Empty the Bench

While the first-round picks are certainly critical, barring injury you’re going to get a contributor there. Savvy second-round picks are where the experienced and prepared fantasy owner begins to separate himself from the casual player. In all likelihood, you’ll be looking to lock up a quality RB 2 in this round and ETB has your back. As promised, here are the more difficult rankings of guys involved in platoons, aging fan favorites and some up and comers. Like I said yesterday, make sure to keep checking back as we’ll be updating these lists regularly and with increasing frequency as camps break and the NFL season draws nigh. Apologies for not going past the top 30 here, but we’ll get there.

Yesterday: RBs 1-11

12 Travis Henry: This is probably a little low for Henry after he came back from the dead last season, but I’ve been burned by Mike Shenanigans far too many times. Henry has a history of fumbling and Michael Edward Shanahan has a history of benching talented fumblers. Of course, the Denver rushing attack is a perennial juggernaut that seems capable of opening big enough holes for a microwaved corpse to rush for 1,000 yards. Henry has three seasons of 1,200+ yards and 9+ TDs under his belt, so if he stays on the field all year in this system a season of 1,400 total yards and 10 TDs looks like strong estimate. A downhill runner with decent strength and quicks, Henry should fit the Bronco’s system very well. Keep in mind that Henry didn’t become the Titans’ full-fledged starter until week 5 last year and that Vince Young stole a bunch of opportunities in the red zone, so there’s some very nice upside here.

13 Rudi Johnson: This is another guy you could make a case for anywhere after the 6th pick. Johnson is the clear-cut back in an offense that could lead the NFL in points, but he still has a limited upside. Johnson won’t be very active in the passing game, he’s at the age when RBs with his volume of carries typically start wearing down and he lacks the ability to score from long distance. Johnson also only averaged a meager 3.8 YPC last year and the Bengals were in the bottom third of the league in rushing attempts, something that doesn’t figure to change if they can’t get their defense in order. However, as far as consistency goes there are few RBs out there in Rudi’s class. He’s played in all 16 games for the last three years and had about 1,400 rushing yards to go with exactly 12 TDs in each of those seasons. His knees still cause me some concern, but Johnson is a low to the ground runner with nice strength.

14 Brandon Jacobs: Jacobs is my pick to be this year’s Frank Gore. His height and upright rushing style could make Jacobs and injury risk, but Eddie George got away with it for a few years. I love the combination of speed and size this guy has and RBs who figure to get a bulk of the carries between the 20s and on the goal-line are few and far between. He’s proven to be a very capable back in short yardage situations, but his track-star speed makes Jacobs a threat to score from anywhere on the field. I’m not an Eli Manning fan, but there’s no way Mr. Ed Jr. doesn’t improve this season. The retirement of Tiki Barber opens up a massive opportunity both in terms of carries and in the passing game and I expect to see Jacobs replace at least 80% of that production. Brandon is being severely undervalued in drafts and pre-rankings right now. He’s not a first-round pick, but don’t miss the boat in the mid-to-late teens.

15 Clinton Portis: Ugh. Clinton Portis has tremendous natural talent and he could have a major bounce back season, but he won’t be doing it for any of my teams. Portis’ small stature and heavy work load caught up to him in a major way last season and he left me high and dry in two leagues. It was also divulged that Clinton has developed tendonitis in his knee to go along with that separated shoulder and broken hand from 2006. On top of the injuries Ladell Betts proved to be a more than capable backup and made a strong case for a near split in carries during the 2007 campaign. With Jason Campbell at QB they’ll rely heavily on the running game but Betts could push for 30+% of the total carries and be more active than Portis in the passing game. The Redskins did rank 4th in rushing yards last season and Al Saunders is a great coordinator for the rushing game, but right now I don’t see Dr. I Don’t Know as more than a decent RB 2. I wouldn’t draft him this high, but it’s his current value.

16 Willis McGahee: I’ll admit to being a McGahee fan despite his numerous shortcomings (namely in picking up the blitz, staying healthy and learning his playbook). His combination of moves, vision, power and deceptive speed should serve the Ravens well. We also know how much Baltimore likes to ride a workhorse RB so Willis is likely to set a career high in touches. While he takes plays off and has a less than desirable attitude, I think McGahee is going to take the trade as a personal insult and a shot at his ego. He’s going to work hard this year to prove people wrong and establish himself as one of the elite RBs in the NFL. No, he won’t have the Jets to beat up on again this season but I still see McGahee as one of the better RB 2s out there.

17 Cedric Benson: I fully expected Benson to assume the lead rushing duties for Chicago around Week 8 last season and make a name for himself. It didn’t happen that way and Ced displayed some poor character along the way, but by the end of the season fantasy owners were seeing flashes of what the ultra-talented back is capable of. He’s just a tremendous athlete with all the necessary physical skills to excel for the Bears and I love to get a RB with a great defense and mediocre QB. His size and power mean that Benson will take all of the goal-line chances, and he showed some nice explosion late in the year. If Cedric gets his head screwed on straight he’s capable of 1,500 total yards and 12+ TDs. That’s a very aggressive estimate, but you have to love the upside at this point in the draft.

18 Maurice Jones-Drew: I mentioned it with Frank Gore and I’ll mention it again: don’t chase yesterday’s stats on draft day. I’m not suggesting that Jones-Drew was anything short of a revelation last year, nor that his stats were some kind of complete fluke. I am saying that he won’t match 2006’s numbers in 2007. I am a fan though. The guy runs like the illegitimate love child of a bowling ball and a lightning bolt and is nearly impossible to stop in the passing game. Unfortunately, the presence of Fred Taylor means you can’t count on Maurice to produce on any given week. There is a chance he can repeat because the Jags did finish among the NFL’s top 3 teams in rushing attempts, rushing yards and rushing TDs and could do the same this season. Still, he’s unpredictable and his combination of small stature and all-out running style also make him a serious injury concern.

19 Edgerrin James: New coach Ken Whisenhunt wants to give James a workload similar to last season (”If Edgerrin is getting around 325 carries, somewhere in that range … then we’re gonna have a lot of success”), so the opportunities will be there. The offensive line is also improved and Matt Leinert has a decent shot at being a middle of the pack QB. James is recovering from offseason arthroscopic knee surgery, but he has reportedly looked quick so far and he’s got to be eager to put that ugly 2006 behind him. I thought James would struggle in the desert, but I never imagined that his YPC would dip all the way down to a pathetic 3.4 and his rushing yards per game would be just 72.4 to go with 6 total TDs. He is a definite buy low candidate at this point in the rankings, but with the deck stacked against him the word on Edge is caveat emptor.

20 DeAngelo Williams: I have a major crush on DeAngelo. I think he has superstar potential. It drove me absolutely mad last year that John Fox refused to make him the featured running back. Every time I watched the Panthers Williams looked electric and DeShaun Foster looked pedestrian (at best). The plan coming into 2007 is to have the two split the workload once again, but I have a hard time imagining that holding up all season. The new zone-blocking scheme put in place is similar to the system De ran in at Memphis and should highlight Williams’ cutback abilities. He also reported to training camp in phenomenal shape at a svelte 217 pounds and is primed for a breakout season.

21 Marshawn Lynch: Here’s a real low risk/high reward pick. Those of you who took a QB or WR in the first two rounds should be hoping he falls. I’ve heard some very positive reviews of Lynch’s early performance in camp, scouts and coaches are impressed with his raw talent and work ethic and with McGahee out of town Lynch will see plenty of carries. RB is far and away the easiest position for an NFL rookie, so Marshawn ending up as a legit RB 2 is a distinct possibility. It is disconcerting how often QB J.P. Losman looks like a lost little boy at the shopping mall, and defenses have little to focus on outside of Lee Evans in the passing game so Lynch could be facing 8 men in the box with regularity, but he is a great talent with nice upside (and yes, I realize that I may be guilty of overusing that buzzword).

22 Marion Barber III: Unfortunately, fantasy football will never be able to fully emulate real football and the TD is always going to be overvalued in standard scoring formats. Work with it. Barber has a nose for the endzone like Jerome Bettis and his total fantasy production will outweigh his total contribution to the Cowboys if he stays in the short yardage role. There is also an upshot here. Being from Minnesota I had a chance to see Marion Barber light up college defensive lines and secondaries and I firmly believe this guy could be a successful featured back in the NFL if only he gets the chance and that could be finally coming this season. Julius Jones is the starter for now, but Barber makes a lot more sense to me as the every-down back with Jones coming in on third downs, long yardage situations and as a change of pace. Either way, Barber will be getting all of the goal-line carries again this season and is an absolutely fantastic RB 3 option with the potential to be a RB 1 or very strong RB 2 if Jones’ ankles give way.

Best of the Rest:

23 Jerious Norwood
24 Jamal Lewis
25 Carnell Williams
26 Julius Jones
27 Deuce McAllister
28 Ahman Green
29 Adrian Peterson
30 Ladell Betts