Empty the Bench

Happy 4th everybody, here’s hoping you all have a great day with the family and wake up with all ten fingers tomorrow morning. ETB is celebrating by taking a look at the firework-makers of football, the NFL’s top quarterbacks. While every pick of your league’s first round should be a running back, in the second round Peyton Manning will likely poke his equine face in somewhere. After that, it’s an elaborate game of cat and mouse between you and your league mates. Who’s the best QB left on the board? What’s the drop off between him and the next guy? Can you really afford to wait another round to pick your every-week starter? ETB ranks the top signal callers out there so you can be like a cucumber during the QB runs of your draft (as in ‘cool as a’).

I hate to force a pick based on positional need, so depending on the way my drafts pan out I’m targeting five QBs this season: Caron Palmer (Early 3rd round), Marc Bulger (Early-to-mid 4th Round), Jon Kitna (7th round and after), Philip Rivers (9th Round) and Matt Leinert (Consolation Prize). Here are the official rankings on the QBs to this point, but keep in mind that ETB reserves the right to make significant adjustments as the season draws nigh and we will also be releasing a composite set of fantasy rankings that will give you a good idea where exactly to target each of these signal callers.

1. Peyton Manning: Similar to the situation with Tomlinson at RB, Peyton is so clearly the best option at QB that there really isn’t an argument for taking anybody else. Peyton has a track record of incredible consistency and health to go along with huge production and there’s no reason that should change this year. In fact, with the significant losses the Colts suffered on defense during the offseason there’s a good chance this offense will be involved in even more shootouts this year.

1A. Carson Palmer: It may sound like blasphemy to some, but I think Carson Palmer is a good bet to approach or surpass Manning’s fantasy production this year. He finished with just 3 fewer TD passes and and 300 fewer yards a year ago, all while his surgically rebuilt knee was still affecting his accuracy through the bulk of the campaign. He put to rest concerns about his knee as the year went on and this offseason he’s been practicing without a brace. Chad Johnson and TJ Houshmandzadeh are one of the better receiving duos in the league and Rudi Johnson is more than capable, so the supporting cast is there. Here’s the kicker though: during the fantasy championships in weeks 14, 15 and 16 the Bengals play St. Louis, San Francisco and Cleveland.

3. Tom Brady: Brady has to be one of the most difficult QBs to project heading into the year, perhaps because the Patriots have added two of the most mercurial playmakers in football to the mix. After posting the finest first seven season of any WR in NFL history, I refuse to believe Randy Moss’ talent simply evaporated. It’s far more likely his passion went out the window, but playing with a first-class organization that has a great shot at a title and with a strong-willed coach should keep him in line. Donte’ Stallworth’s problems aren’t between his ears, but the talented wideout has a history of bad hammys. Still, we know what Brady brings to the table and the addition of two receivers of this caliber has to be a good thing. Expect to see the 3,500 yards and 24 TDs of a year ago rise into the 4,000 yards and 28+ TD range.

4. Drew Brees: I kept expecting to see Brees slow down last year, but it didn’t happen. He’s now put together three straight years of at least 24 TDs thrown, but the yardage totals went through the roof last season. He set a career high with 4,418, nearly 1,000 more than his previous high. There was some concern about that shoulder heading into 2006, but it went tout the window in week four when he put up his second 350-yard passing day of the season. There are some potent weapons around him, starting with the two second-year players Reggie Bush and Marques Colston. These guys can take it to the house on any given play and give Brees options short and deep. Add in the power game of Deuce McAllister and opposing defenses simply can’t key in on any aspect of the Saints attack. I don’t see the the loss of Joe Horn affecting this offensive juggernaut too much. The yardage totals may not be quite as high, but TDs in the high 20s should be in the offing.

5. Marc Bulger: When Bulger is on the field he’s shown an ability to pile up yards and fantasy points. With Steven Jackson emerging as the top receiving RB last year, Bulger’s numbers inflated to 4,300 yards and 24 TDs along with just 8 INTs. This year he’ll have an even more potent offense around him. For my money Randy McMichael is one of the three or four most physically talented TEs in football (along with Antonio Gates, Vernon Davis and maybe Kellen Winslow if he ever fully recovers) and should provide another great red zone target. Drew Bennett is a quick, tall receiver who can go out and get it. I don’t know why he didn’t get any respect in Tennessee, but the Volek-to-Bennett connection is one his former fantasy owners will always remember. With these two TD options added to the mix it’s hard not see increased production for Bulger- something like 4,450 yards to go with 27 TDs and 10 INTs. He’s still behind Brady and Brees because of the health concerns though.

6. Jon Kitna: The addition of wunderkind Calvin Johnson gives OC Mike Martz one more reason to lean on the passing game all season long. A team that figures to be behind most of the time with one of the four most physically gifted WR tandems in the NFL (alongside Arizona, Cincinnati and Indianapolis) is a recipe for fantasy production. He’s not being talked about as much this year, but Roy Williams has tremendous ball skills and is one of the best wideouts in the game. The yards were there last year (4,208) but the TDs (21) left something to be desired. That will change. I can’t see Kitna finishing below 25 TD passes with these weapons.

7. Donovan McNabb: McNabb may finally stay healthy and put together a great, complete fantasy season this year. If he does, it won’t be on one of my teams. I’ve seen too many fantasy seasons ruined by the frequent injuries those invested heavily in McNabb, even if he was the top player in fantasy before going down a year ago. Tellingly, the Eagles weren’t comfortable relying on him for too long either, drafting Kevin Kolb with their 36th pick. The loss of Terrell Owens was mitigated by the addition of Donte’ Stallworth last year, but now he’s gone too and this receiving corps looks shaky. Reggie Brown is a nice option, Kevin Curtis is a nice third WR and Brian Westbrook is always going to be active in the passing game, but there’s not much behind those three. Still, the Andy Reid’s Eagles will be passing 60% of the time this year and the opportunity for production will be there if Donovan’s health holds up.

8. Vince Young: There are some very serious questions about Young’s supporting cast right now, but the guy is just magic with a football. Over his career I’d hate to see this kind of talent turn into another Michael Vick, but in the short term I think Vince can get it done without a top-tier receiver. Watching his games last season and in college it was impossible not to see that he has it, a preternatural ability to see the field and make something good happen. Plus, those rushing TDs can make a fantasy line look nice in a hurry. Vince had 7 last year and this year’s over/under is 9. I’ll abstain from betting. He’s going in the 6th round right now and that’s far too high, but in the 8th round and after he’s a great upside pick- the Madden Curse be damned.

9. Philip Rivers: Rivers falls to 9th here, but through no fault of his own. It’s very possible he ends up as one of the top-8 QBs in fantasy football but there are simply 8 players who either have a higher upside or a more attractive track record. I’m a fan of Vincent Jackson and I can see him emerging as a true No. 1 WR this year. I actually drafted him in several leagues last year as a WR 5 and wasn’t disappointed. Antonio Gates is the best pass catching TE in the world and any offense with Ladanian Tomlinson is going to sustain drives and score points. If you intend to load up on WRs and RBs early, Rivers is a great safety blanket who should be good for around 24 TDs and 3,500 yards. How great is it that Rivers is ahead of Eli Manning at this point in their careers? I love it.

10. Matt Hasselbeck: Going into drafts last year Hasselbeck was an extremely popular pick, usually the 4th QB off the board. This year, not so much. He recently told local papers, “Right now I’m not strong.” That’s not what fantasy owners want to hear, especially in regards to a QB’s shoulder. The Seahawks also lost their most dynamic playmaker out wide, Darell Jackson, and their starting TE, Jeremy Stevens. On top of that, Shaun Alexander may never be quite right again. Oh, and the once-dominant offensive line is dinged up and looks pedestrian heading into the year. Right now I’m not touching this guy. I’ll fill in my backup RB and WR3 positions and let somebody else take the risk.

Missed the Cut:

Matt Leinart: Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald can make anybody look good, and Leinart is a talented player with a lot of experience playing under pressure and in a pro-style offense. This running game and offensive line will also stall in the red zone frequently, giving Leinart plenty of TD opportunities. Playing in the NFC West in nice place to be, too. I’m bullish on Leinart and he’s my safety valve in leagues where I end up loading up at RB, WR and TE.

Eli Manning: I have a love-hate affair with Manning Jr. As a football fan, well, I’m not a fan. But I see the fantasy potential, especially with Plaxico Burress and Jeremy Shockey being plus red zone targets. The absence of safety blanket Tiki Barber could be a huge blow to Eli this year. Barber frequently inflated Manning’s passing totals with spectacular runs after the catch and provided him with a sure-handed, easy target on blitzes. Eli clearly doesn’t like the spotlight and criticism that comes with playing in NYC and I don’t have a hard time imagining him coming unraveled this year.

Michael Vick: I know he produced terrific fantasy numbers last season, but I can’t see how a suspension isn’t looming. On top of that, new Federal laws could mean significant legal trouble for Vick. At this point, he’s being taken way too high considering the very real possibility he doesn’t contribute to your team in the first half of the season- or at all.

Tony! Toni! Toné! Romo: Romo was exposed late in the season as the inexperienced signal caller he is. Meanwhile, Terry Glenn is getting on in years and Terrell Owens has become a serious injury concern in addition to being a head case. It would be difficult for me to feel comfortable going into the fantasy season relying on Tony. Still, I could be wrong and Owens is fully capable of making any QB look very good. The Boys should be able to take some pressure off with Jones and Barber in the backfield as well.