Empty the Bench

The second round of this year’s playoffs is full of compelling matchups, but this one takes the cake. Neither the Utah Jazz nor the Golden State Warriors were expected to be in the Western Conference Finals, but one of these teams will be. The resurgence of Jazz basketball and breakout season of Deron Williams are great stories, but Don Nelson’s Warriors are the story of the playoffs thus far. Nobody can be as pleased with the way things have worked out as Nelson himself. He takes over a raw team and guides them to the playoffs, and in the first round he gets to face off against his former boss and protégés.

After Nelson drafted Dirk Nowitzki and turned him into a star, coached Mark Cuban’s franchise from bottom feeder to perennial contender and mentored Avery Johnson into his role as head coach, he left on bad terms- especially with Cuban (who still won’t speak to Nelson to this day). Well, Don emasculated all three of them, especially Dirk, in front of everybody while masterminding perhaps the biggest upset in NBA playoffs history as his eighth-seeded Warriors knocked off a one seed with the league’s best record. And there’s more to this tale of redemption. When the season began, Golden State was in the midst of a 12-year playoffs drought, the longest in the league. Guess who was the last coach to take them past the regular season? Nelson.

Cinderella will be in a dog fight with Jerry Sloan’s Jazz, who are in the second round for the first time since their Stockton-Malone heyday in 2000. These teams were 2-2 in the regular season series and played some great games. Last round Sloan faced off against Jeff Van Gundy, who had no problem slowing the game down, but this round he’ll come up against a bit more resistance. There may not be two coaching styles in the NBA more diametrically opposed than those of Nelson and Sloan, which should make for some entertaining chess matches. Sloan needs to control every aspect of the game and has his Jazz playing a very deliberate brand of basketball, while Nelson preaches barely-controlled chaos. With Utah giving up just 87.3 points a game defensively and Golden State averaging 105.2 per, something has to give.

Backcourt:

All eyes will be on the point guards here. Deron Williams has continued a strong sophomore campaign and developed into one of the premier points in the league, but he’s still young and looks raw at times. However, he did have 20 points and 14 assists in Utah’s Game 7 victory over Houston, and played very well for a bulk of the series. Meanwhile, Davis has been an absolute bull and the best all-around player in the playoffs, scoring 25 points per game. Deron Williams is physically one of the stronger points around and that bodes well, but Chauncey Billups may be the only guard who actually compares to Davis in the strength department. Add in the fact that Davis is a freak athlete who’s been around the block a few times and Williams could really be overmatched. Sloan (Yoda) has developed Deron (Luke) into a point who is polished beyond his years and finished second in the NBA in assists, but I’m not sure he’s ready for a matchup like this (Vader?).

Meanwhile, former point guard Derek Fisher will be lining up at the two for Utah and brings great playoff experience and savvy, but looks to be way too small to compete with Golden State’s cadre of long athletes on the perimeter. They can throw out any combination of Stephen Jackson, Jason Richardson, Mickaël Piétrus, Matt Barnes and Monta Ellis along with Davis and have mismatches all over the court. They’re all great athletes, they can knock down outside jumpers as well as they take it to the hole and they’re huge. Several of those guys will be playing SF most of the time, but they should still make it difficult to keep Fisher on the court. Gordan Giricek doesn’t represent an attractive alternative, especially defensively. With Richardson on fire after he averaged 19.5 points and shot 51 percent in the first round, this is gonna be trouble.

Front Court:

This is where Utah can make their hay. They have two All-Stars, a former All-Star and two role players; all of them can take advantage of the Warrior’s weak frontcourt. Mehmet Okur provides the outside shooting that makes the Jazz offense dynamic when he’s hitting. He’s also the only legit answer they have for the rapid-fire, outside scoring of the Warriors. But Carlos Boozer will likely be the MVP of the series if Utah is to advance. He had a great season, but I’ve never seen Boozer play this well or with this much confidence. He’s scoring from every direction and dominating the paint offensively. He’s certainly the most powerful player in the series, and if Sloan gets his way that will be invaluable. Carlos can really make the Warriors pay for going small: in the season series he had three double-doubles, including a 25-point, 21-rebound game in one Jazz victory.

Utah will have to figure out a way to deal with a ton of athleticism on the outside, and Andrei Kirilenko might be the best bet because of his versatility. He’s been up and down this season and in the first round, but if AK-47 plays well the Jazz are a completely different team. He can provide a shot-blocking presence that keeps people away from the rim and he’s quick enough to chase down shooters on the outside. Matt Harpring will be coming off the bench, but expect to see him out there for 30+ minutes a game because Harpring’s strength can help Utah match up with G.S. wings. He plays Sloan’s style of hard-nosed basketball perfectly, he can hit open jumpers, he has a ton of playoff experience, he’s strong and he’s heady. Harpring will play tough D on anybody who dares to challenge him, and he has a great nose for the ball. Finally, Paul Millsap’s relentless energy on the glass and box-out skills will be an asset when he sees enough minutes. If so, Paul can really mitigate the hustle contributions of Andris Biedrins.

On the GS side, the Bay Area fans will be counting on two guys who vanished in the first round to step up. In order to keep up with the aforementioned Jazz forwards, Golden State is going to need significant contributions and minutes from Andris Biedrins and Al Harrington. Andris will have to make an impact in his usual way, and not shrink as he did against Dallas. He’s the only guy outside of Adonal Foyle who can protect the rim and block shots. He’s also one of the better offensive rebounders in the game when he’s on, something the Warriors desperately need without a true power forward or center. They really don’t need him to score at all, but Biedrins has to keep balls alive, average double-digit rebounds and block a couple of shots every game. It should be very interesting to see what Al Harrington brings this round. He completely vanished against the Mavericks, but I think the Warriors will need him to play better in order to advance. He provided a respectable 16.5 points and 6.4 boards for the Warriors in the regular season, but he went AWOL last week.

Prediction:
I think Golden State can take one in Utah, just not a game seven. They’ll have to get it done before it comes to that, but these Warriors are eminently capable of doing it. They’re a team that thrives on confidence and offensive flow, and right now they couldn’t be in much more of a groove. The Jazz also had a considerably more taxing series with the Houston Rockets and are operating on a less rest, so the stage is set for Baron Davis and Co. to come into the Delta Center (No, I will not refer to it as EnergySolutions Arena) and steal one. The Warriors won their final 5 regular season games to qualify for the playoffs and they haven’t looked back. Perhaps that shouldn’t be a surprise. This is a team which has struggled with injuries for a bulk of the last two seasons, but when healthy they’ve won. Davis sparked them to the best record in the league in 2004-05 after he came over for the final 28 games, they had a playoff-caliber record last season when he was healthy, and they had the best record in the NBA again this year after he returned from All-Star break surgery.

I don’t want it to sound like I’m writing the Jazz off though, because they have home court and a great shot to pull this one out. Their players have more playoff experience, especially Matt Harpring and Derek Fisher, and Jerry Sloan is an expert at bringing the game to a slow, grinding pace. Expect some creative defenses that will challenge the undersized, brittle Warriors physically. Carlos Boozer is turning into a star before our eyes this season, especially this postseason, and he has the tools and matchups to single-handedly change the course of the series. With nobody to stand up to his physical presence inside, if Boozer starts hitting his mid-range jumpers he could drop 30-40 points in any game. Deron Williams makes me a little concerned though. I think he’s a star in the making, and he could play very well, but it’s going to be very difficult to keep him out of foul trouble against the meaner, stronger Baron Davis and the quicker Monta Ellis. This Jazz nucleus looks great, but they’re up against a runaway semi that doesn’t look to slow down this week . . .

Golden State in 6

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