Empty the Bench

With th All-Star break approaching it’s a great opportunity to take the few minutes you would have put into lineup decisions and evaluate the state of your fantasy baseball squad. The most important thing you can do it to look at the overall standings and see where teams are clustered in a certain category. You’ll also want to take a look at where potential trading partners stand so you can make an offer that will get their attention. For example, if there’s only one other team ahead of you in steals and the next guy is 20 back, it might be time to sell off some of those coveted SBs to a team in the middle of the pack who’s desperate for a boost and will value them more than you. And that one guy in front of you? He’s probably not willing to pay a fair price for Brian Roberts. If there are three of four teams within 15 or fewer home runs, then buying low on a power hitter like Paul Konerko, Ryan Howard, Lance Berkman, Troy Glaus, Jim Thome, Nick Swisher, Mark Teixeira or Travis Hafner will serve you well. Given their talent and track records, we know the best part of their season is yet to come.

For today though, we’re going to take a look at pitching. Specifically, buy-low players who may even be on the waiver wire or in your free agent pool that can give your team a boost down the stretch. As the season gets further along WHIP, ERA, K/BB and the other ratio stats you may use for pitching will become more and more difficult to make up ground in so the time to take action is now. Those are also categories where most leagues tend to have logjams in the rankings as well. Here’s a short list of the guys ETB recommends looking at to right your pitching ship, starting with a strategy that can pay immediate dividends: grabbing middle relievers. Obviously, your league size and format greatly impact the value of these hurlers so take that into consideration before doing anything drastic.

Pat Neshek, RP, MN: There’s nothing wrong with stud closer Joe Nathan, but that didn’t stop Twins Manager Ron Gardenhire from saying Wednesday that Mr. Neshek has the mentality to be a closer. Nathan will be the man in Minnesota as long as he’s under contract (through next season), but this could be Gardy’s way of getting us used to the idea of Neshek taking the job in 2009. And of course, if Nathan ever went down for any reason this year Pat would instantly become one of the top five relief pitchers in fantasy baseball. After a stellar rookie season a year ago, it’s more of the same in 2007: a 1.74 ERA, a 0.73 WHIP and a 51/13 K/BB ratio in 41.1 innings pitched. On top of that, he has 4 wins in those 41 innings, making him a must-own in all formats.

To put that in perspective, if a starting pitcher totals 20 wins and over 200 Ks in his 200 innings pitched he’s on the short list of Cy Young candidates. If he does it with a 0.73 WHIP he’s had one of the best seasons in the history of fantasy baseball. There isn’t a fantasy squad in existence that couldn’t use a Pat Neshek. Now he probably won’t go over 85 innings this season, but that just means you need to have two of three of these types to make up for it instead of one stud starter and one or two mediocre ones.

Neshek is representative of a whole class of middle relievers who may have dominant numbers and a low ranking and trade value simply because their limited innings lead to low W and K totals relative to starters. Don’t let the rank throw you, these are quality players who can make a major contribution in your ratios. Target guys like Hideki Okajima (0.88 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 2 Ws, 4 SVs, 37 Ks in 41 innings), Heath Bell (1.45 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 51 Ks in 49.2 innings), Rafael Betancourt (1.19 ERA, 0.66 WHIP, 34 Ks and a K/BB of 11.33 in 37.2 innings), Scot Shields (1.81 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 2 Ws, 2 SVs, 42 Ks in 44.2 innings), Carlos Villanueva (2.75 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 6 Ws, 54 Ks in 59 innings) and Jonathan Broxton (2.86 ERA, 1.20WHIP, 3 Ws, 54 Ks in 50 innings).

If they aren’t available as free agents, trade for them. They’re often easy guys to convince another manager to ‘throw in’ as part of a package because the manager doesn’t think he’ll miss them too much. Three other super subs in this category that also have a good shot at taking over closer duties this season are Zack Greinke, Carlos Mármol and Rafael Soriano . . .

Zack Greinke, RP, KC: Greinke has all the talent in the world. He was the 6th overall pick in 2002 and posted a 3.97 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 2004 before succumbing to emotional problems over the last two years. He struggled a bit earlier this year as a starter, but has finally started to look like his old self after being moved to the bullpen. Over the span of ten June appearances he put up a very solid 3.06 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 20 Ks on an impressive .203 BAA in 17.2 innings and closed out the month by closing out his first career save on the 29th. Of late, he’s only allowed 1 run in his last 9.2 innings. Manager Buddy Bell has already named Greinke the Royal’s backup closer earlier this month which is significant. It’s almost a forgone conclusion that incumbent Octavio Dotel will be dealt, so you’re looking at a likely closer with great peripherals for the stretch run here- one who’s season numbers mean he’s probably unowned.

Carlos Mármol, RP, CHC: For my money, Carlos Mármol is the obvious choice to replace Ryan Dempster as the Cubbies closer. I don’t know why they’re so intent on removing a guy who has pitched well in the role and hasn’t had an ERA under 4.00 as a starter since 2000, but The Pinella works in mysterious ways. Carlos struck out two in a perfect ninth to earn the save Wednesday against the Rockies, the first of his career. So far he has a 1.03 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, a .189 BAA and 38 Ks in 26 innings. Those are stellar numbers, even if he doesn’t inherit the job. He has the best stuff of anybody in that pen even when Dempster and Angel Guzman return.

Rafael Soriano, RP, ATL: Soriano has a 2.87 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and .178 BAA. Current closer Bob Wickman has a 4.03 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and .263 BAA. Blubber Bob also had a terrible week, giving up three runs on Saturday and then blowing a save in a one-run game on Sunday. This isn’t exactly news though, he’s been hittable all year. While Wickman was on the shelf in May Rafael converted all four of his save attempts with style, putting up a 0.00 ERA, 0.12 WHIP and .038 BAA and cemented himself as the eventual closer if/when Wickman’s obesity comes back to haunt him. Wickman won’t lose his job just yet, but if the string of poor outings continues much longer Soriano is going to be very valuable. Rafeal’s peripherals make him worth owning in most leagues anyway.

Chad Billingsley, SP, LAD: A former first-round pick (24th overall), this kid has the stuff, but control has been a major problem so far in his young career. He’ll eventually be a very good starter for the Dodgers and I think it’ll be sooner rather than later. Billingsley threw seven innings without giving up a run in his most recent start as he continues to stretch out his arm in making the transition from the bullpen to the rotation. He did walk 19 batters in 42.2 innings coming into the game, so he’ll need to cut down on the free passes to be a fantasy starter. With his talent and working in a pitcher’s park as often as he will I don’t expect to see a huge departure from his season numbers (3.44 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 53K in 49.2 innings) as he adjusts to his new role. For those of you streaming pitchers, he also has the added bonus of RP eligibility.

Tim Lincecum, SP, SF: He’s back, and he needs to be universally owned. After a terrible stretch in early-to-mid June, he’s put together 14 scoreless innings. In his last start Tim fanned 12 batters over seven innings, giving up just three hits and no walks. No young pitcher in baseball has a better shot to give your team a Francisco Liriano-esque boost during the stretch, so buy low while you still can. Despite giving up all those runs and walks over the last month his 1.23 WHIP is still solid and the 72 Ks in 66 IPs is very impressive. There’s no way he should be a FA in any league, but if he is add Lincecum now so you can start him tomorrow versus the weak St. Louis offense.

Yovani Gallardo, RP/SP, MI: I’m not going to go crazy on the analysis here because I think you know how I feel about Yovani. I think he’s good. Very good. I just mention him because he’s getting dropped left and right after losing his spot in the rotation after Chris Capuano came back off the DL and in his first relief appearance he gave up four runs (three earned) in 2 2/3 innings Tuesday. Despite that rough outing he has a 3.68 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 21 K with 9 BBs in 22 innings. He was 1-0 with a 2.79 ERA in three starts before Capuano came back, and the guess here is that he’ll be back in the rotation within a month. He deserves it more than Claudio Vargas, who’s ERA has risen all four months of the season from 3.68 in April to 4.05 in May to 5.24 in June and now stands at 7.50 in July after giving up 5 runs in 6 innings during his last start.

Phil Hughes, SP, NYY: There’s a good chance that Hughes was dropped in your league after suffering a pulled hamstring and then a sprained ankle six weeks ago. He’s finally looking healed and I see no reason why he can’t pick up where he left off- in the 6th inning of a no-hitter. These are leg injuries, not arm problems, so if they have mended then Hughes is the same uber-prospect he was heading into the season (coming off a 1996 season with a 68/34 K/BB in just 146 innings between Single-A and Double-A ball) and deserves a roster spot in the coming weeks. Phil is scheduled to make his first rehab start Monday for Single-A Tampa after throwing batting practice Thursday without incident. Right now it looks like he’ll need about four rehab starts before rejoining the team, but when he returns he’ll still have that deceptive delivery, a mid-to-high 90s power fastball, two types of curve balls that clock in the low 80s and a hard slider.

Matt Garza, SP/RP: MN: Well, well, well. It looks like Terry Ryan is finally taking my advice, though perhaps a tad too late. The Sidney Ponson Blimp pulled a Hindenburg. It turns out Ramon Ortiz isn’t a very good pitcher. Scott Baker has been mediocre at best. Kevin Slowey needs more time to develop his offspeed pitches (ironic, I know). After trying every possible alternative, the Twins finally called up Matt Garza, one of the top ten pitching prospects in baseball. He threw two scoreless innings against the Yankees in his season debut this Monday and his next appearance will come tonight against the White Sox.

He’s so young that it’s no guarantee Garza will be fantasy viable, but his stuff is nasty and he deserves a chance to prove he’s made the necessary adjustments after a poor showing in 2006. Matt will be a number two or three starter in the MLB for his career, and could be a great end of the rotation guy for fantasy teams in 2007 down the stretch. As I’ve mentioned, Garza has absolutely dominated the minor leagues at every level and he has little left to prove there. The 23-year-old’s fastball hits 97 and his slider is just nasty. If he has indeed added a quality offspeed pitch, things will start to click and fantasy relevance will follow.