Empty the Bench

Playing fantasy sports and playing the stock market have a lot in common. In both, you’re always trying to buy low and sell high. The smart man needs to keep his finger on the pulse of the market. You never want to pay market value or above, and getting in on the ground floor with an emerging player can absolutely make your portfolio. Everybody is searching for that penny stock that could explode. With that philosophy in mind, ETB sorts through the recent results and takes a look at a few of the players who have seen the biggest gains and losses in their value over the last week.

Big Gainers:

Travis Henry, RB, Denver Broncos: It’s always a nerve-racking experience to roll with a Denver back as your RB1 and put yourself at the mercy of Mike Shenanigan’s whims, sort of like turning on a new episode of The Simpsons and hoping it captures the glory of seasons 3 – 9. But though Henry owners were sweating about another no-name rookie–Selvin Young–following in the footsteps of Mike Anderson, Rueben Droughns, Ron Dayne, Mike Bell, etc and stealing carries from the premier guy, the new Bronco quickly laid those worries to rest with a fantastic Week 1 performance. 23 carries and 3 receptions for 183 combined yards is a strong debut (we sort of called it, projecting 26 carries, 125 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns). Don’t worry about the touchdowns, they’ll come. There’s some tough matchups on his schedule, but at least you now know that Henry is “the guy” when healthy.

Nate Burleson, WR, Seattle Seahawks: Brian is more skeptical, but as a Viqueens fan I’ve seen Nate Burleson make some impressive plays before he signed with the ‘Hawks last year. He doesn’t possess the pure physical tools of many starting NFL wideouts, but he’s sure-handed, goes over the middle well and excels in yards after the catch. He’s also got a nice stiff arm. While the Seahawks don’t think incumbent D.J. Hackett has a season-ending injury, they admit he’s going to be out a while with the dreaded high-ankle sprain. In other words, Hackett is out indefinitely. Seattle has a fantasy-friendly offense and a nice schedule, so those in need of a WR4 could do a lot worse right now.

Eric Johnson, TE, New Orleans Saints: Those in Point Per Reception leagues, take notice. Reggie Bush, Drew Brees, Marques Colston, etc owners were busy furrowing their brows and shouting at John Madden to just SHUT UP ABOUT CHICKEN FRIED after the Saints’ putrid opening night performance in Indianapolis. Meanwhile, those who took an early flyer on the team’s new starting TE were wondering if they hadn’t found a reliable backup or even starter on their fantasy squad.

The Saints won’t be dinking and dunking and flailing about much like they were last Thursday, but at the very least we learned that Brees has no qualms about dumping it off to Johnson when necessary. The five-year vet finished with 8 catches for 57 yards on the night; if a TD was in there too, that’d be a very strong output at the TE spot on any fantasy roster. Two years ago, Johnson caught 82 balls for 825 yards and 2 TDs; he’s clearly capable, especially with very few sure bets at TE. Drew Brees also has a history of using his tight end often (Antonio Gates), so this performance doesn’t look like a total fluke. Give it some time, though: the Saints offense certainly needs it.

Derrick Ward, RB, New York Giants: As we mentioned in Monday’s Hangover, Derrick Ward is a RB worth adding in nearly every league. The third-year back who played college ball at Ottawa–yes, Ottawa–finished with 13 rushing attempts for 89 yards (6.8 YPC) and 4 receptions for 28 yards, including a crucial 9-yard touchdown. Don’t expect him to repeat last night’s heroics, but the starting RB in New York is a valuable commodity, especially now that the team seems committed to using Rueben Droughns as a FB. You also have to believe the team will be very intent on establishing the running game while Eli Manning (below) is out and the league’s fattest quarterback, Jared Lorenzen, is in.

Jason Avant, WR, Philadelphia Eagles: We recommended adding Jason Avant to your watch list earlier this week and he made us look good on Sunday (3 receptions, 54 yards, 1 TD). He’s clearly the third receiver on this team behind Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis, so there is an obvious ceiling while they’re healthy. We still don’t recommend an add in all but the deepest leagues, but have him on speed dial in case Curtis or Brown goes down: this team is going to be passing 60+% of the time again.

Kevin Jones, RB, Detroit Lions: How can we list a guy who wasn’t even active in Week 1 as a Big Gainer? Well, in last week’s Stock Report we downgraded KJ after early reports that he’d be added to the team’s PUP list. Then it came out that MLive’s normally reliable Tom Kowalski violated one of the first rules of journalism in releasing a premature report; it turns out KJ is not on the PUP list, and could be ready for action as early as September 23 at Philadelphia.

While we don’t expect him to be in peak football shape and putting up big stats as soon as he’s in the lineup, we do think he’ll be the featured back in Detroit’s potent offense. Now is a good time to start trolling for him with some low-ball offers; the fantasy football world is full of impatient owners. KJ will be a stud flex play by Week 7 at the latest. This is the stock report, and KJ is a penny stock ready to explode in the next month or so.

Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall, QB and WR, Denver Broncos: Both of these kids looked good on Sunday, and the Broncos offense should be potent for years to come. Cutler didn’t have a massive fantasy day, but he did put up 304 yards and a score. The second-year signal caller also played like a cagey vet during the last drive of the game, completing several big passes and converting a 4th and 2 with 1:31 remaining on a 7-yard scramble. He’s got one of the best arms in football already, has a terrific supporting cast, a go-to WR in Javon Walker, and could emerge as a borderline QB1 as the season wears on.

Meanwhile, fellow youngster Brandon Marshall was extremely crisp. He caught 5 passes for 52 yards and was the recipient of Cutler’s lone TD toss. The guy teammates call Baby TO was a favorite sleeper WR of ours, and it looks like he’s going to make a push for WR3 status in fantasy leagues before the season is out.

Big Losers:

The St. Louis Rams Offense: Ouch–starting all-world left tackle Orlando Pace is indeed done for the year after tearing his labrum and rotator cuff in his right shoulder, which means the Rams offense could be in for a world of hurt. The Halo Effect is in full force here–Steven Jackson will find it more difficult running to the left side, Marc Bulger’s blind-side pass protection will suffer greatly, and Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, and Drew Bennett will have less time to get open on those deep routes they so excel at. They don’t get the press, but for strong offensive teams the left tackle is often a franchise player.

Maybe the offensive line will recover–we don’t yet know who’ll be stepping in as Pace’s replacement, but youngster and 2005 first-round pick Alex Barron is likely sliding in with Milford Brown taking over at RT–but if this all makes you uncomfortable, it’s a great time to sell high for Jackson and Holt, especially. Don’t panic and go selling for pennies on the dollar, but if you can get equal value in return for St. Louis skill players you need to consider it. Would you take Joseph Addai straight up for Jackson? I’d certainly think about it.

Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants: This is a downgrade, but it’s not a total loss for Manning owners. NFL.com is reporting that Eli Manning has a separated shoulder, but it’s not considered serious at this point and he could return as early as September 30th. That’s good news because any shoulder injury is a major long-term concern for a quarterback. Eli also displayed impressive accuracy (68.3% completions) and poise on Sunday night, while his rapport with big target and deep threat Plaxico Burress continues to improve.

If Brandon Jacobs misses more than three weeks, which seems at least possible, then the Giants are going to rely heavily on the passing game. Hopefully not many of you went into the season counting on Manning as your starter, so his performance solidifies him as one of the best backups out there when he returns. That may be the most kind ETB paragraph you read on Eli this year, Giants fans.

Dwayne Jarrett, WR, Carolina Panthers: The rookie that essentially pushed Keyshawn Johnson–who is now stationed next to the awkward Emmitt Smith on ESPN’s Sunday pregame show–into retirement was inactive for the team’s road game in St. Louis. That’s not a good sign, as it’s not like he’s competing with WR world-beaters in Drew Carter and Keary Colbert for the honor of watching Stevonne Smith catch passes. Rookies at his position often struggle early on; there’s no use in hanging onto him at this point. Drop him and look elsewhere.

Jamal Lewis, RB, Cleveland Browns: That stench slowly seeping its way across the country is emanating from Cleveland, where QB Charlie Frye was the team’s starter for about a beer (10 attempts) and Lewis has t-minus 15 weeks left of being a featured back in the NFL. If it wasn’t for a total lack of depth behind him (fourth-year nobody Jason Wright and second-year never-will-be Jerome Harrison), he’d likely be shown a spot on the bench before the season is halfway over. It’s certainly not all his fault, but he’s in steady decline (3.5 YPC the last two seasons) and his performance at home against the Steelers on Sunday (11 carries, 35 yards) could be repeated many times this season with no passing game to keep defenses honest.

Brandon Jacobs, RB, New York Giants: Ugh. What else can we say? After hyping this kid all offseason, he comes out and sprains a knee after just 6 totes. According to the folks at NFL.com, he’s out 3-5 weeks and is currently considered week-to-week. Let’s take a positive spin: this could have been a lot worse. Those who knocked Jacobs for his upright running style and height, and suggested the combination would make him susceptible to injury, are feeling pretty smart right now.

The play looked more like a freak occurrence though and not the result of his stature. Based on the MRI results, Jacobs should return in three weeks rather than five. Still, he’s going to lose at least 1/4 of his season already and when he comes back Eli Manning (above) might not be behind center. As always, one man’s loss is another man’s gain: I’m making insulting offers for Jacobs in leagues I don’t own him in, fully expecting him to be a major factor down the stretch and in the fantasy playoffs.

Chad Pennington, QB, New York Jets: We’re sure Mr. Pennington would be happy to know that after he grotesquely twisted his ankle and limped off the field like a wounded animal (honestly, it was depressing to watch) that 90% of the Jets’ fans at the Call Box Lounge cheered. It’s a Jets bar. Yep, we’re not the only ones who’d rather see Kellen Clemens behind center.

Statistically, Pennington wasn’t dreadful, going 16-21 for 167 yards and 2 TDs against a swarming Patriots defense, but those two touchdown passes were short lobs to Laveranues Coles, who did all the hard work on both plays. Chad is going to take some big hits this season, and won’t give fantasy owners much to cheer about in the coming weeks against Baltimore, Miami, or Buffalo. Drop this dead weight–he’ll be outta there by the team’s Week 10 bye, at the latest. As we keep saying, ETB wants nothing to do with any Jet not named Laveranues.

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars: If you’re chasing last year’s stats and spent a second-round pick on MJD, you’re going to be sorely disappointed this season. The 5-7 bowling ball–along with his backfield mate Fred Taylor–underwhelmed against the Titans, going for 60 combined yards with a fumble. He’s a great flex play, but if you own him you didn’t draft him as a RB3. That’s a shame. Right now we wouldn’t be confident with him as our RB2. (ETB admission: we hate MJD. Maybe it’s the incessant hype or the absurdly high average draft position, who knows. We just do.)

Bill Belichick, Coach, New England Patriots: His team is a winner, but for robbing fantasy owners of a Laurence Maroney touchdown by giving Heath Evans the one-yard plunge, Belichick proves that he’s still a big, poorly dressed loser for fantasy owners. While it was undeniable that Maroney appeared to tire as the game wore on, giving 11 carries to Sammy Morris wasn’t cool either. Unfortunately, I’m sure there’s plenty of more this to come in New England. Bill just thinks he’s too cute and loves to throw it in the face of fantasy owners. He and Mike Shenanigans deserve each other.

Carnell Williams, RB, Tamps Bay Bucs: People, his name is Carnell. He lost the privilege of going by a nickname after last season’s 225-carry, 798-yard, 3.5-YPC, 1-TD season. The Bucs offense is a disaster zone, and Joey Galloway is the only guy you can start with any confidence on this unit. Forget the publicity and hype of 2005, Williams is a RB3 right now, and not a very exciting one at that. To make matters worse he’s at least bruised his ribs and in all likelihood will miss next week. The best case scenario has him returning for Week Three, but there’s speculation Williams has broken ribs, which would put him on the shelf for 4-6 weeks. The wheels have come off, move on with other options until further notice.

Deion Branch, WR, Seattle Seahawks: This should have been a coming out party for Branch as Seattle’s clear No. 1 WR. Instead, he went out there and stunk the joint up. 0 receptions for 0 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 fantasy points. You have to wonder if he has any chemistry whatsoever with Hasselbeck at this point: the guy couldn’t find him once all day? All the more reason to take a flier on Burleson (above). Trust me, he has the skills to overtake the overrated Branch statistically. I think it’s extremely unlikely that will happen, but if it’s even a possibility you need to take it under consideration in this crazy game.

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