Empty The Bench
- The Season's Over -

ETB’s Week One NFL Sunday Hangover

September 10, 2007

Holmes looks like a potential fantasy stud

- New England looked like the Super Bowl contenders that they are, and Randy Moss came up huge. Tom Brady has to be a happy man right now as his new receiving corps of Moss and Wes Welker looked great (though Donte’ Stallworth was largely MIA). Welker is worth an add as a WR5 in most leagues as he seems to have an excellent rapport with Brady. Bill Belichick is still an incredibly obnoxious presence in fantasy football, giving away what should have been Laurence Maroney’s TD to Heath Evans.

- Brandon Jacobs, we hardly knew ye. After ETB hyped Jacobs up all offseason, he promptly went out and sprained his knee in the first half after toting the ball just 6 times for 26 yards. He’s set to get an MRI today and we should know something this afternoon. Meanwhile, Derrick Ward filled in admirably, finishing with 13 rushing attempts for 89 yards (6.8 YPC) and 4 receptions for 28 yards, including a crucial 9-yard touchdown with 7:20 left to play that kept the Giants’ hopes alive. He should be added in most leagues, and he’s an especially strong pickup for Brandon Jacobs owners. Do it now, though: Ward has been added in some 30,000 Yahoo! leagues already since last night.

-Santonio Holmes is looking more and more like a potential star in this league. He just burned the Cleveland secondary on that 40-yard score, but he showed an ability to get open on several other occassions despite finishing with just two receptions. This one was over early, so expect Holmes to amp up the production in games that aren’t total laughers.

- The Denver/Buffalo game was a nail biter, coming down to the last three seconds. The big story here: Marshawn Lynch could be a stud. He willed himself into the endzone on that touchdown. Lynch finished with 19 rushes for 90 yards, 2 receptions for 9 and a TD. He’s a great RB3 now and has the potential to emerge as a strong RB2 this season.

- Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson is going to be a star. A lot of rookie RBs tend to dance a little too much instead of hitting the hole, but Peterson showed hardly any hesitation in his debut when given the ball. And how about the concentration on that swing pass he turned into a 60-yard TD? No telling just yet if Chester Taylor will be back next week against Detroit, but either way, Peterson is a must-start until further notice.

- The third rookie stud to make a splash in his NFL debut was the Lions’ Calvin Johnson, who looks to have the size, talent, and work ethic to be one of the NFL’s next truly great wide receivers. The second-overall pick in April’s draft wasn’t phased by the Raiders’ solid secondary, catching 4 balls for 70 yards and a TD in the Lions’ 36-21 win. Said teammate Roy Williams, who also snagged a TD catch, about Johnson’s lunge into the endzone: “He’s a big human being. That’s why we call him Megatron.” Megatron: we like it.

Strong candidate for ROY honors already

- While ESPN’s “fantasy expert” Matt Berry froths at the mouth in commanding fantasy owners to pick up Raiders WR Ronald Curry after his 10 receptions, 133 yards, and 1 TD effort against the Detroit Lions, we counter with caution. While Curry has sneaky talent and could (finally) blossom this season, his overchieving numbers this week were against what could be one of the league’s worst secondaries in ’07. Plus, there’s no telling how long Josh McCown will be the starter in Oakland. What happens if Culpepper or still-unsigned JaMarcus Russell takes over? Will they exhibit the same kind of chemistry with Curry?

This situation bears watching, but we’re not ready to invest in a guy who’s still technically a WR2 on a poor offensive team with tons o’ question marks. Owners in deep leagues with shit else on waivers should certainly scoop him up if he’s still available, but don’t go dropping a, say, Mike Furrey or Demetrius Williams to get him.

- Unfortunately for loyal ETB reader and commenter Judd, after Lions’ QB Jon Kitna passed for 289 yards with 3 TDs (and 2 INTs) we don’t think he earned his promised “wipe down” and certainly not a “sea hammock.” We’ll call it even, though, since he did predict two Kitna picks.

- A shout out: If you’re in Brooklyn looking to catch Sunday’s NFL action, do it at the Call Box Lounge. Cheap pitchers, barbecue, and one of the most colorful characters in the city running the whole show. You can’t beat it.

- Now in his third season out of UCLA, Carolina’s Drew Carter hauled in 2 TDs Sunday afternoon as the team’s WR2. Fluke? Well, it’s hard to say: St. Louis doesn’t have a great defense, and we’ve seen guys like Frisman Jackson fool tons of fantasy owners with similar efforts on opening day, only to quickly fade into obscurity thereafter. Still, that rookie WR Dwayne Jarrett–who most thought would assume starting duties opposite Stevonne Smith–was inactive is a sign that he’s way behind Carter and even Keary Colbert in terms of grasping the offensive scheme.

Smith is bound to draw double teams, so Carter could find himself getting more looks and touches than his limited upside deserves. Take a flyer on him in deep leagues, but don’t plug him into your lineup just yet. He won’t notch a 2 TD game the rest of the season.

- Gutty win for the Packers at home Sunday afternoon, but that Brett Favre-led offense is clearly out of sync with so many new faces on the field, and Favre himself was as wild as ever–sometimes a good thing, sometimes not. Andrew and I both agreed that if rookie RB Brandon Jackson had a strong showing in his debut, currently injured backup Vernand Morency would find it much harder to get carries when he comes back.

Unfortunately for Jackson owners, his 15 carries and 5 catches for 75 combined yards wasn’t exactly spectacular. After the NY Giants, next week, Green Bay faces three extraordinarily tough rush defenses (San Diego, Minnesota, Chicago), which could mean any significant fantasy returns from the rook will have to wait.

- Terrell Owens, one of the NFL’s premier primetime players of all time.

- NY Giants head coach Tom Coughlin has the look of Michigan Wolverines’ coach Lloyd Carr: dead man walking. No future, no job security, no reason either should still be on the sidelines.

Still the best TE in the NFL by far

- Did the San Diego pass rush make Rex Grossman look bad (12 of 23 for 145 yards, 1 INT, 0 TD, 3 sacks), or did Rex make himself look bad? It was a team effort, both did their part, but San Diego was getting great penetration all day and looks like a team that can apply pressure from both sides of the line at will. Philip Rivers and LaDainian Tomlinson will have better days, and this might be the team to beat in the AFC. Meanwhile, the Bears defense looked strong but an offense led by Grossman and Cedric Benson (19 carries, 42 yards, 2.2 YPC, 1 reception for 11 yards, 1 fumble lost) might not cut it. Benson looked sluggish all day, and doesn’t seem to have as much burst as backup Adrian Peterson, who also fumbled it away.

- If you’re playing week-to-week matchups after following ETB’s advice to not invest heavily on a team defense on draft day, early indications say that Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Oakland, Chicago, Miami, and Kansas City are the offenses to exploit. But leading the pack is the Atlanta Falcons, who are going absolutely nowhere with Joey Harrington at the helm. He’s a fine, serviceable backup, but he’s no starter in the NFL; unfortunately, with only Chris Redman behind him, the team doesn’t have much choice but to stick with him. Ugh. Play the Jacksonville D with confidence in Week 2.

- We’re dying to see Cowboys running back Marion Barber III in a featured, exclusive role. Julius Jones is a fine back with a lot of talent, but Barber is a monster.

- Finally, we’ll give some props to Titans running back Chris Brown for coming out of nowhere to rush for 175 yards on an absolutely ridiculous 9.2 YPC against what was thought to be a tough Jaguars’ run defense. We’ve seen this from Brown before though, and he’s never managed to put together a full, healthy season. Andrew is bullish on the Titans backfield, and is confident that whomever establishes himself as the starter will be very valuable as a flex play on most fantasy teams. Brown’s competition, second-year fattie LenDale White, ran 18 times for 66 yards; neither found the endzone. I’m steering clear of that whole situation, as I can’t see either guy becoming the clear-cut featured back anytime soon, and head coach Jeff Fisher will be playing it by ear and going with the hot hand.

Possibly Related Content:

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  2. ETB’s Week Three NFL Sunday Hangover

  3. ETB’s Week Nine NFL Hangover

  4. ETB’s NFL Week 11 Hangover

  5. ETB’s NFL Week 12 Hangover

3 Comments »Posted by Andrew Thell and Brian Spencer on Sep. 10, 2007 at 9:44 am in NFL, NFL Fantasy News

3 Responses

Great wrap.

I will ask that we tap the breaks on putting MB III in the “exclusive role”. He had that opportunity last year and it did not work. I think what makes him so great is that he stays fresh and makes the absolute MOST out of every carry. It’s like a beast let out of a cage when he is put on the field. However, when he is the starter he tends to relax and let the ‘locks hang.

One more touch… I wanted to give your ETB team, and the player himself, credit for what was laid down on Sunday. You predicted Andre Johnson coming out early and being a great FF play this week. It happened, to the beat of a 7 catch, 142 yd, 1 Touchdown day. Hats off to ETB and Aun-dray. I see plenty more of this guy getting his.

Cowboys Homer for Life.
Romo + T.O. = Magnificent
Where’s the love for Witten?

Posted by: Judd on September 10th, 2007 at 10:39 am

Thanks for the kind words Judd-

You have to be feeling good about your squad right now, or at least the offense. I will admit that I’m not a Tony Romo believer yet, but he looked pretty sharp. And I’m also slightly biased on the subject of ex-Gopher and fellow Minnesotan Marion Barber III, but I would love to see him in there on first and second down more often. I think he’s as talented as JJ and a stronger runner who would wear defenses down more than Jones does. But they’re a great one-two punch either way.

I’m also a big Jason Witten fan, but I was a little nervous that Crayton would be cutting into his looks over the middle. He’s certainly one of the most talented and pure TEs in the NFL, I think he’s a better football player than Todd Heap or Jeremy Shockey. Witten looked much better with Romo last year than he did with Bledsoe, so we could be looking at a return to 2004 stats (87 receptions, 980 yards, 6 TDs). That would easily make him a top-3 TE.

Posted by: Andrew on September 10th, 2007 at 1:11 pm

I had secretly hoped that Randy Moss might be done in the NFL, but unfortunately the change of scenery seems to have done him a lot of good. Watch out for the Pats this season.

Posted by: kevin on September 10th, 2007 at 7:47 pm

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