Empty the Bench

There are a lot of fans, both serious and casual, who didn’t want to see the Spurs in the Finals again. San Antonio has made a name as one of the most consistently boring champions in all of sport. Nevertheless, they’ve earned this, and the matchup is compelling on a number of levels. We have the established NBA elite, the closest thing today’s league has to a dynasty, versus the most exciting and hyped player since Kobe. It’s the old guard versus the potential new guard. It’s a franchise that’s built around team play versus a franchise built around one man. It’s the most quiet superstar you’ll ever see versus the most visible athlete on the planet. It’s teacher versus pupil, Greg Popovich versus Mike Brown. It’s a chance for that hyped player to prove he’s legitimate, that he can save the NBA (in terms of ratings, at least).

The cast of characters is set. Tim Duncan, the soft spoken, reluctant superstar who doesn’t know how to do anything but play hard and win. Bruce Bowen, the annoyingly effective villain everybody loves to hate. Tony Parker, Anderson Varejao and Manu Ginobili, the international stars who draw the eyes and fans of Europe and South America. Michael Finley, the man who starred on an offensive juggernaut and finally has a chance at a ring as a role player on a team that’s all about D. Zydrunas Ilgauskas, the consistently effective old man who has been with the Cavs since he was drafted in 1996 and watched as years of futility and injury have crescendoed into an opportunity to finally be a winner. Daniel Gibson, the young kid and afterthought second-round pick turned playoff hero. And, of course, the incomparable wunderkind who has taken a long-suffering franchise on his shoulders and reinvigorated the NBA’s international image: LeBron James.

For the Spurs to Win

“Defensively, they’re one of the best teams in the NBA. They work well together on the defensive end. You know if you beat one guy, another guy steps up.”
- LeBron James

I’m not going to mix words: the San Antonio Spurs are a better basketball team than the Cleveland Cavaliers. And at this point, we all understand their modus operandi. First, they’re gonna play some defense. Then they’re gonna run their offense through Tony Parker penetration and Tim Duncan in the post. After that, they might play some more defense. Once the double teams hit Tony and Tim, they’ll find Bruce Bowen on the baseline for 3-pointers, Manu Ginobili slashing to the hoop and spot-up shooter galore. Then, they’ll probably play some more defense after that. They’re predictable, they’re consistent, they’re methodical, they’re repetitive and they’re boring. They’re also a damn good team that works their ass off and has perfected a winning brand of basketball. It’s like a game of horse when you know you can hit that shot from behind the backboard and you know your buddy cant. It’s almost not fair. Almost.

What this means is that the series is San Antonio’s to lose. The pressure and the burden of proof isn’t on them. To win another title and cement themselves as the dynasty that defines this era of NBA basketball the Spurs just have to be themselves, do what they do. The first step will be forcing Cleveland to prove that it can stop Tony Parker from taking it to the basket for easy hoops and assists. The next step will be grinding down low. Then they break out those secret weapons outside. The rest of the series is a cruel game of Three-card Monte.

One fly in the ointment is thrown in though. One monkey wrench in the title machine. This is, of course, LeBron James (the Commissioner’s Office has mandated that NBA Finals preview articles have a quota on the usage of his name, so get used to it). If they can take James off of his game, the Cavs fold. And wouldn’t you know, the Spurs have a built in Anti-Superstar device. Bruce Bowen. It’s like that episode from the campy 60s Batman when The Joker challenged Batman to a surfing contest and secretly put Shark Spray in the water during Batman’s turn, only to be thwarted by the Shark Repellent Spray in Adam West’s utility belt (the Spurs are like Batman’s utility belt in a lot of ways, but that’s another column for another time). Bowen has made a career of guarding the opposing team’s best wing player. He does it with good defense, sure, but he also does it by pissing them off. Now that Dennis Rodman has retired, no player gets in opponents heads like Bowen. He pushes them when the refs aren’t looking, he rakes their arms, he puts his feet under them when they’re airborne, he gets in their ears. Being a young and fiery player, James might just pull a Frank Brickowski and fall for it. Speaking of Rodman, the WWF-esque (and prescient) grappling of Karl Malone and Rodman crossing midcourt in the Finals is an all-time favorite playoff moment of mine.

For the Cavs to Win

“Any way I can gain 40 pounds overnight? He’s so strong and young; it’s hard to believe that he’s 22 with the body of a 30-year-old. That creates problems. There’s nothing you can do about that. There are certain things you can do to adjust, but when people are just physically gifted and that talented, it creates a difficulty.”
- Bruce Bowen

As much as it pains me to reduce any NBA team to one player, more than any other suqad in the NBA (save perhaps the Lakers) the Cavalier’s hopes always hinge on the play of LeBron James. He needs to be the best player on the floor for at least four games, and he’s capable of doing it. Unfortunately, the Cavs don’t match up too well anywhere else on the floor. As he’s done masterfully thus far, James has to get teammates involved and build their confidence. This team is like a house of cards, a collection of fragile egos, role players and offensive sets carefully balanced on one man’s game. Fortunately that man’s game is very, very good and a reason for optimism on the part of Cleveland is the multi-faceted impact James can have. If the Spurs do decide to smother him, he can find the open man, play the passing lanes, pound the glass and control the game in those ways. If the Spurs then slack off of him, he can become a one-man show and carry the team. He’ll have to do one or the other though, because each game that isn’t decided by his positive contributions is a San Antonio win.

The key to stopping the Spurs offense is containing Tony Parker. The lightning-quick guard will get his, but the penetration has to be mitigated. If he’s allowed to penetrate at will, it sets up everything else the Spurs like to do on offense. It allows them to kick it back out to open and capable perimeter jump shooters, it allows them to feed the big men for easy buckets around the lane and it allows them to get on the offensive glass for second-chance points. In this endeavor, they’ll have two primary options: Larry Hughes and Eric Snow.

Hughes is obviously overmatched in the speed department, but he’s a capable man-defender who is rangy with long arms and is physically stronger than Parker. Eric Snow is far past his prime and at this point he represents a huge offensive liability, but he still knows how to play solid defense. Expect to see him more that usual, especially in late-game situations where he will sub in often just for defensive possessions. The duo will have their hands full, but of almost equal importance will be the other perimeter defenders resisting the temptation to double down on Parker each time he does get past them because Bowen, Barry, Finley and Ginobili are fantastic shooters when left alone and all know how to make timely cuts to the hoop.

Daniel Gibson played like a surprisingly legit second fiddle to LeBron on the offensive end during the latter stages of the Eastern Conference Finals, and his scoring spark will be crucial to keep San Antonio honest. As he’s proven, Gibson is capable of getting in an extended groove from outside and when he does that it prevents defenses from collapsing on James when he takes it to the rack. Another guy I’d like to see get hot is Donyell Marshall. The former 4th overall pick is a notoriously streaky player, but when he gets hot he can stroke ‘em from downtown. As the Cavs closed out New Jersey on the road in, Marshall hit 6 3-pointers and his outside marksmanship was a huge boost.

And speaking of streaky, Cleveland will need to get some kind of consistent contribution from mercurial power forward Drew Gooden. Sometimes he plays like a double-double machine (as he did versus Washington and New Jersey in these playoffs), and sometimes he just disappears (as he did versus Detroit). His partner up from, Big Z, will also play a critical role. Ilgauskas can hit open shots, and when defenders slack off of him and are forced to foul him recovering Z makes them pay at the line (80.7% FTs this season). By now a trend should be emerging: there’s Lebron James, and there are role players. The burden will be placed squarely on James’ shoulders, but he doesn’t stand a chance unless these guys do what is necessary to take the unrelenting defensive pressure of San Antonio off of him. If the role players do their jobs it will be a great series. If they don’t it’ll get ugly in a hurry, and everybody will be openly speculating what LeBron should have done differently. They can do it though. We saw a very capable team in those Eastern Conference Finals, one that was a few crunch time missed shots from winning all six contests.

In’a Final Analysis

It may sound reductionist and base to say this, but the way the series is officiated will go a long way toward determining this season’s NBA champ. I don’t mean it in a ‘David Stern wants Dwyane Wade to win and by golly, Dwyane Wade is gonna win’ sort of way. The Spurs play an extremely physical brand of defense inside and out and that leaves them at the mercy of the officials. While San Antonio tends to bend the rules on D, they’re well within their rights to do so as long as it’s being allowed by the officials. However, when the game is being called tight (as the refs are well within their rights to do) the Spurs are largely handcuffed. Such was the case in game 3 of the Western Conference Finals: Tim Duncan and Bruce Bowen got into foul trouble early for tactics that are generally allowed in playoff basketball and as a result the Spurs were neutered. The Jazz won by 26 points while Carlos Boozer and Deron Williams combined for 58 points.

What makes officiating an even greater threat to San Antonio is the fact that LeBron James will get star treatment this series. As the league’s most marketable product on their largest stage he has to, right or wrong. It would be a disaster for the NBA if the world of casual sports fans finally decided that basketball were must see TV again, only to tune in and watch Bruce Bowen check, grab and claw LeBron on offense and Manu Ginobili flop early and often on defense to force James out of the series. I’m not predicting any specific nepotism, but I do not envy the officials. No matter how they call these games, their performance will be enormously criticized- even for a championship series. For fans on both sides, thank goodness Joey Crawford is out of the mix.

All of that said, let’s get to the heart of the matter, the thing that will decide this series: experience. More than in baseball and more than in football playoff experience in basketball is critical to playoff success (sorry, I don’t watch Ice Soccer so I don’t really know if it’s the case there). The Spurs are the embodiment of that experience and the savvy and understanding that is borne from it. They know games tend to be decided in halfcourt sets, and they thrive in them. They know physical defense is rewarded, and it’s a forte of theirs. A consistent, low-post scoring presence is generally critical (Jordan-led teams aside), and they have the best of the last decade in Duncan. Games are won and lost on poor time and ball management, and they avoid and capitalize on those errors like no other.

The LeBrons, er, the Cavs have their work cut out for them. I expect to see San Antonio play like the consummate playoff pros that they are, and I expect to see them win. But you know what? I’m glad. I don’t want to see anybody get a ring easy (*ahem* Antoine Walker, Jason Williams, Alonzo Mourning, James Posey, Gary Payton). If LeBron pulls this off, it won’t be a victory against a proverbial straw man. It will be an epic achievement. It will signify a true changing of the guard. Most importantly, it’ll be a hell of a lot of fun to watch.

Prediction:
Spurs in Six Games

Possibly Related Content:

1. Spurs Flop to Victory; Cavs Sweep Wizards


2. San Antonio Spurs Win NBA Playoff Game


3. San Antonio Spurs Usurp the King’s Throne


4. The San Antonio Spurs are 2007 NBA Champs


5. NBA Playoffs Dance: Spurs vs. Suns