Empty the Bench

Every borderline team in the Eastern Conference smells blood in the water. The once-mighty Pistons are in a state of flux, seemingly abdicating the conference throne in the midst of their prime, and everybody is taking notice. “If a truly mediocre team like the Cleveland Cavaliers can go all the way to the NBA Finals, then surely we can be a playoff team” is the popular sentiment. That mindset has caused a flurry of moves this offseason.

The Orlando Magic have signed Rashard Lewis to team with Dwight Howard, making them playoff contenders. The Charlotte Bobcats traded this year’s 8th overall pick Brandan Wright for Jason Richardson, making them playoff contenders. The Boston Celtics have traded Delonte West, Wally Szczerbiak and this year’s 5th overall pick for Ray Allen, making them playoff contenders. The thing is, many of these teams are right. We know the Chicago Bulls and Detroit Pistons (assuming Chauncey re-signs) will make the playoffs in the coming season. The Toronto Raptors and New Jersey Nets (assuming Vince Carter re-signs) are also very likely to make it. After those teams though, there is a gaping dearth of quality squads and all four of the remaining playoff spots up for grabs.

Boston has been in a state of perpetual rebuilding since the “glory” years for Paul Pierce and Antoine Walker, stockpiling draft picks and talented youngsters. They took a huge step toward a Win Today mentality on draft night in acquiring perennial All-Star Ray Allen. Allen is getting on in years and his ankles are starting to break down (thank you very much, Bruce Bowen), but for my money he’s still a first-team player and the NBA’s premier outside shooter. He’s a guy that has averaged 21.5 points, 4.6 boards, 3.9 assists, 2.4 3-pointers and 1.3 steals on 44.6% FGs and 88.8% FTs over his 12-year career and threatens a 25-5-5 season each year. He certainly got game. Here’s the big concern though: will Paul Pierce and Ray Allen be able to mesh?

These are two proud players who have been the unquestioned leader on their teams for their entire careers. On top of that, they seem to have an overlapping skill set. They both need the ball in their hands nearly every possession, they both thrive on the mid-range on out and take it to the hole for tons of free throw attempts, they’re both playmakers who like to handle the ball in big situations and they both like to take the big shot. They’re two swing men who are half small forward, half shooting guard. They excel because of their ability to create their own shots as well as find the open man. In fact, despite Pierce being more of a natural 3 with a stronger move to the basket, they’re eerily similar players with nearly identical statistics. However, they’re also low-maintenance pros who aren’t likely to have a collision of egos, so that bodes well. Still, as we’ve mentioned before, ETB would rather have seen the Celts trade away Pierce while he’s in his prime and plan for the next decade. Even if these two can play nice together, are the Celts a real title contender this year? I don’t think so. In the next three years? That’s still a major reach.

The hope here is that Al Jefferson becomes a dominating low-post presence on offense, and indeed he has the talent to be one of the top three or four power forwards in the NBA in that time span. But with these two dominating the ball outside, will Boston be able to feed it into Al Jefferson as much as they’d like to? And if not, what will be the effect on his development as a primary offensive weapon? It’s hard to see. The optimistic view holds Jefferson benefiting from Allen’s presence as nobody will dare double down on him now. The pessimistic view holds Baby Al as a player who showed dominating potential after the All-Star break and is suddenly asked to wait another couple of years to assume leadership.

Here’s another thing I’m very curious about: where does this leave Gerald Green, Tony Allen and Rajon Rondo? Tony Allen was a revelation filling in for the injured Pierce last season averaging 20.8 points, 5.2 boards and 3.4 assists on 50+% FGs in January before shredding his knee. And Allen was just one of the Celts who made a case for the boon in playing time that could have come with a move of Pierce. Gerald Green put up 16 points, 3.6 boards and 1.8 3-pointers as a starter in just his second year out of high school. I’m convinced the kid has superstar potential to go along with his superstar athleticism and feathery jumper. In addition to Green and Allen, Rajon Rondo looked very impressive during his rookie campaign. I wasn’t sold on the guy until mid-season, but he’s an extremely gifted ball handler and passer who has an incredible nose for the ball on defense. But will his growth be stunted and his contributions mitigated by the ball-dominating duo of Pierce and Allen? I’m not sure we can answer all of these questions by just thinking about them, we’ll need to see this team play 30 games before meaningful conclusions can be made, but the trade certainly raises some issues about the strategic planning of Danny Ainge for the next three, five and ten years.

From the Sonics perspective, this is a bittersweet move. Their two leading scorers over the last five season are both gone within the span of a week and the rebuilding is now in full effect. Ray Allen was the type of player who was a joy to watch regardless of the team’s fortunes. He was a consummate professional in all respects; an extremely polished offensive weapon who played the game the right way (whatever that means). Despite his loss, it’s a very understandable move. Nobody had fantasies of bringing a title home to Seattle in Allen’s prime so it makes sense to get maximum value for the guy today (*ahem* Kevin Mchale). The plan now is to win a couple of titles once Kevin Durant matures into one of the NBA’s best players three years from now. Netting Jeff Green in the deal was a major coup. This kid has phenomenal physical potential and pairs well with their new star as more of a real power forward, though they’re both flex-type players. Green is big, a great leaper and physically strong. He’s also a great passer who can score inside and outside as well as find the open man and there’s little doubt he’ll learn to play the 4 alongside Durant.

As hard as it is to believe, Wally Szczerbiak is a former All-Star but his days of pseudo stardom are over. While Wally World may be the starting SG coming into this season, he isn’t in the long-term plans and figures to make his biggest contribution by freeing up salary cap space down the road. The hidden gem here is West. Delonte is an oft forgotten member of this trade, but he could be a huge addition for the Sonics. The kid is still young, hustles every play and has a Swiss Army Knife type of game. He’s a nice defender, a good outside shooter, a good ball handler and a good scorer. He can play the two, but I think he’ll eventually be an NBA 1, so this likely means the writing is on the wall for Luke Ridnour. A Tommy Heinsohn favorite, I think West has the ability to make an All-Star team or two during his tenure in the Pacific Northwest.

Despite the positive spin I’ve put on the acquisitions, Seattle is still extremely short on big men. They’ve been spending lottery picks like Monopoly money on bigs and really have nothing to show for it. Chris Wilcox has the physical ability to play power forward or center, but he may be best served as a 6th man on the front line. It’s hardly an uncommon situation, but Seattle will be left searching for a true center that can at least rebound, protect the basket and guard the NBA’s better big men. In any case, they’ve laid some nice groundwork for their future and may only be another piece or two away from a playoff birth. Meanwhile, the Celts may make the playoffs this year, but their chances of winning a title in the long run did not improve significantly here.