Empty the Bench

Thank God the preseason is over. I mean, thank God. Every year it seems to drag a little longer, be a little more inconsequential and one of my players always seems to go down (Thanks, Mr. Driver). At the very least, this preseason saw very few significant injuries and nearly all of the important position battles have been settled heading into week one, and that’s all we can really ask for. Now the real fun begins, and we’re as excited for Thursday as Larry Craig in a Chi-Chi’s stall. Finally the NFL got it right (Pittsburgh versus Miami?), pitting two of the most exciting teams and highest-scoring offenses against each other in a simulation of the Super Bowl we all wanted to see last season.

The fact that some combination of Peyton Manning and Joseph Addai/Marvin Harrison/Reggie Wayne or Drew Brees and Reggie Bush/Marques Colston/Deuce McAllister should be touching the ball on nearly every play makes this one of the most fantasy-relevant contests of the season. With any luck, the fireworks should easily match those of 2002’s kickoff event that featured the cast of Broadway musical Rent with Joey “Fat One” Fatone of NSYNC. That was a night to remember.

So now that the regular season is finally here, it’s time to get into the nitty and the gritty of weekly fantasy football: who to start, who to bench and who to add for a spot start. Every week for the 2007 NFL season, ETB will break down a few key fantasy matchups at Quarterback, Wide Receiver, Running Back, Tight End, and Team Defense. For each roster spot we’ll lay out our Five Strong Plays, two players you need to Temper Your Expectations for, one Sneaky Play of the Week and one Dud of the Week. Note that these are not the five players we predict to score the most points or the least points: there will always be obvious situations and choices we don’t mention. These also aren’t all sneaky plays. These are just the matchups that we feel warrant mention*. As always, feel free to post your take or critique for any of the picks in the comments section.

Make sure to check back on these articles the following week, as we’ll be updating how each player listed below actually performed. That way you can either bow at the ETB altar or laugh at our incompetence.

Good luck, and good hunting.

Five Strong Quarterback Plays

Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints: The Colts’ defense wasn’t very good last year–save for their improbable postseason performance–and it will be even worse in ‘07 after the loss of several key veterans in the secondary. Expect the defensive regression to begin with Brees launching an aerial assault that should include at least two scores and 275 yards. Start him in every league.

Actual: Yuck: 28-41, 192 yards, 2 INTs, 1 Fumble Lost, and he didn’t throw the ball past the first-down marker until garbage time.

Tom Brady, New England Patriots: It’ll only take one week for the Jets to realize they don’t measure up whatsoever to the Pats, as Brady exploits talented rookie Darrelle Revis in his first professional game and leads his team to a nice offensive explosion. Randy Moss always shows up in prime time and will benefit from at least one Brady TD pass–book it.

Actual: 22-28, 297 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs.

Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles: Don’t worry that it’s McNabb’s first regular-season game since the season-ending injury last year. The Pro Bowl QB has looked sharp in the preseason and could post top-three fantasy stats amongst QBs this week in what looks to be a high-scoring affair over in Green Bay.

Actual: 15-33, 184 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 9 yards rushing.

Brett Favre, Green Bay Packers: It’s hard to recommend plugging in Favre after those interception-riddled efforts in ‘05 and ‘06, but we like him to at least start the season strong at home with 250+ yards passing and 2 or 3 TDs against a questionable Eagles secondary. That’s assuming Driver is good to go, so keep an eye on his status as Sunday approaches.

Actual: 23-42, 206 yards, O TDs, 1 INT.

Jon Kitna, Detroit Lions: The Raiders have a fantastic defense and one of the league’s better unknown corners in Nnamdi Asomugha, but Kitna should get his with Detroit abandoning the running game early in the day. Picks and fumbles are a concern, but Kitna will throw the ball at least 40 times and find the endzone on two or three of those passes.

Actual: 27-36, 289 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs.

Temper Your Expectations

Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers: Quite a few of you will go into the season with Rivers penciled in as your every-week starter, and that should work out okay on most weeks. We’re fans at ETB, but he’s still inexperienced and Chicago is a savvy defense. Look for San Diego to ride LT much of the day. In the home opener don’t expect more than 175-200 yards and a TD. Anything over that is gravy.

Actual: 22-31, 190 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 1 Fumble Lost.

Eli Manning, New York Giants: It’s Eli’s make-it-or-break-it season, and poor him, it starts on the road in Dallas. He’ll face consistent pressure all day, and Lil’ Eli doesn’t respond very well to pressure. Our crystal ball says 240 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 – 3 INTs. Not awful, but not very good either. The real reason to watch the Giants this year is Brandon Jacobs.

Actual: 28-41, 312 yards, 4 TDs, 1 INT.

Sneaky Play of the Week

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers: He’s not a viable fantasy starter most weeks at this point in his career, but Big Ben is very capable of at least resembling one on good days. The Steelers tend to rough up the Cleveland defense and Roethlisberger should throw for 250 yards and 1 – 2 TDs as a result. He’s unlikely to explode, but he will be solid.

Actual: 12-23, 161 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs.

Dud of the Week

Jeff Garcia, Tampa Bay Bucs: Tampa’s depth chart at wide receiver is loaded with has-beens (Joey Galloway, David Boston, Ike Hilliard), busts (Michael Clayton), and never-will-be’s (Maurice Stovall, Mark Jones). That doesn’t bode well for a no-longer-mobile veteran QB who overachieved last year in Philly and will post poor numbers on the road in Seattle. Don’t get cute this early in the fantasy season–Garcia should not be in your starting lineup.

Actual: 19-27, 201 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs.

Five Strong Running Back Plays

Reggie Bush, New Orleans Saints: We can easily see both teams scoring in the 30’s this Thursday, and owners in PPR leagues will be especially pleased with their likely first-round pick’s overall performance in the season opener. He’ll score at least once and should catch around 6 or 7 passes. Expect 145+ yards combined, too.

Actual: Double yuck: 12 carries for 38 yards, 4 catches for 7 yards

Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts: See Reggie Bush, Drew Brees, Reggie Wayne, etc. Addai won’t be coming off the field much this year with little to no depth behind him–we barely knew ye, DeDe Dorsey–and will show why there’s so much faith in him among the Indianapolis brass. He starts ‘07 with a big effort at home. Andrew was willing to draft this guy as high as fourth overall.

Actual: 23 carries for 118 yards, 3 catches for 25 yards, 1 TD

Shaun Alexander, Seattle Seahawks: Few lean on their starting back like head coach Mike Holmgren, who will immediately look to re-establish his running game after last year’s middling attack. Alexander will happily oblige to 25+ carries in his quest to also prove last season was merely an abomination and that his broken foot is a distant memory. Two TDs are certainly possible against a Tampa defense that just isn’t that good.

Actual: 27 carries for 105 yards, 2 catches for 12 yards, 1 TD

Willis McGahee, Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens are going to pound McGahee into the ground as long as possible in ‘07, and will get things started on the right foot by feeding their new featured back at least 25 times against the weak Cincinnati defense.

Actual: 19 carries for 77 yards, 3 catches for 34 yards, 0 TD

Brandon Jackson, Green Bay Packers: He’ll be fully recovered from that mild concussion, playing at home in front of a pumped-up crowd, and getting 80 – 90% of the carries in his NFL debut with Morency hobbled. It also helps that he’ll be facing last year’s 26th-ranked rush defense. BJax is going over 125 yards combined and will score at least once today, either on the ground or on a pass. We’re psyched about this kid and can’t wait to see how well he does in receptions.

Actual: 15 carries for 40 yards, 4 catches for 35 yards, 0 TD

Temper Your Expectations

Larry Johnson, KC Chiefs: There seems to be two camps developing in regards to LJ: those who think any talk of him wearing down is foolish, and those who think he’s headed for a fall. Regardless, Johnson missed most of training camp as a holdout and will need a week or two to get into game shape and really find his groove. This offense is going to stink overall, and Houston’s D should take a step up this season.

Actual: 10 carries for 43 yards, 7 catches for 44 yards, 0 TD

Edgerrin James, Arizona Cardinals: We keep hearing about how the Edge is back and how new head coach Ken Whisenhunt will be turning this into a run-first team. That’s all fine, but the 49ers defense is much improved and we’re not convinced the Cards’ o-line is ready just yet to consistently control the line of scrimmage. We refuse to forget about James’ paltry 3.4 YPC last season, or his 6 total TDs. James is a decent start, but no home run by any means.

Actual: 26 carries for 92 yards, 2 catches for 20 yards, 1 TD

Sneaky Play of the Week

LaMont Jordan, Oakland Raiders: While the woeful Detroit Lions’ secondary will be an area to heavily exploit all season long, don’t be afraid to plug in running backs with at least a modicum of talent and a decent offensive line, either. And don’t forget that Jordan caught 70 passes in 2005. This is his chance to prove he’s the starter and Rhodes is his backup. The Raiders should ride Jordan early and often while he’s healthy, and we think he’ll find paydirt at least once in Week 1.

Actual: 15 carries for 70 yards, 9 catches for 89 yards, 1 TD

Dud of the Week

Jamal Lewis, Baltimore Ravens: Some feel like Lewis is due for a bounceback year after moving from Baltimore to Cleveland, but with Charlie Frye (or Brady Quinn, or Derek Andeson) behind center, opposing defenses are going to put seven or eight men in the box and dare the QB to beat them. Lewis won’t score this week unless it’s a one-yard plunge, and he won’t post great yardage totals either.

Actual: 11 carries for 35 yards, 2 catches for 11 yards, 0 TD

Five Strong Wide Receiver Plays

Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts: Someone is going to be the recipient of the 2-4 TD passes from Manning, and Wayne is a strong bet to catch one or two of ‘em. We’re firm believers that this is the year he finally surpasses Marvin H’s production, and though the Saints secondary is a pretty good one, he’ll have his way during the home opener.

Actual: 7 catches for 115 yards, 2 TDs, 1 Fumble Lost

Terrell Owens, Dallas Cowboys: It’s opening night, it’s in Dallas, and divisional rival NY Giants (and their piss-poor secondary) are in town–don’t think for one second T.O. won’t go off on such an occasion. In fact, we wouldn’t be surprised if this ends up as one of Owens’ most productive games of the season.

Actual: 3 catches for 87 yards, 2 TDs

Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals: Fitz gets the nod over his Pro Bowl running mate Anquan Boldin only because he scores more often. Both should have fine nights, though this San Francisco defense is no longer the pushover it once was… at least we don’t think it will be. Pencil him in for 110 yards and a score.

Actual: 3 catches for 20 yards, 0 TDs

Roy Williams, Detroit Lions: Despite being an awful team, the Raiders’ secondary is actually quite respectable, allowing their opponents a league low 150.8 yards/game last season. Doesn’t matter–the Lions’ aerial attack could be awesome, and Williams is the lynch pin. 8 catches, 135 yards, and 1 TD.

Actual: 4 catches for 20 yards, 1 TD

Andre Johnson, Houston Texans: Matt Schaub’s first start behind center in Houston, and he’ll make sure his top guy gets plenty of looks and touches to get things going on the right foot. This one could end up a battle of field goals, but there’s no reason not to expect 7 catches, 110 yards, and a possible score from Johnson.

Actual: 7 catches for 142 yards, 1 TD, 1 Fumble Lost

Temper Your Expectations

Lee Evans, Buffalo Bills: J.P. Losman’s top target emerged in a big way last season, and he looks to be in line for an even better overall output in ‘07. He’s a threat to score every week, but the Broncos have one of the NFL’s best starting cornerback tandems in Champ Bailey and Dre Bly. Bailey is going to make it difficult on Evans all day, and will help keep him out of the endzone.

Actual: 2 catches for 5 yards, 0 TDs

Torry Holt, St. Louis Rams: You have to start him if he’s in the lineup (and he will be), but that disclosure about offseason knee surgery and the lingering effects it’s having on his health are big, bright red flags. He could post typical Holt numbers today, but Carolina fielded the league’s fourth-best pass defense in ‘06 and is a tough matchup for a guy still not 100% and in an offense with plenty of other weapons.

Actual: 8 catches for 73 yards, 1 TD

Sneaky Play of the Week

Demetrius Williams, Baltimore Ravens: It’s probably a good idea to wait and see what this Ravens passing attack is like before starting any of their WRs (including Mark Clayton, for now, as he battles a high-ankle sprain). But the Bengals secondary finished 31st out of 32 teams in pass defense last year, and Williams could surprise with one or more red-zone TDs if McGahee doesn’t bust them in himself. He’s an excellent Red Zone threat, but Williams can score from anywhere and is one of our favorite breakout players this season. Scoop him up.

Actual: 3 catches for 55 yards, 0 TDs

Dud of the Week

Bernard Berrian, Chicago Bears: Rex Grossman was awful in the preseason and doesn’t look like a quarterback who’s got many years left in the starter’s job. With all kinds of pressure to perform on his shoulders, he’ll struggle against a ferocious San Diego defense that thrives on turnovers and sacks. That’s bad news for Berrian owners; bench him and look elsewhere.

Actual: 5 catches for 83 yards, 0 TDs

Five Strong Tight End Plays

Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys: Witten is a stud but for whatever reason gets little respect in fantasy football circles. Aside from Gates and Gonzalez, there are few tight ends in the NFL we’d feel comfortable only taking out on a bye week. The Giants defensive backs are terrible, their linebackers can’t keep up with him, and Witten will prove it Week 1.

Actual: 6 catches for 116 yards, 1 TD

Vernon Davis, SF 49ers: Don’t prove us idiots, Mr. Davis, for putting you second overall in our Tight End Rankings. We like Alex Smith’s development and think he’ll take a big step forward, with Davis playing a huge role in the third-year QB’s success. There’s some playmakers in Arizona’s secondary, but Davis is a freak athlete who seems to have all the confidence in the world. He’ll make a splash on opening night.

Actual: 2 catches for 4 yards, 0 TDs

Chris Cooley, Washington Redskins: Fresh off a big contract extension, Cooley will show why he’s valued so highly by turning in a strong, hard-fought performance against a good Dolphins defense. Jason Campbell’s on-field BFF will go for somewhere around 6 catches, 65 yards, and a score–that’s all you can ask for from your tight end not named Antonio.

Actual: 1 catch for 10 yards, 0 TDs

Tony Gonzalez, KC Chiefs: Gonzo is headed for an up-and-down season with an only so-so offensive line that will force him to stay in and block more than he’d like to. There’s not much on the outside, though, as Dwayne Bowe goes through the rookie WR growing pains. Starter-for-now Damon Huard will heavily rely on his safety blanket in the middle. We like his chances to score.

Actual: 5 catches for 28 yards, 0 TDs

Benjamin Watson, NE Patriots: With all the attention focused on Moss and Stallworth, Watson will find some open pockets in the middle and do some damage. A score is very possible, as is 4-5 catches for 50+ yards.

Actual: 2 catches for 9 yards, 1 TD

Sneaky Play of the Week

Randy McMichael, St. Louis Rams: He’s flying under the radar because of some consistency (and QB) issues in Miami, but could enjoy a major return to fantasy relevance in his first year with the Rams. Again, the Panthers have a great secondary, but McMichael can beat their linebackers and has a chance to score and pull in 75 yards or so receiving.

Actual: 2 catches for 24 yards, 0 TDs

Dud of the Week

Desmond Clark, Chicago Bears: See Bernard Berrien. On top of everything else going against the Bears offense tonight, Clark will find himself sharing time with highly touted rookie Greg Olsen. He’s a dicey play until proven otherwise, and likely to lose value each week as Olsen proves himself more than capable finding seams in opposing defenses.

Actual: 3 catches for 38 yards, 0 TDs

Five Strong Team Defense Plays

New England Patriots: Chad Pennington has looked truly terrible for about two years now. He’s gone from a guy who would protect the football extremely well to one who throws as many INTs as TDs. The Jets offensive line is suspect and their primary rusher Thomas Jones is coming off injury. The Pats were already a good DEF, but the addition of freak Adalius Thomas makes them elite again.

Actual: 14 points allowed, 5 sacks, 0 INT

Minnesota Vikings: Last season Minnesota nearly set the NFL record for fewest rushing yards allowed, but they were soft against the pass. The departure of Mike Tomlin was a blow but new defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier has the Viqueens swarming the ball and creating havoc. Look for a more balanced defense from Minnesota this season, one which should cause a ton of turnovers… especially with Joey Harrington in town.

Actual: 3 points allowed, 6 sacks, 2 INTs, 2 TDs

Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh is usually a strong play, but they are licking their chops at the chance to line up opposite Charlie Frye (17 INTs and 10 TDs last season). Jamal Lewis is now a plodding running back who doesn’t strike fear into the hearts of anyone, what with his 3.6 and 3.4 YPC the last two seasons. The Browns’ weak O-line compounds matters, making Pittsburgh a must-start.

Actual: 7 points allowed, 6 sacks, 2 INTs, 3 Fumble Recoveries, 0 TDs

San Diego Chargers: I love the San Diego defense, and I think they’ll make mince meat out of the compulsively erratic Rex Grossman. The Chargers can apply so much pressure from both sides that even Chicago’s solid line will be overwhelmed, forcing Rex into bad decision after bad decision. I’m not sold on Cedric Benson or the Chicago receiving corps just yet, either.

Actual: 3 points allowed, 3 sacks, 1 INT, 0 TD

Denver Broncos: The Broncos are barely a top-12 defense, but this week they’re a very strong option. J.P. Losman put up some pretty decent games toward the end of last season but he’s still prone to gambling too often. Marshawn Lynch should be a fine player someday, but rookies make mistakes, especially in their first game. The Bills rely too heavily on Lee Evans every week, and Denver has one of the few players in the NFL who can shut him down: Champ Bailey.

Actual: 14 points allowed, 2 sacks, 1 INT, 0 TDs

Temper Your Expectations

Oakland Raiders: We at ETB are believers in the Lions’ offense. They have all the makings of an explosive unit like the ones Martz used to field in St. Louis. Oakland was an underrated defense last season but they were extremely solid and they should be a good bet for most of the season. However, you just know Jon Kitna, Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson are going to be out to prove they are an elite offense right away and Mike Martz will pull some exotic, big plays out of his bag of tricks.

Actual: 36 points allowed, 2 sacks, 2 INTs, 0 TDs

Carolina Panthers: One of the NFL’s strongest and most consistent offenses got a whole lot better this offseason and Carolina will be the first victim. Sure, Julius Peppers is one of the finest players in the NFL and this is still a good D, but this unit is in slow decline and they simply don’t have the horses to run with the Rams. The addition of big Red Zone threats Drew Bennett and Randy McMichael paired with Torry Holt and Steven Jackson make St. Louis an absolute nightmare inside the 20.

Actual: 13 points allowed, 1 sack, 0 INTs, 2 Fumble Recoveries, 0 TDs

Sneaky Play of the Week

Philadelphia Eagles: The Philly D is perfectly average, but in Week 1 they could be facing an offense that starts two rookies and a second year player at three skill positions: WR James Jones, RB Brandon Jackson and WR Greg Jennings. On top of that, Brett Favre has been among the league leaders in INTs over the last few seasons. If Donald Driver is at full strength for this matchup Philadelphia isn’t quite as strong of a play, but they should still have plenty of opportunities for takeaways and to take advantage of inexperience in key places.

Actual: 16 points allowed, 4 sacks, 1 INT, 1 Fumble Recovery, 0 TDs

Dud of the Week

New York Jets: The Jets get the honor of hosting a revamped New England passing attack in Week 1, and the results will be ugly. Donte’ Stallworth and Randy Moss are playmakers who can make any defense look bad, and Laurence Maroney appears to be fully recovered from offseason shoulder surgery. Chad Pennington and Co. should also give the Patriots plenty of short fields to work with, something Tom Brady and Maroney will take advantage of.

Actual: 38 points allowed, 0 sacks, 0 INTs, 0 TDs, 0 respect

*Disclaimer: Regardless of week-to-week matchups, there are players who should be in your starting lineup every week. You know who they are. Sometimes we’ll list these guys, sometimes we won’t. To make things easy, however, we have picked some players at each position who will never be listed in our Top Matchups– they’re studs and are always must starts. They are: QB Peyton Manning, QB Carson Palmer, RB LaDainian Tomlinson, RB Steven Jackson, RB Larry Johnson, WR Chad Johnson, WR Stevonne Smith, TE Antonio Gates, DEF Chicago and DEF Baltimore.