Empty the Bench

The last week had been fairly quiet around the NBA, NFL and MLB. After the deadline dealing in baseball was overshadowed by the huge, massive, earth-shattering Garnett-to-Boston trade there was a lull, but in recent days things have picked up. Training camps have also broken in the NFL and there is some very relevant fantasy news brewing there and in the NBA.
Let’s get to it.

Around the NBA:

Elton Brand Goes Down: Yesterday afternoon, ESPN reported that fantasy stud and ETB favorite Elton Brand will undergo surgery to repair a ruptured Achilles’ tendon. Brand will miss at least six months recouping, meaning his season is likely over before it starts. The Clippers are insisting he’ll be ready in January, but that’s pushing the limits of human healing and even if he did make such a dramatic recovery his effectiveness as a hobbled, 6′7″ power forward in the West is questionable. Additionally, the Clips are unlikely to be in a heated battle for playoff positioning, so they won’t rush their franchise player back earlier than would be prudent.

A consensus late-first/early-second round pick, this is big news- especially for those who have him in keeper leagues. What does this do to his draft stock? Clearly it obliterates it, but a wise fantasy owner can profit even when the market tumbles. In a rotisserie league without a DL spot (curse you, Yahoo!), you just can’t draft the guy right now. If you do have a DL spot in a roto league, he’s now a late-round flier. In head-to-head leagues with a DL, he’s a 9th or 10th round selection who could give you a big boost during the fantasy playoffs and, again, a late flier in DL-less leagues for experienced and skillful owners only.

The big winners here are the other Clippers big men, specifically Al Thornton, Tim Thomas, and Chris “Caveman” Kaman. The absence of Brand frees up about 10 rebounds, 15-18 shots and 35-39 minutes a game at the PF and C positions. Thornton suddenly becomes an impact rookies that will likely start needs to be drafted in all leagues. He’s a great mid-range jump shooter who is athletic enough to guard opposing SFs and will be quicker than most lumbering PFs. Tim Thomas isn’t that great of a basketball player, but he sure can score and puts up nice 3-pointer numbers from the position. Kaman is in line to average a double-double, and could be asked to score 15+ points a game- likely at the expense of his FG%.

The other winner is Corey Maggette, who will be the focal point of the Clippers’ offense this season. Expect him to do what he does best, scoring 22+ points a game while providing excellent FT% help and a decent FG% for a SG. Maggette also brings some nice peripherals and will probably post around 6 rebounds, 3 assists and a steal should also be in the offing. He’ll also be turning the ball over a ton, so keep that in mind when formulating your team strategy. I like him in th 4th round now, but I’ve always been a bit bullish on the slasher.

Juan Carlos Navarro Traded: The Wiz have finally found a suitor for their debonair Spanish point guard, agreeing in principle to ship him to the Memphis Grizzlies for a 2008 first-round draft pick. Navarro is said to be Pau Gasol’s best friend, and the former teammates should have little problem gelling. This probably means significantly fewer minutes for 2007 first-round pick Mike Conley Jr., which is a shame. Hopefully the move doesn’t stunt his growth in the long term. The Grizz now have four point guards on the roster and this could be a fantasy black hole in the coming season. Don’t invest heavily anywhere. Considered the best PG in Europe by some, it is a nice step from Memphis’ standpoint as they continue to stockpile young talent and assets around Gasol (for the present) and prepare for his eventual departure in the next year or so.

NBA Dollars and Sense: The Boston Herald has done a nice job making some sense of the pressing financial situations of all the team’s around the league. Most notable for me was the news that Al Jefferson wants to sign a contract to stay in Minnesota for the long terms, he wants roughly $10 million a year, and he wants to sign now. In Wolves country, $10 million a year is something to sneeze at. This isn’t exactly how the equation works, I know, but Al is already half as good as Garnett now and will likely surpass him in 3-5 years, making him a nice bargain compared to KG’s $20+ million salary over the next six years. Add in the expiring contract of Theo Ratliff and Minnesota can make a run at any free agent on the market next season or the following year and will have a much easier time re-signing Gerald Green, Randy Foye, Craig Smith, and Ronnie Brewer to extensions in the years to come.

Around the NFL

Yahoo!’s Poster Boy Set to Explode: Bengals beat writer Kevin Goheen reports that Chad Johnson expects to put up gaudy numbers this year. We’ve already ranked him as our top wide receiver heading into the year, but this news has us downright giddy about Chad’s prospects, “I know it’s stupid to say and it’s not good, some people aren’t going to like it but I’ve set aside money again (for fines), like I did in ‘05 and that was a ridiculous year where I had fun . . . I’m having fun again . . .This is a business and you’ve got to understand the business, the ins and outs of it, [but] this will be a year to entertain, not just myself but the fans in Cincinnati and around the world. This is going to be a fun year.” I’m with you Chad.

The Carolina Backfield: DeShaun Foster has been lining up with the first-team offense the last few days, and has been receiving all of the goal line work. ETB favorite DeAngelo Williams got into the scrimmage on the first drive over the weekend and had two chances to score from the 1-yard line, but was stuffed on both occasions. Perhaps it’s time to temper my wild expectations for DeAngelo. If the kid got 20-25 touches every week, he would be an elite fantasy running back. I have no doubt about that. But it appears that Carolina is committed to the ineffective, veteran Foster. Goal line touches are an essential part of consistent fantasy production (See: Barber III, Marion) and if Williams is going to be taken out there in addition to losing carries between the 20s he may not be the elite RB 3 option I pegged him as. I’m not moving him too far down my draft board just yet, but this situation bears monitoring.

The Indianapolis Defense is Your Friend: On Sunday, NFL Network’s Adam Schefter reported that Colts DT Anthony “Booger” McFarland will miss the season with a torn ACL. This comes on the heels of DT Corey Simon being released, and in an offseason where the Colts have lost two significant tacklers in the defensive backfield. The Colts’ D was going to be fantasy friendly either way, but now I’m thinking you want to be sure to start opposing running backs every week. Wide receivers could also feast on this decimated D as the team goes through a significant post-Super Bowl hangover. That’s good news for the Colts’ offensive skill players though: they should be involved in plenty of shootouts and won’t be able to rest their stars with comfortable leads nearly as often. What this offense could do playing from behind for long stretches is downright scary.

The Patriots Receiver Corps: Over the weekend the Boston Herald Reported Donte’ Stallworth, Chad Jackson, and Troy Brown were in all in uniform. Today, Donte’ assumed first-team duties. This figures to be a productive fantasy position on the whole, but production for the specific receivers could be sporadic. While Jackson and Brown are coming off knee surgeries, they look to be ready for the regular season. Add Randy Moss (who needs looks to keep his head in the game), Reche Caldwell and offseason acquisition Wes Welker to the mix and you have the makings of a real headache.

I’m still a believer in Moss’ skills, but when I look at the ADP of Moss and Stallworth I’m starting to thing this is a situation to be avoided on draft day unless they fall into your lap. Tom Brady’s tendency is to spread it around and not fall in love with one go-to guy. Brady threw TDs to 11 different players last season, and nobody on the current roster is a lock for solid, weekly fantasy production- Randy Moss included.