Empty the Bench

With the regular season in full swing, it’s time to get into the nitty and the gritty of weekly fantasy football: who to start, who to bench and who to add for a spot start. To aid your noble cause, every week during the 2007 NFL season ETB will break down a few key fantasy matchups at Quarterback, Wide Receiver, Running Back, Tight End, and Team Defense. For each roster spot we’ll lay out our Five Strong Plays, two players you need to Temper Your Expectations for, one Sneaky Play of the Week, and one Dud of the Week.

Note that these are not the five players we predict to score the most points or the least points: there will always be obvious situations and choices we don’t mention. These also aren’t all sneaky plays. These are just the matchups that we feel warrant mention*. As always, feel free to post your take or critique for any of the picks in the comments section.

Make sure to check back on these articles the following week, as we’ll be updating how each player listed below actually performed. That way you can either bow at the ETB altar or laugh at our incompetence.

Good luck, and good hunting.

Five Strong Quarterback Plays

Vince Young, TEN vs. IND: The Indianapolis defense was impressive last Thursday, especially the rushing D, no doubt. But one game isn’t enough to convince us this will be a great unit, especially just one year removed from nearly setting a record in rushing yards allowed and after an offseason with hardly any upgrades at any position. Last season in Tennesse, Vince rushed for 78 yards and tossed a pair of scores. You know Indy is going to come out trying to cool off a rushing game that produced 282 yards last week, and that should open up plenty of seams for Young to find his sub-par receivers in addition to what he does on the ground.

Actual: 17-27, 184 yards, 1 TD, 5 rushes, 53 yards

Brett Favre, GB @ NYG: We’ll give this another shot, even though neither of us is a Favre fan. The Green Bay defense is for real and they should give Brett plenty of short fields to work with, plus the Giants’ secondary is an absolute joke. Brett will come out firing and find Donald Driver open all day. New York also lost their leading pass rusher this week, Osi Umenyiora, while Michael Strahan is still getting back into shape, so Favre will have plenty of time to find his guys deep.

Actual: 29-38, 286 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Donovan McNabb, PHI vs. WSH: We knew the Packers defense was going to be a decent unit this year, but on Sunday they looked dominant. We’re willing to chalk Donovan’s performance up to their stellar cornerbacks and defensive ends, and like him to come out strong in the home opener. While the Washington safeties are excellent, they’re better hitters than cover men. Reggie Brown, Kevin Curtis, and Jason Avant are a legit trio that will have their way with the Redskin corners.

Actual: 28-46, 240 yards, 0 TDs, 2 rushes, 15 yards

Philip Rivers, SD @ NE: New England made the Jets look pretty bad last week, but the Chargers are another animal altogether. This is the week the Pats start to feel the loss of Richard Seymour and Rodney Harrison. Adalius Thomas will try to keep up with Antonio Gates, and do better than most, but Gates cannot be stopped. Vincent Jackson should also get on track with his first touchdown of 2007 this week. Hopefully LT doesn’t vulture another TD pass from Rivers on Sunday; this has to be the game of the week.

Actual: 19-30, 179 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 6 yards rushing

Ben Roethlisberger, PITT vs. BUF: Big Ben was our Sneaky Play of the Week last edition and he came up big for us. It continues this week at home against the mediocre Bills defense. Pittsburgh came into the season saying they were going to spread out their formations and stretch the field with deep routes and lots of 3- and 4-wide receiver sets. They followed through early, then slowed it down after staking a big lead on the Browns. With rock-solid Hines Ward, emerging star Santonio Holmes and red-zone extraordinaire Heath Miller in the fold, Ben is looking like one of the best QB2s in football this season.

Actual: 21-34, 242 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

Temper Your Expectations

Marc Bulger, STL vs. SF: Offensive football was set back 10 years Monday night in that 49ers/Cards matchup–at least during the first half–but one thing we learned is that this rebuilt San Fran defense has a new, mean-spirited attitude. Nate Clements, Walt Harris, and the rest of the secondary kept Boldin and Fitz in check almost all night, and I’ll be damned if Patrick Willis doesn’t turn into a perennial Pro Bowler this year. The rookie is just nasty. It’s going to take the Rams a week or more to adjust to life without Orlando Pace. You can only bench Bulger if you have a great QB2 option in any given week, but this is a performance to temper your expectations for.

Actual: 24-41, 368 yards, 1 TD

Matt Hasselbeck, SEA @ ARZ: The ‘Zona defense showed some grit on Monday in giving up only 126 passing yards and no passing scores, even if it was an ugly performance from San Francisco offensively. Hasselbeck has been a popular QB for a while now, but the guy topped out at 26 touchdown tosses in 2003 and has only breached 20 three times in his career (2003-05). Yes, he’s a decent quarterback. No, he isn’t an obvious every-week starter. He’ll be focused on getting Deion Branch involved this week, but I think we’re also going to be seeing a heavy dose of Shaun Alexander.

Actual: 22-36, 281 yards, 1 TD, 1 Fumble Lost

Sneaky Play of the Week

Tarvaris Jackson, MIN @ DET: Sneaky enough for you? Let’s get this straight, there are probably ten QBs I’d start over Tarvaris, but if you’re in a pinch he’s an option on the waiver wire. He’s got a great arm and Troy Williamson is one of the fastest players in football, so they could easily beat the woeful Lions’ defensive backs for a big play or two. It’s an excellent opportunity for Jackson to show what he and his rocket arm can do against a poor defense. If he doesn’t put up a couple of touchdowns here, then you probably can’t start him the rest of this season.

Actual: 17-33, 166 yards, 0 TD, 4 INT, 5 rushes, 16 yards, 1 TD

Dud of the Week

Josh McCown/Daunte Culpepper, OAK @ DEN: Guess who’s second only to Tony Romo in passing yards? That’s right, Mr. McCown, who threw for 313 of ‘em along with 2 TDs against the Lions in Week 1. That, friends, is what you call fool’s gold. If you picked him up, please drop him, and certainly don’t do anything drastic like starting him in Denver.

Actual: 8-16, 73 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT

Reports are now circulating that McCown might be too banged up to play. Daunte would be a dud too. He still doesn’t know the playbook and hasn’t shown us anything since 2004.

Five Strong Running Back Plays

Adrian Peterson, MIN @ DET: He was the breakout running back of Week One and now he gets to travel to the friendly confines of Ford Field. Peterson is a punishing, straight-ahead runner with game-breaking ability and good hands out of the backfield. That’s an extremely rare combination, one the Lions are ill-equipped to deal with. Chester Taylor will also be limited with a hip pointer if he even plays. Start AP with confidence in all leagues.

Actual: 20 carries, 66 yards, 4 catches, 52 yards

Fast Willie Parker, PITT vs. BUF: Fast Willie is a boom or bust player without question. During his exceptional 1,700 total yards, 16-TD campaign last year he totaled 70 yards or less rushing in seven games. The good news is, he was almost always solid at home. In 2006 he averaged 119.1 rushing yards per game at home compared to only 67.6 on the road. The Buffalo rushing defense isn’t anything to worry about, so look for Parker to post a typical boom week.

Actual: 23 carries, 126 yards, 2 catches, 7 yards, 1 TD

Frank Gore, SF @ STL: Gore was bottled up for much of Monday night’s snafu with the Cardinals, but he should find plenty of room to roam against 2006’s 31st-ranked rushing defense. Adam Carriker is a player, but he can’t turn this unit around by himself. With Orlando Pace out the Rams will have difficulty putting up big points, so San Francisco should be able to commit to the run all game. For those of you who took Gore 3rd overall, this is one of the many games to come that should make you feel pretty smart.

Actual: 20 carries, 81 yards, 2 catches, 4 yards, 2 TDS

Brandon Jackson, GB @ NYG: Another Packer makes the matchups because we think this affair is going to be so lopsided. With the Packers’ defense keeping them in the game or ahead for most of the afternoon, Green Bay will be pounding the rock. Jackson has another chance to prove he can be the number 1 after a lackluster effort versus Philly last Sunday, and we like his chances of taking advantage. If he can’t capitalize, this will almost certainly become a committee when Morency returns. Start Jackson as a RB3 in all leagues, but only as a RB2 in situations of need.

Actual: 17 carries, 35 yards, 4 catches, 24 yards

Brian Westbrook, PHI vs. WSH: None of the Redskins linebackers can stay with Westbrook. He averaged 138 total yards versus Washington in 2006 including a 150-yard performance at home. We like his odds of taking a McNabb screen pass to the house.

Actual: 17 carries, 96 yards, 8 catches, 66 yards

Temper Your Expectations

Derrick Ward, NYG vs. GB: He’s filling in for the injured Jacobs, but Ward himself is no lock to stay on the field. He missed all of last season with injuries, and the Green Bay defense is punishing this year. Nick Barnett and AJ Hawk should keep him bottled up for most of the day, especially with Jared ‘Tubby McGoo’ Lorenzen making his first career start and commanding very little attention in the passing game.

Actual: 15 carries, 90 yards, 4 catches, 35 yards

Marshawn Lynch, BUF @ PITT: Lynch had a fine debut and impressed the hell out of us on that bruising TD run. We have a feeling that the Bills will get behind early and be forced to pass for much of the game though. Plus, running in your own stadium and running on the road at Heinz Field are two completely different matters.

Actual: 18 carries, 64 yards, 1 catch, 21 yards

Larry Johnson, KC @ CHI: LJ is still getting his sea legs underneath him at this point after missing all of camp and the preseason with the contract dispute. He’s also the only player this exceptional Chicago defense needs to focus on stopping, so they’ll be loading the box with eight men all day. You likely spent a first-round pick on Johnson and feel compelled to start him, but just give it some consideration if you have two other strong options with good matchups (very unlikely).

Actual: 16 carries, 55 yards, 3 catches, 32 yards

Sneaky Play of the Week

Michael Pittman, TB vs. NO: Pittman has been consistently effective in his career and consistently overlooked. He gets a chance to shine this Sunday versus the 23rd-ranked rushing defense from 2006. Unless something dramatic changes in the next few days, Carnell Williams will be out and Pittman will carry the load on every down. He’s a good receiver out of the backfield (topping 40 receptions six times) and a powerful runner (a YPC above 5.0 over the last two seasons).

Actual: 5 carries, 18 yards, 1 catch, 11 yards

Dud of the Week

Warrick Dunn, ATL @ JAX: Jacksonville is still a very good defense that will stop the run this year, no matter what happened against the Titans. Head coach Bobby Petrino has said that this will be a true timeshare this week with Jerious Norwood getting more involved. We can’t imagine Dunn coming out and doing much that would earn him extensive touches in the second half. Stay away if possible.

Actual: 13 carries, 50 yards, 1 catch, 4 yards, 1 TD

Five Strong Wide Receiver Plays

Donald Driver, GB @ NYG: With the third Packer mention we’re officially hedging our bets, but Driver is the most likely to post a huge fantasy day. He’s the apple of Favre’s eye and, as mentioned above, the Giants secondary is downright awful. This has the feel of an 8-catch, 120 yard, 1-TD game for Driver.

Actual: 8 catches, 73 yards, 1 TD

Deion Branch, SEA @ ARZ: Mike Holmgren took full responsibility for Branch’s 0-fer on Sunday and has promised to get him involved going forward. This is a fine week to start him, even if the Cardinals defense looks pretty decent.

Actual: 7 catches, 122 yards

Randy Moss, NE vs. SD: The San Diego defense is a top-3 unit in the NFL, but Quentin Jammer hasn’t developed into the cover corner he was drafted to be. Playing in front of the New England faithful for the first time, Moss will be eager to ingratiate himself and give maximum effort. And as the years have borne out, a happy and motivated Randy Moss is always a productive Randy Moss. He’s ecstatic right now. I have a gut feeling he scores on one of his patented jump balls from the 5-yard line in addition to catching a few other nice grabs along the sideline.

Actual: 8 receptions, 105 yards, 2 TDs

Santonio Holmes, PITT vs. BUF: When we read that the Steelers were going to spread it out and open it up on offense this year, we were skeptical. Pittsburgh proved they were serious in Week 1 and should find it easy to keep it up at home against Buffalo sans Nate Clements. The biggest beneficiary of this new offense will be Santonio, who is a true deep threat and an intelligent wide receiver. For all of those lucky enough to have snagged him in the middle rounds, you have a great weekly WR3 play until something changes.

Actual: 3 catches, 53 yards

T.J. Houshmandzadeh, CIN vs. CLE: Housh quietly keeps up the strong production week after week, year after year. The mild-mannered T.J. doesn’t get the publicity of his counterpart Chad Johnson, but he’s the finest number WR2 in the NFL this side of Reggie Wayne. A big part of that is never having to match up against the opposing team’s top cornerback. Playing at home against a Cleveland pass defense that doesn’t have much after Leigh Bodden, look for another solid effort.

Actual: 8 catches, 69 yards, 2 TDs

Temper Your Expectations

Plaxico Burress, NYG vs. GB: Oh, the joys of the NFL: the same game that Burress owners celebrate their guy going bonkers for 144 yards and 3 TDs, their party gets pissed on when Manning goes down. And that was after Brandon Jacobs was lost for a minimum of two weeks. The Packers cornerbacks are some of the best in the league and should keep Plax in check. Plus, Jared Lorenzen is now the starting quarterback–do we need to say anything else?

Actual: 2 catches, 32 yards, 1 TD

Braylon Edwards, CLE vs. CIN: The Bengals defense was flying all over the field on Monday and bringing a lot more QB pressure than we’re used to seeing from them. Charlie Frye, Sunday’s starter for 10 passes, has been shipped out of town. It’s now up to the thoroughly uninspiring Derek Anderson to find Edwards in all the chaos while dropping back behind a porous offensive line. We’re not optimistic. Kellen Winslow may be the target of a lot of dump offs, but it’s unlikely Braylon will get the time he needs to operate.

Actual: 8 catches, 146 yards, 2 TDs (!!)

Sneaky Play of the Week

Brandon Marshall, DEN vs. OAK: Yes, the Oakland pass defense finished first in the NFL last season. But after Nnamdi Asomugha their secondary isn’t that special. The 5′11″ Fabian Washington just doesn’t have the size or strength to keep up with Marshall. This kid is 6′4″ tall and 230 pounds with good hands: he can get it done in the red zone. Also, keep in mind how infrequently other teams needed to pass against the Raiders last season. While Javon Walker is an every-week starter, he should be well covered for most of the day by Asomugha. That means Jay Cutler will be looking to his obvious second option early and often.

Actual: 5 catches, 82 yards

Dud of the Week

Antwaan Randle El, WSH @ PHI: Like McCown, we strongly encourage you not to take a bite out of the Randle El cornbread. 5 catches for 162 yards is just sick, but remember that 84 of those came on two plays. To put it into perspective: during his previous five years in the NFL, Randle El has managed one–one–game of over 100 yards receiving, which came in ‘04 against the Giants when he caught 5 passes for 149 yards. That game was followed up by a 3-55 effort, which sounds about right here.

Actual: 4 catches, 44 yards

Five Strong Tight End Plays

Dallas Clark, IND @ TEN: Peyton spreads the ball around and seems concerned with not hurting any of his offensive targets’ feelings, which is a good thing for owners invested to any degree in the Colts. Marvin, Reggie, and Joseph all scored last week: Dallas gets a turn to jump around in the endzone and get his butt slapped against the Titans.

Actual: 7 catches, 69 yards, 1 TD

Jeremy Shockey, NYG vs. GB: The Packers will likely blitz the living hell out of Jared Lorenzen, which means a lot of check-offs and dump passes to Shockey, who will be stomping around and shaking his head and throwing stuff by halftime. Lorenzen will be easily bullied, and will find his recalcitrant teammate for a second-half score.

Actual: 5 catches, 60 yards

Jason Witten, DAL @ MIA: He’s well on his way to establishing himself as one of the top three TE’s in fantasy football this year. Unless Tony Romo and/or Terrell Owens succumb to injury, there’s very little reason he shouldn’t be in your lineup every week. Just in case you missed it, he kicked off the season with 6 catches for 116 yards and 1 TD.

Actual: 2 catches, 27 yards

Chris Cooley, WSH @ PHI: Don’t get down on him just yet after that stinker last week against Miami (1 catch, 10 yards). QB Jason Campbell looks capable back there, and with one week under their belt we fully expect both the ‘Skins and Eagles to post better offensive numbers in this Monday night divisional showdown. He didn’t score against Philly last year, but there’s a good chance he will today.

Actual: 2 catches, 25 yards, 1 TD

Benjamin Watson, NE vs. SD: In evaluating a tight end’s fantasy potential or production, it’s key to pay attention to TD column. Yes, yes, we all want receptions and yardage, but you should be happy if your guy only catches one pass that happens to be in the endzone. Last week, Watson only caught 2 for 9 yards, but one was a TD. He’s got a chance this week, too.

Actual: 5 receptions, 49 yards, 1 TD

Temper Your Expectations

Kellen Winslow, CLE vs. CIN: Winslow looks healthy and like the only real threat on the Browns’, um, “offense.” He posted some good stats last week–4 receptions for 83 yards–but didn’t find the endzone. Unfortunately, “didn’t find the endzone” will be repeated often this year relative to Winslow, Edwards, Lewis, Quinn, etc. Owners have to play him, but don’t shed tears of disappointment if he doesn’t find paydirt again.

Actual: 6 catches, 100 yards, 1 TD

Sneaky Play of the Week

Desmond Clark, CHI vs. KC: Rookie Greg Olsen is the one who was probably drafted, but he’s working through some injury issues and didn’t make any catches against San Diego. Don’t forget that Clark caught 6 TDs last year and averaged about 14/yds per catch. I don’t like starting anyone that relies on Grossman, but, well, you’d be sneaky if you did and Clark scored.

Actual: 4 catches, 29 yards

Dud of the Week

Tony Gonzalez, KC @ CHI: Gonzalez owners are probably already panicking after watching Damon Huard’s “performance” as the starting quarterback against the Texans. The fact is that the Chiefs’ o-line ain’t what it used to be, there’s very little threats on the outside, and Gonzo will be asked to block more than he’d like to. On the road, against the Bears, is not a good time to expect much of anything. He’ll get some dump-offs, but considering where he was drafted, he’s our dud in Week 2.

Actual: 4 catches, 43 yards

Five Strong Team Defense Plays

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Atlanta: If you’re playing week-to-week team defense matchups like I am, you must feel like Homer in Choco Land for the NFL’s upcoming second round of Sunday violence. We’ll bet that at least four of our strong plays here are available on waivers. After getting plowed by a mighty RB named Chris Brown in Week 1, we’re not ready to deem the Jags the top plug-in play, but they’re better than they showed against Tennessee, and they get to face the holy grail of quarterback mediocrity in Joey Harrington. It’s Joey Jo-Jo’s home debut next week, too, which means he’ll not only be up against a solid Carolina pass rush that’ll smell blood in the water, but also a few thousand boo-birds by the end of the first half. Plan ahead.

Actual: 7 points allowed, 7 sacks

New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay: Yes, the same New Orleans Saints defense that was torched by Peyton & Co. on opening night for 164 yards rushing, 288 yards passing, and 41 points. There’s a few reasons we’re recommending them here, not the least of which is their opponent, the Moonball Garcia-led Tampa Bay Bucs, which managed just 284 yards and 2 field goals last week in Seattle. The team’s starting back, Carnell Williams, may or may not be in the lineup–not that that’d necessarily be a bad thing–and the receiving corps doesn’t scare anybody. Garcia can be turnover-prone at times, and he’ll likely be forced to throw for most of the second half with his team playing from behind. This Saints defense isn’t nearly as bad as the mighty Colts O made them look, and we expect a bounceback effort for their home opener.

Actual: 31 points allowed. That’s it.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland: You saw what they did to the Ravens on Monday night: pressure all night on Steve McNair, blitzing damn near every other down, and totaling 4 turnovers, 2 sacks, and 1 TD. You think Marvin Lewis’ game plan for the clueless Browns offense will be any different? Cleveland head coach Romeo Crennel has already hinted that he may go with his third QB in two weeks by starting rookie Brady Quinn–god help whoever is behind center because they are going to get hit.

Actual: 51 points allowed to a Derek Anderson-led offense, 0 sacks, 1 INT,

Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants: The Pack have quietly built a well-balanced defense that will make them contenders in the wide-open, but increasingly competitive, NFC North. You’re going to hear a lot about the GB defensive line as the season wears on; their depth is so solid that first-round draft pick Justin Harrell wasn’t even activated for last week’s game against Philly. Linebackers Nick Barnett and AJ Hawk are flat-out tackle machines. The Giants start Jared Lorenzen at QB and Derrick Ward at RB this week due to injuries–fun fun in NYC!

Actual: 13 points allowed, 2 sacks, 1 INT, 1 Fumble Recovery

Denver Broncos vs. Oakland: Our Denver pick in this column wasn’t the best last week, but we’re giving them another chance at home against the Raiders, who only managed 3 points last year in their visit to Mile High Stadium in “racking up” 274 total yards. There’s no way Ronald Curry or Jerry Porter will get open against Champ Bailey and Dre Bly, and we see at least three turnovers for Josh McCown & Co.

Actual: 20 points allowed, 3 sacks, 3 INTs

Temper Your Expectations

San Diego Chargers @ New England: They’re led by a very, very scary man named Shawne Merriman, and they absolutely terrorized the Bears last week in their home opener. Without question, they’re one of the few every-week elite team D’s in the NFL. Still, this week they’re on the road in New England against an offense that casually put up 431 total yards and 32 points (38 including Ellis Hobbs’ record-setting 108-yard kickoff return) against the Jets. The Bolts are obviously more competitive than the Jets, but this is just a tough matchup for any defense. Randy Moss is going to be a difficult cover for SD’s secondary.

Actual: 38 points allowed, 2 sacks, 1 INT

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit: The Vikings defense was the league’s best at stopping the run last year, but we had some doubts about the linebackers and secondary coming into the ‘07 season. If last week’s mauling of the Falcons is any indication, those fears can be laid to rest. This week they travel to Detroit for a big early-season NFC Norse Division clash, facing a team that put up 38 points and nearly 400 yards against a good Raiders defense. But here’s the real reason to think twice about starting the Vikes: WR Roy Williams says not to: “Oh, you obviously bench ‘em. If I would’ve had the Raiders’ defense, they definitely would’ve been on the bench, for me. Anytime we play someone, I think they should go on the bench.”

Actual: 20 points allowed, 4 sacks, 3 INTs, 2 Fumble Recoveries, 1 TD

Sneaky Play of the Week

Kansas City Chiefs @ Chicago: They aren’t a particularly strong unit and didn’t show much against the Texans last week… but they’re playing the Bears. Isn’t it a rule that Rex Grossman turn the ball over at least twice?

Actual: 20 points allowed, 3 sacks, 2 INTs, 1 Fumble Recovery

Dud of the Week

Miami Dolphins vs. Dallas: The ‘Fins were solid against the Redskins on the road, allowing 16 points with 2 sacks and 2 picks, but we’re not psyched about them this week against the Dallas Cowboys, who shat all over the Giants porous defense Sunday night for almost 500 total yards and 45 points. Romo is always an INT threat, but why bother with Miami when most of the D’s listed above are available?

Actual: 37 points allowed, 1 sack

*Disclaimer: Regardless of week-to-week matchups, there are players who should be in your starting lineup every week. You know who they are. Sometimes we’ll list these guys, sometimes we won’t. To make things easy, however, we have picked some players at each position who will never be listed in our Top Matchups– they’re studs and are always must starts. They are: QB Peyton Manning, QB Carson Palmer, RB LaDainian Tomlinson, RB Steven Jackson, RB Larry Johnson, WR Chad Johnson, WR Stevonne Smith, TE Antonio Gates, DEF Chicago and DEF Baltimore.