Fantasy NFL: Platoons and Handcuffs
June 22, 2007
You can lock into your first-round and second-round running backs and hope they stay healthy, keep their jobs and produce at a high level for 16 straight weeks regardless of the matchup. That’s something you can do. And if you choose such a path, well, good luck with that. For the rest of us who have actually played in a fantasy football season before the backup running back stable is an essential part of our fantasy roster that we know will, more often than not, define our season. I almost always draft one or two backup running backs before filling out the rest of my starting lineup (aside from kickers and defense of course, which I don’t usually draft at all). Successful fantasy football teams are built around consistent, predictable point production and a deep RB pool is an irreplaceable foundation for that.
It’s said that making plans is a good way to see God laugh. There are few places where it’s more evident than in a fantasy NFL league. Football is a violent sport where the potential for injury to any player exists every practice and every game. Unfortunately, even premier backs face gauntlet defenses and constant injury risk throughout the season. Each year backups and relatively unknown backs, directly or indirectly, change the fortunes of all fantasy teams. That’s why we need to back our studs up and have backup plans for them. Once again, ETB has you covered with some of the most notable handcuffs and platoon situations. These are players who have major upside that you can buy on the cheap in most drafts. We won’t be covering the Maurice Jones-Drews of the world here because he’s obviously in a platoon worth investing in. His ADP is so high that there’s not much chance for a massive return on your investment. We will be covering guys like Kolby Smith, Mike Bell and Lorenzo Booker.
Platooners to Invest In:
DeAngelo Williams, Panthers
The plan right now is to have Williams split carries with DeShaun Foster, who was thoroughly unimpressive in 2006. There’s a good chance that could change in the next two months. The Panthers installed a new zone-blocking scheme that fits Mr. Williams’ skill set perfectly, mirroring the scheme he ran in at Memphis to great success. He’s also an elite physical specimen who has Stud RB written all over him. I love DeAngelo’s ability to cut a play back and make something out of nothing. His speed allows him to turn the corner like few others and his ability to make guys miss is incredible. You’ll want to invest in this young man.
Marion Barber III, Cowboys
I mentioned in my preview of RBs 12-22 that Barber has a legit shot at winning the Cowboy’s starting running back job outright. While the Big Tuna preferred Julius Jones and Jones remains the starter on the depth chart right now, this is going to be a platoon with a lot of fantasy potential. Jones is a fine back who’s capable of reaching the century mark on any given Sunday but I worry about his ankles and hit grit. With Barber, I worry about the opposing defensive backs. It’s a lot of speculation at this point, but if Marion were to win the starting duties outright in addition to the goal-line job that’s already his he would become an elite fantasy RB. Even playing second fiddle Barber was the 14th most productive RB in a Yahoo! default scoring format last season, so be confident with him at your No. 3 or 4.
Deuce McAllister, Saints
Deuce is only 28 years old, even if he seems 33 at this point. There are already two seasons of 325+ rushing attempts and a couple of surgeries under his belt, but I think this guy can still be productive. I don’t anticipate a Reggie Bush injury, but if that were to occur it’s easy to see McAllister resuming his stature as one of the top 10 running backs in football. In fact, he’s never been in an offense this potent even in the years when he was a consensus top-5 pick, and with Bush on the field last year he was a more than serviceable No. 2 in totaling 1,255 total yards with 10 rushing TDs. Don’t forget about Deuce-Deuce on draft day.
Adrian Peterson, Vikings
Peterson is an elite athlete with natural RB skills that has a big, fat “Injury Risk” sticker on his forehead. He was also drafted by a team that already has a starting running back (Chester Taylor) who had a great first season as a No. 1 by all accounts. Still, Peterson is an elite talent and certainly the most gifted of this year’s rookie backs. The Viking’s also have a phenomenal offensive line, particularly on the left side with Bryant McKinnie and Steve Hutchinson out wide and a bulked up Matt Birk in the middle. Those guys can make massive holes.
Chester Taylor remains the starter in name only, and at this point we have to predict a 50/50 split in touches with AD (Peterson has earned the nick name ‘All Day’ due to his work ethic) gaining more opportunities each week. The ViQueens totaled 1,820 rushing yards and 12 rushing TDs last year. They’re also starting the most raw QB in the NFL, Tarvaris Jackson, who will need a safety blanket and Peterson has been an outstanding receiver in camp so far. A Taylor injury or executive decision from Brad Childress and we’re looking at a complete stud, but AD should be a valuable commodity no matter what.
Handcuffs to Nab:
Jerious Norwood (Warrick Dunn)
Norwood has star potential. He’s as electric as an back in the NFL and Dunn just isn’t compelling anymore. I’d like to see Norwood as the starter right off the bat, but that might not happen. Still, there’s a good chance he assumes the duties early in the season and needs to be drafted ahead of Dunn due to his startling home run ability. If he were a clear-cut starter Jerious would be a consensus second-round pick and Norwood’s absurd 6.4 YPC average lead the NFL last season. You want this guy.
Ladell Betts (Clinton Portis)
I’ve talked about Portis’ numerous maladies and the likelihood he’ll break down. I don’t want anything to do with Clinton this year, but I’m absolutely bullish on Betts. In fact, despite the fact that he’s being drafted 4-5 rounds later on average, my money is on Betts having greater fantasy impact than Portis in 2007. He produced 1,599 total yards last year as a backup and with a full platoon potentially in effect I expect to see him get just as many chances this year. If Portis is Hurt, Bets will be a stud. If not, he’s still a very fine RB 3.
Michael Turner (LaDainian Tomlinson)
The ultimate in handcuff technology. If an owner is lucky enough to receive the first overall pick, he had better make sure he owns the San Diego rushing game all season. If anybody owns Ladanian Tomlinson and they don’t own Turner they’re tempting fate. They’re asking for frustration and anger. They’re the type of guy who always has an explanation for why your team did poorly, but they’ve made mediocrity a habit. Ah, but if you don’t own Tomlinson? Well, nabbing Turner is a great way to ruin somebody’s season and give your bench a healthy upside and trade value. Bold prediction: Turner is an early second-round pick in 2008.
Lorenzo Booker (Ronnie Brown)
Booker isn’t a guy getting much love in drafts right now, but there’s a good chance he’ll be picked up in 2007 and in deeper leagues he has to be handcuffed to Brown. He’s a third-round pick that has looked phenomenal in camp so far and was one of the most highly touted RBs in the nation coming out of high school. Cam Cameron is in Miami and their rushing game figures to be productive this season no matter what, but if Ronnie Brown is injured again it’ll be Booker inheriting his touches and running with them. Booker is going to be a productive starter at some point in his career and has sleeper written all over him.
Mike Bell (Travis Henry)
I hate to get involved in the Denver running game. It’s consistently one of the best in the NFL, I know, but it’s just too much of a headache and piece of mind is something I look for in draft picks. I like to draft guys I can count on or guys where I’m comfortable if they fail. That means I don’t take question marks in the first four rounds, which has recently precluded investing heavily in Denver’s backfield. However, if I were to take Travis Henry this season I’d make darn sure I grabbed Mike Bell with my last pick or two. He’s shown flashes here and there and Mike Shanahan is far too willing to bench a productive fumbler or struggling star. Henry has the potential to fit either mold in 2007 and if Bell becomes the starter he’s the steal of the draft.
Kolby Smith (Larry Johnson)
Ladies and gentlemen, you’re Super Sleeper of the Week. LJ and his agent have suggested recently that they would be willing to hold out if the Chiefs don’t give him a raise and long-term contract extension. That’s more than understandable considering he’s scheduled to make $1.7 million this season and he set the NFL record for carries last season with 416, but to a fantasy owner those factors just makes LJ a prime trade and injury candidate. I don’t think Johnson fits into the team’s long-term plans as they seem focused on acclimating Brodie Croyle to the speed of the NFL this season and building around the young QB from the ground up. Whether Johnson stays or goes Kansas City will be running a lot this season and Smith is a capable back who figures to be Johnson’s primary backup. It’s not necessary to draft Smith right now, but you better have him on your watch list and Johnson owners need to pull the trigger as soon as LJ limps off the field.
Posted by Andrew Thell on Jun. 22, 2007 at 12:34 am in NFL, NFL Fantasy News, Fantasy Rankings





