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Fantasy MLB: Prospect Pick-Ups

April 25, 2007

We’re Lincecum Fans

We saw the likes of Francisco Liriano, Jared Weaver, Jonathan Papelbon, Takashi Saito (He counts) and Justin Verlander make huge impacts as rookies in every fantasy league around the country in 2006. Daisuke Matsuzaka was drafted among the top 20 pitchers in your league, but who are the undrafted fantasy rookies that will help teams bring home the trophy in 2007? The first may be arriving this week. Wunderkind Phil Hughes will get the starting nod for the Yankees tomorrow, and just three weeks into the season he represents the first call up who could have the type of impact the aforementioned pitchers did last season. None of the guys featured below have had a chance to contribute at the Major League level yet, but given the opportunity I expect each of these four to be ownable in all fantasy formats.

Of course, with such unproven products these suggestions come with a caveat of caution- don’t go dropping Erik Bedard for them just yet. If you haven’t done so, you may want to pause now, put in a waiver claim for Hughes (He was entered into the Yahoo! system last night), before checking out the rest of ETB’s top pitching prospects:

Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants

Lincecum is my favorite of the prospects out there. I’ve picked him up in competitive mixed leagues with rotisserie scoring and feel good about it. The kid has the type of electrifying stuff that could translate immediately to the MLB. There is little doubt that, health permitting, he will be a stud in the coming years. This guy is just dominating Triple-A hitters, going 3-0 with a silly 0.36 ERA, 32/11 K/BB ratio and a .113 BAA in 25 innings at Fresno. Not bad for a guy who was drafted 1408th overall. Lincecum threw 6.1 innings of no-hit ball in his most recent start Monday, but he did display a slightly disconcerting lack of control in walking six batters, hitting a batter, throwing a wild pitch and allowing his first run of the season. On the positive side, Lincecum did an admirable job of working around the baserunners while throwing just 53 of his 97 pitches for strikes.

The Giants would like Tim to continue to stretch out and build confidence in the minors, but if he keeps up like this San Fran won’t be able to justify keeping him in the minors for too much longer, especially if they continue to score the fewest runs in baseball (63 on the year). Expect to see him by the All-Star break. Rotisserie NL-Only leaguers will want to make an add now, and the rest should keep him on speed dial (Or the watch list, whichever is more convenient). Giants fans should be drooling at the prospect of a Matt Cain-Tim Lincecum one-two punch.

Philip Hughes, New York Yankees

The Walking Two Words: Run SupportWoundedHughes is a spectacular talent and a rare product of the Yankees farm system (to contribute for them, at least) who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy and in the AL East pennant race. The AL ROY chase still goes through the players already in the bigs: Matsuzaka, Alex Gordon and Delmon Young. However, by some accounts Hughes was perhaps the top prospect still in the minor leagues, and he could have a say when all is said and done. There was even talk that Hughes could make the initial Yankees roster, which started to make even more sense as New york pitchers went down like flies in spring training. GM Brian Cashman wanted him to get more seasoning, but it sounds like George Steinbrenner just couldn’t wait until Christmas morning to open his present.

“My exact goal … was that hopefully we’d be able to keep [Hughes] down all year, but reality kicks in when you play a season. We have a team need and we need a starter.”

Phil was a 2004 first-rounder by the Yankees who has done nothing but excel in the minors so far. He features a deceptive delivery and a mid-to-high 90s power fastball, two types of curve balls that clock in the low 80s, a hard slider (That he seldom uses) and is working on a changeup. You wanna hear a ridiculous stat? Hughes recorded a 168/34 K/BB last year in just 146 between Single-A and Double-A ball. Sick. He’ll be starting against a pretty decent Blue Jays offense on Thursday, so give him a few starts before jumping to conclusions. He’s currently 2-1 with a 3.94 ERA and 17/4 K/BB in the minors. Everybody should be making an add if they have a flexible roster spot.

Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds

Hyuk Yuk Yuk, I Play BallBailey is the most highly-touted pitching prospect in baseball right now, and thus the most likely to be owned already in your league. He’s become legendary since his high school days, when he struck out 536 batters in 298 innings. Homer gave up one run and four hits in five innings Friday, resulting in a 1.76 ERA in 15 1/3 innings on the year. While the 11/8 K/BB ratio will need to improve before a call up, he could be in line for a late May or early June start in the majors. Once he does get called up, expect Bailey to stay in the Reds rotation for the remainder of the year. The 7th overall selection in the 2004 MLB Draft, Homer has done everything right so far and looks like the most polished of the prospects on this list. He’s been striking out nearly 10 batters per 9 in the minors and could pay big fantasy dividends. He throws a fastball that reaches the upper 90s with good movement, a curve ball that takes 15 mph off and has a good break on it and is developing a changeup.

Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers

Yovani is the dark horse of the group and doesn’t warrant an add in most leagues. Still, keep an eye on the young guy’s minor league numbers and the Brewer’s starters. If they suffer a few injuries in the rotation, we could be seeing him sooner rather than later. Yovani Gallardo (Pronounced Yovani Gallardo) gave up just one run and one hit in six innings on Wednesday, recording a win for Triple-A Nashville. Gallardo has struck out a minimum of seven batters in all of his four starts, and he’s 3-1 with an impressive line: 2.35 ERA, 14 H and 33/7 K/BB in 23 IP. In 2006 Yovani fanned 188 in 155 innings. Ben Sheets has a notorious injury history and was pulled from this afternoon’s start with a strained groin. If the Brewer’s do dip into the minors for a starter, it will be for Gallardo.

Lincecum and Yovani are neck-and-neck for the National League’s second best pitching prospect behind Homer Bailey. The early plan was to have Carlos Villanueva as the ‘6th starter’, but he has pitched poorly, making Gallardo even more enticing for fantasy owners. Don’t make any adds just yet, but with his excellent command, if Yovani is called up he has a great shot at making immediate contributions. Gallardo’s fastball hits 93 MPH, which he pairs well with a hard-breaking curve in the mid-to-high 70s.

Guy-Yard-D-Doh!

Posted by Andrew Thell on Apr. 25, 2007 at 7:18 pm in MLB, MLB Fantasy News

3 Responses

Lincecum was drafted in the top 20 last year and was being considered by teams as high as the 1st pick, not 1408 (maybe out of high school)…..

Posted by: Adam on May 2nd, 2007 at 3:23 am

actually he was the 10th pick overall

Posted by: Adam on May 2nd, 2007 at 3:24 am

He was drafted 1,408th overall in 2003 by the Cubs, but didn’t sign. Then he was picked 1,261st overall by the Indians in 2005, but didn’t sign again, before he went 10th overall last year. Good call though, I should have clarified that.

Posted by: Andrew on May 2nd, 2007 at 6:49 pm

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