Empty the Bench

When preparing for a fantasy football draft you always need to generate two categories: players to gun for and players to avoid. This article highlights ten players we at ETB are avoiding like the plague this draft season.

Everybody has their own way of keeping track of these two groups, but one popular way is to generate a cheat sheet of all the players you could potentially draft in descending order of fantasy value, highlight the players you expect to break out or exceed typical expectations in green, and highlight players you expect to regress, get injured or perform poorly in red.

If you decide to use such a system, here are ten fantasy albatrosses you’ll want to get that red highlighter out for. Caveat emptor.

Brian’s Five to Avoid:

Clinton Portis, RB, Washington Redskins: Dr. James Andrews is perhaps the greatest villain in fantasy football. When a player pays the good doctor a visit, it means he’s hurting, that the high-paid team physicians are at their wit’s end, and/or that major surgery could be on the way. It’s an especially bad sign when an already dinged-up player like Portis–who missed the second half of the 2006 season and is still recovering from his knee injury–feels compelled to visit him before the preseason is even halfway over.

The good news for Portis is that Andrews’ prognosis was that the ‘Skins medical staff was doing their job correctly and treating his injuries as well as they could. Fine. But there’s no question that kernels of doubt are starting to pop in Portis’ head. Running backs have a short shelf life in the NFL, especially when it comes to fantasy impact, and when a player falls off, they fall off fast. Nothing against the six-year veteran, but we can’t see him making it through the season injury-free… or as the starter. We all saw what his backup, Ladell Betts, is capable of when given the opportunity. To be fair, all things being equal, Portis is still the better back.

Joe Gibbs likes to run his backs into the ground; with a still-inexperienced quarterback behind center, that offensive philosophy isn’t about to change this year. Incredibly enough, Portis is still being taken, on average, in the middle of the second round in Yahoo! drafts. C’mon, you want to actually win your league this year–you can do better than that. At a minimum, Portis will be platooning with Betts all year long; at worst, he succumbs to injuries early on and becomes a waiver afterthought. No thanks.

Randy Moss, WR, New England Patriots: Don’t measure Moss’ long-term prospects to fit into New England’s offensive scheme on any performances in the first few weeks. Bill Belichick may be an asshole, but he’s no dummy: Brady will very likely be asked to target Moss perhaps more than he normally would as the season kicks off. We fully expect Mr. Tempermental to haul in a few bombs and score a touchdown or two in the first week against the Jets. A happy Randy Moss is an engaged Randy Moss who at least cares about his own stats, if not the team’s record.

What’ll be interesting to see, however, is how he reacts when a, say, Troy Brown has more passes thrown his way two or three weeks in a row. When Moss mentally packs it in, forget it–he’s done. Tom Brady is known for spreading the ball around–it’s a big part of why he and the team’s offense are consistently successful–and that will in all likelihood not change just because Moss is in the mix.

On average, Moss is coming off the draft board in the middle of the third round, ahead of guys like Roy Williams (!), Marques Colston, Anquan Boldin, and Donald Driver. Don’t be foolish man–let someone else deal with the Moss Headache all season of trying to decide whether to start him, bench him, trade him, or cut him. Of course, it’s not impossible to think he could regain at least some of his dominating 1998 - 2003 form, so if he’s sliding and you need a wideout, by all means take the gamble.

It’s not that he doesn’t deserve a spot on your roster–just don’t bank on him being your #1 guy. Call us crazy, but we foresee the words “aggravated hamstring” and “sprained ankle” appearing in his weekly fantasy reports more than “monster effort” and “the old Moss is back.”

Chad Pennington, QB, New York Jets: Moss’ college teammate is coming off a decent 2006 campaign that netted him an 82.6 QB Rating and a Comeback Player of the Year award. The addition of Thomas Jones at running back will ideally make opposing defenses at least carry a passing interest in stopping the Jets ground game. That, of course, should make it easier for the eighth-year veteran to zero in on his tandem of respectable WR targets in Jerricho Cotchery and Laveranues Coles. And, yes, he’s a more palatable personality than his crosstown counterpart.

What Pennington is not, however, is a player who belongs on your fantasy roster. That even goes for you, face-painting Jets fan. Quick: how many seasons has Goldie Locks made it all the way through w/o missing a game? One–last year. We’re guessing that’ll be the last such campaign of Chad’s career. Most fantasy players out there are already steering clear of the Jets’ QB: thus far in Yahoo! drafts, on average he’s not coming off the board until the 13th round… behind such talent as Rex Grossman, Jeff Garcia, and Jason Campbell. Still, he has been taken 60% of the time. Don’t do it. Not as your backup, not as an insurance policy, not as a straight homer pick.

Vince Young, QB, Tennessee Titans: Andrew and I are in disagreement here, and so are a lot of you; on average, Young has been drafted mid-fifth round thus far. I’m not high on Young’s potential for fantasy greatness this season. Don’t get me wrong–the reigning Rookie of the Year is an electrifying player who’s going to be a true fantasy monster for many years to come. But that’s not until the Titans’ front office actually fields a respectable group of weapons for him to utilize. At times last season, he did it all by himself, but I’m skeptical that he can continue to thrive, statistically, on his talent alone.

Look at the group of backs he’ll be handing off to this year: Chris Brown, LenDale “Who Stole My Twinkies?” White, and rookie Chris Henry. That’s one fragile veteran, one overweight second-year guy, and a relative unknown. His receiving options aren’t much better (if not worse): Brandon Jones, David Givens, Roydell Williams, Justin Gage… I’ll stop there. You get the idea.

No one expected Young to perform like he did last season; very few rookie quarterbacks walk into the league, singlehandedly take over games, and are named to the Pro Bowl. This year, he won’t surprise anyone; game plans for stopping the Titans’ offense will revolve around him, and he’s going to struggle at times without a clear-cut, go-to guy downfield. Remember, for all his accolades in ‘06, he still finished with a 66.7 QB Rating, 13 picks, and 11 fumbles (3 lost) to go with those impressive 2,199 yards passing, 552 yards rushing, and 19 TDs overall.

Again–it’s not that Young isn’t deserving of a roster spot. That’s hardly the case. But I’m not comfortable with him as my starter, especially when guys with all kinds of firepower in the backfield and at wide receiver will still be there for the taking in the 5th - 10th round (Jon Kitna, Tony Romo, Matt Leinart, etc). Young is a solid backup option, but for my money, he’s not a starter in 2007. And that’s not even taking into account ye olde Madden Curse…

LaMont Jordan, RB, Oakland Raiders: I’ll be shocked if the Raiders don’t finish the 2007 season with one of the least-productive offenses in the league (not to mention the first-overall pick in the ‘08 draft). Leading the charge will be the Raiders’ backfield, which is going to be stuffed by opposing teams like the team’s QBs, Daunte Culpepper and rookie JaMarcus Russell, will be stuffed after gorging themselves at team meals.

In his first year in Oakland–and his first as a full-time starter–Jordan dominated in ‘05, racking up 1,025 yards rushing, 70 receptions for 563 yards, and 11 touchdowns. Last year, however, may have revealed that Jordan cannot hold up to the pounding of 20 - 25+ carries a week, as a serious back injury limited him to nine mostly ineffective games (434 rushing, 74 receiving, 2 TDs). Dominic Rhodes was brought in during the offseason, and another oft-injured back, Justin Fargas, is also in the mix. It doesn’t matter who’s back there–avoid the Raiders’ backfield.

Andrew’s Five to Avoid:

Donovan McNabb, QB, Philadelphia Eagles: This is coming from somebody who is counting on McNabb in one of my leagues. I’m already worried sick about it. His injury history is well documented, but the five-time Pro Bowler is still an attractive fantasy option and being drafted as a top-5 quarterback. It’s easy to look at Donovan’s production with rose-colored glasses. When on the field he’s a top-3 QB and he was fantasy’s top ranked player before going down last year (again).

Let’s refresh: McNabb missed six games in 2006 (marooning fantasy owners for the stretch run and the playoffs), seven games in 2005, struggled through various maladies in 2003 to total just 16 passing scores and missed six games in 2002. While there’s little doubt he’ll post solid numbers when on the field, he’s only played a full season once since 2001.

Any team that was counting on McNabb in four of the last five seasons lost their league as a result. Maybe this is the year he puts it all together and stays healthy. Maybe. If so, he can do it for another fantasy squad. He’s already missed the first preseason game for Philadelphia while still recovering from the shredded ACL he suffered in his right knee last November. How many regular season games can your fantasy team afford to have him on the sidelines for? If you are forced to draft him, be quick to select a quality backup (Matt Leinart in my case).

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars: One of the biggest differences between the veteran fantasy player and the relative newbie is that the veteran won’t chase last season’s stats. What are the odds that MJD reproduces his stellar rookie campaign? Zero. I have absolutely no faith in his ability to rack up another 16 TDs and nearly 1,200 total yards in that crowded backfield. He took a lot of defenses by surprise last year, which allowed Jones-Drew to post a stellar 5.7 YPC in 2006 (only behind fellow burners and part-timers Jerious Norwood and Michael Turner). That has to come back to earth in 2007, especially with the Jacksonville passing game requiring so little attention and honesty from opposing defenses.

I think MJD is a fantastic talent and should be a very solid back in the NFL over the next five years, but if you think he’s got another 2006 in him, well, as Rob Halford would say, “You’ve got another thing coming.”

Joey Galloway/Michael Clayton, WR, Tampa Bay Bucs: These are two guys on the opposite ends of their careers, but both are equally unattractive on draft day. After enjoying one of the best statistical rookie seasons of the past 15 years in 2004 (1,193 yards and 7 TDs), Clayton has now failed to pass the 400 yard plateau in consecutive campaigns. In fact, he has just 738 yards and 1 (!) TD since that rookie campaign. Is he a post-hype sleeper then? No. Teams have learned that Clayton has just average speed and strength, so they started jamming him at the line and daring him to beat them for big plays. As a result, he’s been woefully incapable of creating separation. He’s unlikely to be one of the top two WRs on his own team, and he’s not even worth drafting.

Galloway, on the other hand, was an extremely gifted athlete who had no problem sloughing off DBs, and should be drafted in every league. There are two problems with him though: he’s an aging wideout (he’ll turn 36 in November) who has depended on his physical tools, and he’s playing in an anemic passing offense that will likely be counting on Jeff Garcia to find him deep. That’s a recipe for disaster. The last two seasons Joey has had something of a career renaissance in Tampa, putting up a very respectable 2,344 yards and 17 TDs. Don’t chase those numbers either: Galloway will come back to earth in 2007.

Warrick Dunn, RB, Atlanta Falcons: Once upon a time, Dunn was a shifty but undersized 12th overall pick out of Florida State that had an incredible ability to make larger, slower defenders consistently miss. He was never a touchdown machine, but he was one of the best receivers out of the backfield in the league (Catching between 37-64 passes for 336-589 yards over his first seven seasons). Being smallish was always the knock on Dunn, but he’s proved remarkably sturdy for a man his size over the years; he’s missed just ten games over his ten-year career, and played in all 16 games for the last three seasons.

His run of good health (luck) may have run out this offseason, as he underwent surgery for a herniated disc in his back a few weeks ago. Add in the fact that he’s 32 years old, their star QB Michael Vick will miss the season due to suspension, and he’s just barely ahead of the younger and ultra-talented Jerious Norwood on the depth chart, and you have a fantasy player to avoid. Additionally, he’s been held under 30 receptions in each of the last three years. Even when healthy and the clear-cut number one Dunn has never recorded more than 9 total TDs in a season, but this year he’s likely to suffer a major drop-off in all aspects of his production.

DeShaun Foster, RB, Carolina Panthers: There was a time when I was very high on a young man named DeShaun Foster, a 2003 second-round pick out of UCLA that should have gone in the first round and had all the talent in the world. Then Foster’s propensity for injuries large and small spoiled all hope I had for a productive fantasy career. He missed all but four games in 2004 with a broken leg and seems to have never fully recovered. While he’s actually stayed relatively healthy over the last few years, those injuries and NFL wear and tear have eroded his skill set to a shadow of what it once was. Foster no longer possesses the game-breaking ability he had, and after just four seasons in the NFL (in which he’s produced only 10 total TDs) Foster already appears to be on the downside of his career.

Last season as the starter DeShaun recorded 897 yards rushing and just 3 rushing TDs on a meager 4.0 YPC. Still, John Fox remained fiercely, frustratingly loyal to Foster as his starting running back. To this day he sits atop the depth chart for the Panthers, but you’d be a fool to take him over stud-in-waiting DeAngelo Williams. It’s only a matter of time (weeks, really) before Williams’ electrifying speed and moves position him as Carolina’s starting tailback, relegating Foster as a pricey and largely ineffective handcuff.