted the rock just 10 times and racked up 50 yards with a pair of TDs. Where Jackson failed to capitalize, the little-known Wynn excelled with his opportunities. HC Mike McCarthy said his role could increase this week at home against a tough San Diego defense. Not a great immediate matchup, but he’s a must add nonetheless.

Wes Welker, WR, New England Patriots: The Pats gambled by basically retooling their entire WR corps during the offseason, and so far two of their three big acquisitions are paying big dividends (Donte’ Stallworth has been nearly invisible.) In the shadow of Randy Moss’ two monster performances, the Pats’ new slot receiver has quietly recorded 14 receptions, 152 yards and a touchdown in the season’s first two weeks. Those are easily WR3 numbers, and the rapport with QB Tom Brady appears to be legit. Look for opposing defenses to key in on Randy Moss more and more as the season progresses, dropping a lot of safeties back into coverage and leaving the flat and the middle of the field open for Welker to operate.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City Chiefs: Bowe literally had to steal his first first career touchdown from teammate and intended target Tony Gonzalez, but he now has 5 catches for 64 yards and a score. A common description of recent successful rookie receivers: strong, reasonably athletic, big, possession guys. Michael Clayton, Marques Colston… Dwayne Bowe? We wouldn’t count on this passing game for much of anything, but Bowe’s size and athleticism are worth a look in deeper leagues. He’ll have ample opportunity to be on the receiving end of the limited number of passes Damon Huard can actually complete with Samie Parker battling a torn hamstring.

Isaac Bruce, WR, St. Louis Rams: He’s clearly the third option on this offense at best, but don’t tell Bruce that. The old man caught 8 balls for 145 yards versus a pretty decent San Francisco defense on Sunday (trust us, they’re a decent defense). He laid a stinker in Week One, but in this offense Bruce should see plenty of looks. He’s only a situational or average flex start right now, but Old Isaac is keeping Drew Bennett at bay for now.

LaMont Jordan, RB, Oakland Raiders: Is Jordan back? Chalk up his impressive performance in Week 1 as a favorable home matchup against the Detroit Lions, but we didn’t see this coming on the road in Denver: 25 carries for 159 yards (unfortunately, no TDs). There’s a very good chance he’s in for a big, big week against the generous Cleveland Browns “defense” in Week 3, and with every strong performance the suspended Dominic Rhodes becomes less and less relevant. Jordan’s continued health is the key here.

James Jones, WR, Green Bay Packers: Rookie wide receivers traditionally take time to adjust to NFL defenses, but this year a pack of newcomers are looking to make immediate impacts. Calvin Johnson is no secret, but Bowe and James Jones are also guys in good situations that are only going to get better as the season goes on. Against the woeful Giants last Sunday, Brett Favre showed full confidence in Jones, and the third-round pick ended up with 4 catches for 75 yards. We’re not high on second-year WR Greg Jennings, and feel like Jones will establish himself as the clear-cut WR2 in Green Bay.

Big Losers:

Brandon Jackson, RB, Green Bay Packers: See DeShawn Wynn, above. According to the Green Bay Press Gazette, Wynn “will get more carries” this week and “could displace Brandon Jackson” as the Packers’ primary running back. Jackson’s window of opportunity is barely cracked open at this point, though owners should remember it is a long season.

Chris Brown, RB, Tennessee Titans: If Brown again equals or even comes close to the 175 yards rushing he totaled in Week 1 during any given week of the ‘07 season, we’ll be absolutely shocked. The Titans are still invested in LenDale White as their potential featured back for the near future, and the Stay Puft Marshmallow Man is still the starting tailback. This team has one of the most underrated offensive lines in the NFL, but Brown just seems completely incapable of breaking tackles and is a prime candidate to break down by midseason. In Week Two, Brown came back down to earth with 12 carries and 34 yards; it also doesn’t look like he’ll get many goal-line carries.

Larry Johnson, RB, Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs are making a strong case as the NFL’s worst offense, and as a likely top-four pick in your fantasy draft Johnson could stake his claim as the least productive top-tier back in ‘07. Granted, you can pretty much throw last week’s game on the road against the Bears out the window–no one expected much from anyone on the KC offense–but owners have to be sweating a bit with so many solid rush defenses on the Chiefs’ schedule (SD twice, MIN this week, JAX, GB, Denver twice). He’s under 100 yards rushing on the season through two games, and has yet to score. Buy low if you’re confident in him; sell high while you still can if not.

Demetrius Williams, WR, Baltimore Ravens: You’ve probably read more hype about Williams here on ETB than on any other fantasy site out there, but as much as it pains us to say it the promising second-year player hasn’t yet delivered and needs a downgrade. The Ravens offense seems to be in serious flux (are they a run-first team with McGahee? Does Billick really want to pass first? Is McNair or Boller the answer at QB?), and until they hammer out their game plan and achieve some consistency, starting any Ravens wideout–including Williams–will remain a dicey proposition.

Ronnie Brown, RB, Miami Dolphins: He’s gone from one of the most promising young backs in the NFL to a guy who depresses us more and more with every two-yard rush, which are really piling up. We were skeptical about all the talk of Jesse Chatman cutting into Brown’s snaps and carries, but it’s looking like a real possibility as Cam Cameron’s offense continues to sputter. Brown’s line for the team’s Week 2 home opener: 11 carries, 2 receptions, 69 combined yards, 0 TDs. The ‘Fins play a few generous defenses in the coming weeks (NYJ, CLE, NYG), but Chatman’s omnipresent shadow is looming more and more.

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars: Regular ETB readers already know how we feel about him–the words “no thanks” sum it up nicely–so we won’t beat this into the ground too much. Long before the season started we predicted MJD would not come close to equaling last year’s breakout stats, and so far he’s doing his best to prove us right. After another dismal performance in Week Two (11 carries, 1 reception, 41 combined yards, 0 TDs), Jones-Drew is finding himself on the outside looking in with Fred Taylor performing, well, better if not that great. Team doctors took him for x-rays following the team’s win over Atlanta; stay tuned, they’re being mysterious about the possible ailment.

Sell High:

Jamal Lewis, RB, Cleveland Browns: You don’t really think this was anything but a fluke, do you? It was the Bungles.
Carnell Williams, RB, Tampa Bay Bucs: He’s equaled his touchdown total from all of last season already.
Braylon Edwards, WR, Cleveland Browns: Derek Anderson won’t throw for 5 touchdowns in a game for the rest of his life. We don’t trust him to get Braylon the ball on a weekly basis either.
Jake Delhomme, QB, Carolina Panthers: Stevonne Smith made him look good on Sunday, singlehandedly making two of those touchdowns happen through sheer skill and force of will.
Ahman Green, RB, Houston Texans: Don’t let one game fool you, Green has been on a steep decline for two years and the toughest part of the schedule is yet to come.

Buy Low:

Kevin Jones, RB, Detroit Lions: He’s slated to get 10+ touches next week and should be the full-time starter in Week 4. When healthy and in this offense, Jones is a borderline RB2.
Brandon Jacobs, RB, New York Giants: Jacobs has been walking around the locker room with hardly any limp and been in good spirits, saying he’ll be back a lot sooner than originally anticipated.
All Relevant New Orleans Saints: We refuse to believe this offensive juggernaut has ground to a halt. There’s too much talent on the field and the brain trust is too smart.
DeAngelo Williams, RB, Carolina Panthers: DeShaun Foster just hasn’t been that impressive thus far, and DeAngelo is clearly the future here. It’s a matter of when, not if.
Lee Evans, WR, Buffalo Bills: Last season Lee Evans stormed out of the gates to, well, ah, 44 yards in the first two weeks. He saw Champ Bailey in Week 1 and a tough Pitt D in Week 2. Don’t sweat it.
Brandon Marshall, WR, Denver Broncos: The guy is just too big and strong for most of today’s smallish defensive backs to keep up with. He and Cutler also have a nice rapport, with Cutler looking to him often near the endzone.