Empty the Bench

It’s only fitting that in the Eastern Conference, where the bottom few seeds bore passing resemblences to lottery teams, the top two teams are all we’re left with. The Detroit Pistons, the East’s #1 team record-wise and overwhelming favorite to advance to the NBA Finals, are now in rarified company having reached their fifth straight Conference Finals. Just south of them in Michigan’s ugly stepsister state, the Cleveland Cavaliers haven’t gone this far in the playoffs since the 1991-92 season, when they lost to Michael Jordan’s Bulls in the Conf. Finals 4-2.

Last year, of course, these franchises met in the second round, with Cleveland coming this close to pulling off the big upset and sending the Pistons home in six games. Veteran poise and better talent ultimately helped Detroit through the adversity, as they won an elimination game on the road in Cleveland, then wrapped it up in relatively easy fashion back at the Palace. Yes, they won, but it’s a series that should have been over in five, and by failing to put the Cavs away early, the struggling Pistons tiredly limped into their Conference Finals matchup with the Miami Heat, lost the first game, and never really threatened to reseize control and get back in it.

It was an embarassing end to one of the best regular seasons in NBA history, and you can bet the Pistons haven’t forgotten what happened last year against the Cavs. Revenge? Not really. Detroit will more be out to drive home the fact that they were the far superior team last year that merely went through a poorly timed slump… and that this year they’re still the better team and won’t struggle like last time.

Cleveland, of course, feels like they learned a lot from last year’s playoff clash with Detroit, and as Lebron recently said, undoubtedly “think that’s going to help [them] get over the hump.” The Cavs were dealt an incredibly favorable path to the Conference Finals, scooting into the second seed spot on the last day of the regular season and drawing the insipid Washington Wizards in Round One. After sweeping aside that rubbish in four (rubbish, of course, because they were without All-Stars Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler), the Cavs drew the veteran, determined New Jersey Nets.

‘Twas a truly ugly series, certainly not one worthy of national television coverage, but it was what it was and after wrapping it up in six games Friday night, the Cavs clearly weren’t concerned with what it looked like to get there. A series win is a series win, and now they get their shot to prove that last year’s tangle with Detroit was but a precursor for bigger and better things this season.

A rematch of last year’s conference semi-finals. Two teams out to prove they’re better than last year. Two teams confident they’re ready to take the next step towards NBA greatness. One bonafide superstar surrounded by a gaggle of solid role players vs. arguably the best starting five in the NBA, including four players who’ve been to the All-Star Game. Empty the Bench takes a look at the Eastern Conference Finals matchup between the Detroit Pistons and Cleveland Cavaliers, points out a few keys to the series, and gives you our prediction for how it’ll all turn out.

Backcourt:

Chauncey Billups and Rip Hamilton should have one word on their mind in this series: domination. They shouldn’t expect anything less from themselves against the overmatched Cavaliers backcourt, and after a challenging six games against the Bulls’ Kirk Heinrich and Ben Gordon, they should be able to loosen up a bit, not worry as much about potentially fatal high pick-and-rolls, and focus on shooting the lights out and getting to the free-throw line.

Billups has undoubtedly proven himself to be the catalyst of this Pistons’ offense. Against the Bulls, especially, when Billups found himself on the bench due to foul trouble, Flip Saunders’ normally fluid offensive sets grinded to a near halt. Through the first two rounds, Billups is leading his team in per-game averages for points (20.5), assists (7), and steals (1.4). Look for him to at least maintain, if not exceed, those numbers against Cleveland.

Hamilton struggled with his shot at times against Chicago, but while Cleveland is clearly one of the top defensive teams in the league–in fact, they’re leading the playoffs so far by allowing just 87.1 a night–he should be able to get himself open for uncontested jump shots. If he’s putting up over 20 points per, as well as tacking on 4 or 5 assists and a three-pointer here and there, the Cavs are going to be in a world of hurt.

For Cleveland, head coach Mike Brown has finally settled on and come to peace with Larry Hughes starting at the point and Sasha Pavlovic at the two. Hughes has held up surprisingly well so far, on paper, averaging about 16 points, 5 boards, and 3 assists a game. Still, as always seems to be the case with Hughes in the postseason, his shooting percentage is just unacceptable at 36%. That he put that number up against much lesser competition than he’ll find against Detroit should be a frightening thing for the Cavs. If the Pistons can mostly hold Heinrich and Gordon in check, don’t think for a second that Hughes will suddenly catch fire a la NBA Jam in this series.

Given the lack of backcourt depth behind him, it’s crucial for him to stay out of foul trouble, keep his head in the game, and keep taking open shots when he has them, regardless of whether or not the previous ones were falling. If he has problems containing Billups, look for the veteran Eric Snow to log significantly more minutes than the 17 he’s averaged thus far in the postseason. His offensive output is virtually nil, but he’s been utilized in the past on Billups because of his size and savvy.

Doubling Cleveland’s backcourt trouble is Sasha Pavlovic, who has earned his spot in the starting lineup but can absolutely not be counted on to come up big in this series. Remember, the Cavaliers haven’t been particularly challenged yet by a well-rounded, solid opponent, and yet they’re still waiting for their first out-and-out dominate performance. Through the first two rounds, Pavlovic is averaging 9 points, 2.4 boards, 2 assists, a steal, and–here’s comes the damning numbers–38% FG and 30% from beyond the arc. That’s just not very good for a guy who’s playing almost 30 minutes a night. Granted, we all know who’s counted on to carry this offense, but Pavlovic will have to do better than that against Detroit just to stay pace with his quicker, more athletic, more playoff-tested opponents.

Without question, Detroit has a major backcourt advantage they’ll look to capitalize on early and often as the series wears on.

Frontcourt:

You’re going to hear a lot about Tayshaun Prince in this series, the Pistons’ starting small forward who possesses one of the most solid all-around skill sets in the league. The late first-round pick seems to do his best work in the postseason, and it’s no coincidence that in each of his five years in the league, his team has advanced to the conference finals. He can shoot the long ball with a high percentage, knock down mid-range jumpers, get to the hole for easy dunks and layups, and perhaps most importantly back down just anybody in the post to set up his sweet hook shot. After containing Luol Deng in the second round, Prince will again be called on to guard another guy who’s known as a decent offensive talent in Lebron James.

However, much like the old Bad Boys used to do in the postseason against Michael Jordan, Prince will get a lot of support from his teammates in doing whatever they can, collectively, to harass, bother, and frustrate James. Obviously, when it comes to the Cavs, if you can shut down James you should be able to come out victorious. Another thing to keep an eye on will be just how much Flip Saunders runs sets designed to isolate Prince on the post with James. King James is a solid defensive player, but the goal is to make him work on both ends of the court, regardless of how well he defends Prince.

As ‘Sheed Wallace goes, so goes the Pistons, and aside from a few expected temper tantrums against Chicago, Wallace has been as focused as he ever has since joining Detroit in the ’04 season. Perhaps moreso than any other NBA player, Wallace can waltz through the regular season, flip the switch in late April, and re-establish himself as one of the league’s top power forwards. Wallace is a hated man in Cleveland (due to his hard foul on Big Z last year), so you know the crowd will be revved up and directing the bulk of their venom at the enigmatic heart of the Pistons. Fortunately for Detroit, those are the exact kind of situations ‘Sheed thrives on.

Chris Webber rounds out the starting frontcourt, and should rebound from a mostly dismal series against Chicago, one which saw him not score a single point in Games 2 and 3. The lateral movement obviously isn’t there like it used to be, but Webber can still stretch a defense with the mid-range jumper and, bad knees and all, is still quicker than Big Z. Look for him to get the ball high in the post and look to drive, dish to cutters in the lane, or pull up from the top of the key. He could have trouble with Anderson Varejao when the Great Brazilian Flop checks in.

Let’s be honest: in terms of overall talent and playoff experience, the Cavaliers don’t hold a candle to the Pistons. Fortunately for Cleveland, however, they do have the best player on the court in this series in Lebron James. In last year’s series against Detroit, James was mostly ineffective until he figured out that shooting jumpers wasn’t working, and that driving and getting to the hole for either layups, fouls, or passes to wide open teammates was. And that’s really where this series will turn out to be a short one or a long one. Thus far in the postseason, James has put up respectable if not world-beater averages: 26 points, 7.8 boards, 8 feeds, 1.4 steals, and 42% FG.

He’s still struggling somewhat from the free-throw line, however, at 78%. The free-throw line is undoubtedly weighing heavily on the minds of Pistons fans when it comes to James. It’s no secret that star players who are aggressive in driving to the basket will get the benefit of the doubt when it comes to referee whistles, so it’ll be up to Lebron to remember that, and up to the Pistons to stop it from happening and, when it does happen, to keep their cool if and when defenders are called for ticky-tack fouls. It’ll take nothing less than James’ best effort night in, night out, for his team to win this series.

Drew Gooden and Zydrunas Ilgauskas are polar opposites as far as what they bring to the table for Cleveland. Gooden is a high-energy guy averaging just over 12 points and just under 10 boards a game in the postseason. He’s not much of a shot blocker, but when he’s playing well Gooden can do a lot for his team’s intangible factor, tipping rebounds out to the guards, chasing down loose balls, and getting putbacks on missed jumpers. The putbacks and dunks are the biggest reason he shoots a high percentage from the field, but he can step out and hit shots, just not consistently.

Ilgauskas is out there for his size and skills in the post. For a seven-footer with little foot speed and shot-blocking ability, Big Z can still score, averaging just over 14 points a game on 54% shooting. He’ll need his sweet stroke from the baseline to be working in this series, and it’ll be interesting to see who Flip Saunders matches up on him. Webber will probably draw the assignment early, but Wallace could switch up from time to time to give the big man a different look. If there’s one thing the Cavaliers frontcourt could have on Detroit’s is hustle. The Pistons have a tendency at time to over-relax themselves and give up second-chance points, offensive boards, and loose balls more often than they’d like. Gooden, James, and Varejao need to have their motor runnin’ at full speed throughout the series.

Give the overall edge to the Pistons here, but it’ll get real interesting if James gets off to a fast start in the series, gets his defenders in foul trouble, and frustrates Detroit with his aggression. It’s all about energy and hustle for Cleveland.

Bench:

Consider Antonio McDyess a sixth starter for the Pistons, as he’s only averaging about 2 minutes less than Webber so far in the playoffs. His shooting has been uncharacteristically bad since the end of the regular season, as he’s posted a 31% average from the field through two rounds and less than 6 points a night. Dice is too good a shooter to let that become a semi-permanent trend, and we fully expect him to snap out of it at some point in this series and give his team an offensive boost off the bench. He does lead the Pistons in rebounds per game, however, with 8.4 a night.

Carlos Delfino is seeing about 10 minutes a game in the postseason, but at this point in his young career you never know if you’re going to the impact player or the invisible man imitation. The Pistons will be happy if he can just contribute solid defense, a few spot-up jumpers, and a few steals. It’s anyone’s guess whether Flip Murray or Lindsey Hunter will see more time behind Billups in the backcourt–it all depends on the situation. Neither is especially consistent, but Hunter has a better track record in big games and big situations.

Jason Maxiell is a monster; when he’s on the floor, gather your children close lest he reach through your TV screen, grab them, and eat them. Look for him to get more than the 8 minutes a night he’s averaged thus far, especially when Varejao checks in for Cleveland. If there’s one guy on the Pistons who can consistently match and exceed the Brazilian’s tenacity, it’s Maxiell.

For Cleveland, it’s mostly slim pickings. The aforementioned Varejao is logging almost 20 minutes a night in the playoffs, but he hasn’t exactly been the force Mike Brown has hoped he’d be. Fortunately, the Cavs haven’t really needed that yet, but against Detroit, Varejao *must* step up. Last year, he was successful at frustrating a gimpy Rasheed Wallace, but it’ll be interesting to see what he can do with Wallace at full strength.

Rookie point guard Daniel Gibson hit some big shots down the stretch in Game 6 in New Jersey to help his team close out the series, but he’ll likely give up some of his minutes to Eric Snow, who’ll try to man up with Chauncey Billups and knock down open shots when he has ‘em. I’ve seen Snow come up big in situations like this in the past, but I wonder how much he really has left. Donyell Marshall will trot out there to chuck up three-pointers from time to time, and it’s obviously a huge bonus for the Cavs if he’s actually making them (40% thus far in the playoffs). After these three and a half, forget about it.

At the End of the Day….

It’s not a good thing for Cleveland that their chances of pulling off the upset hinge on the play of one guy. It’s not often you see a team with a makeup like this in the Conference Finals. If Lebron James falters anywhere along the way, the Cavaliers will lose. Plain and simple. If he plays like the superstar advertised across the globe, and if his teammates step up and follow his lead, there’s no question we could have a long series in store.

But that’s just not going to happen. If the Pistons hadn’t been stretched to the limits in last year’s playoffs by this Cavs team, I might think Detroit would take a few games off during this series and make it go longer than it should. But that did happen last year, and the Pistons will be out for blood to prove that Cleveland still has a long way to go before they can realistically compete with them. The clock is ticking for the core of this Pistons team in their quest to earn another championship ring, so don’t think they won’t come out focused, hungry, and determined. Come June 7, your Eastern Conference representative will be the Detroit Pistons. Again.

Pistons in five

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