Empty The Bench
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Fantasy MLB: Nine Closer Positions to Watch

May 22, 2007

Angel RisingThere isn’t a fantasy baseball player out there who couldn’t use a few more saves at this point in the season. It’s always a good feeling waking up in the morning and seeing a few ‘1’s in that ‘S’ column. Like the ever-elusive steal, we’ll use multiple positions on our roster just for the chance at a handful more. A month and a half into the season, several closers have already been injured or lost their jobs outright, generating new sources of saves. No doubt, those have already been scooped up in your league. ETB takes a look at nine situations that could keep you a step ahead in the chase for saves.

Chicago Cubs

The big news out of Chicago today is Lou Pinella’s announcement that current closer Ryan Dempster will become a starter in the coming weeks in a move to bolster the rotation. In the mean time, he has been asked to mentor 24-year-old Angel Guzman who will then take over the job. While Dempster has a mediocre 4.43 ERA, he has converted 9 of 10 save opportunities this year while posting a 1.03 WHIP and 21 Ks in 20.1 innings. That makes the timing of this seem a little bizarre, especially when you consider that Ryan hasn’t had an ERA under 4.00 as a starter since 2000.

Whatever, fantasy owners just want to own the guy who finishes games for the Cubs. Anybody who owns Dempster should be handcuffing Guzman to him immediately. Guzman had a 7.39 ERA in 56 innings last season, but he does have the stuff to finish games. The only question is, does he have the mental makeup?


Atlanta Braves
The Fat Man from The Jake returned from the DL on Tuesday and took the closing duties back from Rafael Soriano, and Soriano certainly kept the seat warm for him. While Wickman was on the shelf Rafael converted all four of his save attempts in May with style. He’s put up a 0.00 ERA, 0.12 WHIP and .038 BAA this month and cemented himself as the eventual closer when/if Wickman’s obesity comes back to haunt him. There was some thought of giving the job to Mike Gonzalez, who did a nice job in the role for Pittsburgh last season, but he’s their best lefty out of the pen and they’d like to keep him in middle relief. Gonzalez was also showing decreased velocity before hitting the DL last week, further securing future save opportunities for Soriano. Rafeal’s peripherals make him worth holding onto for the moment anyway, and in deeper leagues he’s worth speculating on for future saves.

Cleveland Indians

Borowski’s Losing ItJoe Borowski’s claim on the job is tenuous at best, and the fact is he’s simply not that good. He blew just his second save of the season this week but those numbers are UGLY: 7.94 ERA, 1.53 WHIP .279 BAA and a 2/1 K/BB. Certainly are not closer numbers. One or two more outings like this week’s blown save, where he gave up 4 ERs to Oakland, and he’ll likely be out of a job. Fernando Cabrera looked stellar earlier this season, but he’s stumbled of late and his ERA has risen to 4.24. That likely means that Rafael Betancourt will inherit the job if Borowski doesn’t shape up. Betancourt is worth a speculative add in AL-only leagues and ultra-competitive mixed leagues. I’m not buying yet, but he’s on the watch list.

Houston Astros

Dan Wheeler has been solid as the Astro’s closer thus far, converting all 9 of his save opportunities since he was named Brad Lidge’s replacement (though he did blow one on April 3rd). Wheeler has given up a few home runs and made some games closer than they needed to be, but on the whole he’s done an excellent job. That was to be expected though, he’s had an ERA below 2.52 and a WHIP under 1.15 in each of his three seasons since coming over from the Mets organization. So far, he just hasn’t given Phil Garner any reason to consider going back to Brad Lidge.

So why am I talking about this situation? Well, Lidge’s stellar track record prior to Pujol’s moonshot in the NLCS two years ago simply can’t be ignored. He was perhaps the best closer in baseball for a few years, and he still has the same physical stuff. His ERA is back down to a respectable 3.18 and there are already some in the Astro’s organization whispering about moving him back. His value to the team and on the market would dramatically improve. Wheeler has earned the job and he’ll have to blow a few saves in ugly fashion in order to lose it, but Lidge’s presence and recent play will cause Garner to have a shorter leash with Wheeler.

Kansas City Royals

It’s a common fallacy that you don’t want closers on bad teams. But think about this: when the Royals win games, how often to they win by more than 3 runs? Not too much. Perhaps that’s why they’re 10th in saves as a team, and the Arizona Diamondbacks lead the league (I told you Valverde was for real, didn’t I?). Dotel has been activated from the DL, and the Royals are saying they plan to ease him back into the closer’s role. That means Joakim Soria should still be good for another couple of saves for the time being, but he’s starting to implode. Still, don’t drop him just yet- Dotel could easily aggravate the injury yet again before he can displace Soria.

Dotel was a popular sleeper coming into this season after a strong spring, but his oblique strain has bumped him off of a lot of radars. He’s worth an add in competitive 12-team and AL-only leagues right now. There’s also some speculation that Doc Oct will be dealt to a contender before the deadline, so he could have a ton of late-season value (I’m looking in your direction, head-to-head players). Oh, and again, DO NOT drop Soria just yet.

Oakland Athletics

He’s Super NiceHuston Street, the 2005 American League Rookie of the Year, is on the shelf with pain in his right ulnar nerve. He’ll be eligible to return a week from today, but the kid still hasn’t thrown a pitch since going on the DL. He’ll start throwing this week, and if he’s pain free we can expect to see Street back in a hurry. However, if he experiences more discomfort there is a very real possibility he’ll be going under the knife. I know, it sucks.

Justin Duchscherer will be filling in for the time being, and he was pretty decent doing that last year. He’s worth an add in all formats. Unfortunately, he was all set to go on the DL himself with an ailing hip before duty called. He got a cortizone shot and should be OK to close out some games this week if need be. Until Duchscherer is able to pitch save duties will fall to Alan Embree, Kiko Calero and Jay Witasik, but I don’t recommend adding any of them. They all looked pretty bad in the 9th inning last week, but I guess Calero would be the guy they turn to permanently should Street and Duchscherer be unavailable for a long stretch.

Philadelphia Phillies

Moving Brett Myers was a stupid decision. I mean, it was REALLY stupid. But I’ve given my rant on this. There’s no way that Philly will be maximizing Myer’s value if he only manages to pitch 70 innings this year, but more and more it’s looking like he’s out of the rotation for good this season. The Phillie’s loss is a fantasy player’s gain because Myer’s is suddenly one of the most valuable relief pitchers in all of baseball.

While it’s a sticky situation having Tom Gordon lose his job due to injury, he wasn’t pitching well and I think Philadelphia will be far better off with him performing 8th inning duties. Gordon could also be on the move to a team desperate for closer experience, so keep an eye on The Inquirer’s sports section. If there’s any chance you can land Myers cheap, do it now. Maybe his owner in your league thinks he’ll lose his job when Gordon comes back. It ain’t gonna happen. I’ve had a chance to see Brett close out some games and he’s been dominant. The on-screen radar gun hit 98 versus Toronto this weekend, and he has a 0.73 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and a measly .140 BAA over the last three weeks. Ill.

Texas Rangers

Eric Gagne is back, recording his second save of the season this week while still not allowing a run this season. Call me crazy, but I’d still rather have Akinori Otsuka. I just can’t imagine Gagne returning to his dominant form of 2002-04, let alone staying healthy the rest of the season. His velocity is way down and he’s a perpetual injury risk. I urge everybody to hold onto Otsuka or pick him up where available. Gagne certainly has some value right now, throwing four scoreless innings with a W and S since returning. He is the Texas Rangers closer right now. Just don’t get too comfortable.

The Guy Knows How to Win

Toronto Blue Jays

Jeremy Accardo recorded his 4th save of the season tonight, and he’s looking locked in right now. Jason Frasor was the first choice of Toronto skipper John Gibbons, but he clearly didn’t have the psychological makeup of a closer. Of course, Accardo’s probably gone in any kind of competitive league. If not, grab him now of course. BJ Ryan is out for at least th rest of this season and Accardo should remain the closer for the remainder of 2007. He’s now pitched four times in the last five days, and it looks like the Jays are going to lean on him. Accardo still represents a great buy low candidate though because very few are valuing him as a decent closer on a team that should eventually provide plenty of opportunities.

You want to stay ahead of the game though? Casey Janssen is next in line if Accardo falters. Janssen hasn’t been racking up the Ks, but he sure has been effective. With a 0.84 ERA and 1.03 WHIP on the season he’s worth keeping an eye on, especially if Gibbons wears Accardo out.

Posted by Andrew Thell on May. 22, 2007 at 11:23 pm in MLB, MLB Fantasy News

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