Empty the Bench

We’re officially in the doldrums of the NBA offseason, when an Andrew Bogut haircut is considered “news.” The draft is over, every impact free agent has been signed, very few potential trades are in the works and summer league activity has mercilessly ground to a halt. Warriors, Timberwolves and Kevin Garnett fans eagerly await August 8th when Brandan Wright can be traded. Everybody else is busy convincing themselves baseball isn’t boring. There was something in the paper this morning, some controversy about a ref (I don’t recall his name), but I’m sure that’ll blow over by tomorrow. Still, there have been a few notable developments in the last week plus that will have an effect on regulation and fantasy play this season.

Here’s the rundown:

The Stevie Francis Signing: It’s amazing what a difference two years can make for The Player formerly Known as Franchise. Francis finished the 04-05 season with averages of 21.3 points, 5.8 boards and 7.0 assists and had averaged at least 5.3 boards and 6.2 assists in all of his first six seasons in the league. He hasn’t even approached those numbers in any stop since, his value bottoming out when the Portland Trailblazers decided they’d rather not even have him on the roster earlier this month. After considering the Clippers, Mavs and Heat he decided to return to the scene of past successes, Houston.

He should have gone to LA. If we’ve learned anything about Steve in the last two years, it’s that he’s a shaky character player whose ego will not allow him to be a role player. He needs to dominate the rock, for better or worse, in order to produce. I don’t think that’s going to gel with McGrady and Yao already in place as option 1 and 1A on offense (20.9 and 17.1 FG attempts per game, respectively).

He’s had at least 3.3 turnovers (usually closer to 4) every season when he’s gotten minutes and has never posted a 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. What I’m saying is, this isn’t a real point guard. That’s odd because you have to assume that Rafer Alston’s days in Houston are over, presumably because he lacks the ability to keep the offense in rhythm. I completely understand deciding that you can’t win with a PG with Skip’s shooting deficiencies (38.4% FGs, 72.7% FTs for his career), but at least he sports a career 3-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Offensive guru Rick Adelman could make this work, but unless he’s got something up his sleeve Francis is going to muddy up the whole offensive flow.

I thought it might be a mistake to trade away Juwanna Man Howard because of Yao’s health issues and because depending on Chuck Hayes for 35 quality minutes is a shaky proposition, but Mike James made a lot of sense for this team. He’s a decent ball handler, a decent scorer, a good passer and a strong outside shooter. Bringing in Francis befuddles me. It’s uncertain who the starting PG will be, but it seems like Skip is on the outs. Which leads us to . . .

Rafer Alston to Miami?: It makes too much sense for Skip to take his 3-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio and street/court sense to South Beach, so maybe it won’t happen. It’s been no secret that the Heat are the biggest buyers in the PG market right now, and they’re likely going to make a move for Alston. He’s got plenty of experience feeding a dominant big man on his resume. Rafer doesn’t need to, and shouldn’t, shoot much in order to be effective- which will make him fast friends with Dwyane Wade. I think they should keep Udonis Haslem, but the Heat are apparently willing to deal him. The undersized power forward would be a perfect fit alongside Yao and Hayes up front for Houston.

The Chucky Atkins Signing: Another quarterback on the move, Atkins is in line for a significant uptick in production and minutes this season. It’s a two-year guaranteed deal which will pay $3.2 million this year, $3.4 million the next and there’s a team option for the following season, meaning Denver is willing to commit to him as AI’s running mate in the backcourt. He’s a great fantasy sleeper now, playing in one of the most fantasy-friendly offenses in the league. A pretty decent passer, Chucky can share ball handling duties with Iverson and Atkins’ outside touch will be a major asset to the Nuggets. It’s unclear where this leaves professional chucker JR Smith, but he’ll likely be a Voshon Lenard-type of role player this season, which can still help fantasy squads.

The (Derek) Fisher King Signing: This is a homecoming for Fisher, who played with Kobe Bryant for eight seasons and won three titles in LA. It’s a three-year deal in the neighborhood of $14 million and Fisher should be the starter entering this season. His steady play and veteran leadership is a major upgrade over the perpetually mercurial and whiny Smush Parker, who should have never been a starting PG in the first place. It also eases some of the pressure off of the Lakers’ PG of the future, Jordan Farmar, giving him another year or two to develop. Expect increased minutes and a modest improvement on the 10.1 points, 1.8 rebounds and 3.3 assists Fisher put up in Mormon country last year.

Corey Maggette Emerges from Doghouse, Sees Shadow: From a practical standpoint using Maggette as a reserve never made sense to me. He’s a rhythm player who needs minutes to make the most of his talents. He’s a scorer, but not the kind who can just stand around waiting for occasional jumpers. Stubborn head coach Mike Dunleavy has finally come to his senses, saying Maggette will definitely be in the starting lineup for the coming season.

Corey is a runaway freight train when he takes it to the hole, drawing a ton of fouls, putting pressure on opposing front lines and racking up free throw attempts that he usually makes (8+ FT attempts and 82+% FT shooting in each of the last four seasons). That’s his bread and butter in fantasy basketball, and there are very few players in the league who can buoy your squad’s FT% like Maggette can. Sure, he’s a defensive liability (and Tim Thomas isn’t?!), but the Clippers lack better scoring options. Cat Mobley is slowing down and Sam Cassell looks like he could be ready to phone home any day now.

Andrea Bargnani’s Here to Pump You Up: One of ETB’s favorite breakout candidates just got bumped up my cheat sheet a few notches: he’s stronger and he could qualify at center. The Star columnist Doug Smith is reporting that the sweet-shooting big man is bulking up in a serious way, “Apparently Andrea Bargnani, according to a friend who writes here for the most important Italian sports daily, looks bigger, stronger and better than when he left. That’s not a surprise – he lost an awful lot of weight when he missed that month after having his appendix taken out – but the bigger part of the equation is significant if he’s going to have to defend centres and power forwards this season.”

Smith also reports that Andrea will be a full-time starter next year, occasionally as a “centre,” which is the equivalent of our center position. I was pretty skeptical about this kid, but he impressed me last year. He looked tougher than I thought down low (especially during that blocks binge of late December and early January in which he swatted 6 in one game) and he can actually create his own shot sometimes. He also had little trouble adjusting to the NBA three-point line, knocking down 100 triples as a rookie. In the ideal situation of playing alongside Chris Bosh and the tremendous penetration and passing skills of TJ Ford, if Bargnani is able to take a big step physically, look out. I’ll go out on a limb and make a bold projection for the 21-year-old of 16.5 points, 6.0 rebounds, 1.5 blocks, and 2.0 threes. If he ends up qualifying at center, that puts him in elite company.

The World’s Best Haircut: Andrew Bogut got a new haircut, and it ain’t pretty. He was seen on an Aussie talk show sporting the pastie-inspired ‘do.You can check out the whole interview here. Bogut comes across like somebody David Brent would idolize/hang out with.

Many thanks go to MLive for the still image.