Empty the Bench

Ok, it’s time to get serious. The pretenders are dropping like flies and the next round will feature several legit championship teams. Going into the season Phoenix and San Antonio were certainly on the short list of title contenders and nothing has changed since then. They went through the motions in the regular season, asserting their usual dominance. But now they each get their first real test, and it should make for tremendous NBA drama. It would be hard to find two teams in this season’s playoffs who exhibit more opposed playing styles.

Mike D’Antoni’s Suns will look to control the tempo by relentlessly pushing the ball, keeping the Spurs on their heels. San Antonio will counter by slowing it down, trying to work the game into the half-court sets where they thrive. The simple analysis is that whichever team succeeds in imposing their style of play will take the series. The other obvious theme will be home court advantage. The Spurs won the season series 2-1, but the home team took all three contests. San Antonio is going to have to take one in Phoenix, and that’s easier said than done, but Phoenix plays some of their worst ball on the Riverwalk. Their April 5th game in San Anton was perhaps the worst offensive performance of the Suns season, but Phoenix was 33-8 at home and play even faster there in the playoffs. This should be good.

Backcourt:

There are two premier matchups in this series, but it’s all going to revolve around the duel at point guard. We all know that Steve Nash is as talented on the offensive end of the floor as any point in history. On the other end of the court, Tony Parker is the type of lightning quick ballhandler who can make Nash look silly. I enjoy watching the Suns offense fire on all cylinders as much as the next guy, but I just can’t ignore the fact that Nash is one of the poorest defenders in the NBA. Tony Parker scored 28 points per game in the regular season series and I don’t see any reason that won’t hold up in this matchup. Nash struggles mightily against the quicker guards in the league, and an opposing point who can penetrate is the Suns’ Achilles’ heel (See Arenas comma Gilbert, who scored 85 total points between the December 22nd and January 23rd games).

Let’s not forget about Brazilian Lightning though. Leandro Barbosa (no relation to José Vicente Barbosa du Bocage, the Portuguese zoologist and politician) can match Parker’s quickness and then some. The Sixth Man of the Year is instant offense, but he can also stay in front of people better than Nash and should really help to neutralize Parker. I expect to see him on the floor for 30+ minutes a game, and his help on both ends will be crucial for Phoenix.

The Hybrids:

There are a number of players here who defy strict categorization in this series. Forwards who guard guards, guards who play center, forwards who play guard, transvestites who play forward and centers who guard guards. Boris Diaw, James Jones, Manu Ginobili, Bruce Bowen, Raja Bell, Michael Finley, Brent Barry et al. I tried breaking down all the possible matchups and it made me drink.

Individually . . .

Diaw is going to play the high post, keep the ball moving, draw defenders out and make cuts to the basket. James Jones will hover around the perimeter and knock down open jumpers, but play no D nor create his own shot. Manu (who finished second to Barbosa in Sixth Man voting) will be a total spaz, but draw a ton of fouls on both ends of the floor, handle the ball, and provide a spark on offense. All-Defensive Team selection Bruce Bowen will play solid D, get away with a ton of fouls, try to put his foot under jump shooters to injure them (i.g. Ray Allen), and wait in the baseline corner for open threes. Raja Bell is going to match Bowen’s defensive intensity without the physicality, score from all over the perimeter, handle the ball a little bit and just try to get open. Michael Finley will provide a nice veteran presence who is capable of putting up 20 on any given night (though will likely average around 10-13), will take pressure off of the Spurs guards and will also hit all of his baseline jumpers. The former Slam Dunk Contest champ Barry is going to look for open jumpers outside with the Suns defense collapsing on Duncan and Parker and relieve Parker of some of the ball handling duties during the second and third quarters.

Phew. Let’s be honest though, this series won’t be about these guys.

Frontcourt:

The second pairing of All-Stars comes up front. Tim(e) Duncan and Amare Stoudemire symbolize the way each of these teams like to play. Amare takes the ball to the basket with reckless abandon. One of the league leaders in dunks, don’t expect him to hold the ball for too long. He loves to run, has an extremely quick first step and takes the ball to the middle of the lane with the best of them. However, Amare has trouble getting into a rhythm when the offense slows down. San Antonio held Stoudemire to 15.5 points per in their two wins this year. When he did get into the flow in the game at home, though, Amare put up 24 points and 23 boards.

Paired with Amare up front is Shawn Marion, everybody’s favorite fantasy basketball player. Marion is a fantastic athlete who can score from anywhere (despite his middle-school-girl’s release) and plays great help defense. While his passing skills could use some work, expect to see Marion harass Duncan in the post and draw the Spurs’ power forwards and centers out on the other end. He’s a great player, and San Antonio may not have an answer for him.

On the other hand of the clock, we have Father Time. Slow, methodical Duncan. Droopy Dog’s long-lost twin brother. He’s not going to excite anybody under the age of 50, and I’ve never seen a man his size score a fewer percentage of his points on dunks, but damn if he isn’t effective. When the game slows down in the playoffs, when the half-court sets are prevalent and when you need consistent low-post scoring, there are few players I’d rather have out there. Duncan averaged 22.7 points and 14 rebounds in the season series, and he should be at least as good here.

In the Final Analysis . . .
The Suns came into San Antonio on fire in 2005, but ended up losing that series in five games. As they’ve proven time and again, in the playoffs it’s nearly impossible to force the Spurs to play outside of their comfort zone. That is the task Phoenix faces this series, and it’s really anybody’s guess if they will succeed. To be honest I think this is a complete toss-up between two of the very best teams in the NBA. I could easily see either hoisting the trophy when all is said and done, but it’s my job to make a prediction. I have a gut feeling that the Suns will overwhelm the aging Spurs in the first game of the series, and that they will narrowly hold home court in the the second, and that San Antonio will hold serve at the AT&T Center. That would mean a thrilling three-game series to decide the matchup. It comes down to clutch scoring for me, and I’m not sure I can see the Suns finding an answer for the duo of Parker and Duncan in that department.

As a result, I think . . .

Spurs Take it in Six Games