Empty the Bench

The Major League Baseball season is long and filled with peaks and valleys for every player. It’s a six month marathon. I’ll be the first to advise any fantasy MLB player not to take the first few weeks seriously. There’s just too many variables and too much randomness in any given baseball game or series to accurately weight the results of a given game or series. Michael Young’s batting average is still moving up and down nearly 50 points each game. Carlos Lee quadrupled his home rune total and doubled his RBIs in Friday’s Herculean performance.

Still, it would be equally foolish to completely ignore the evidence at hand. We can learn things from limited samples, even just two weeks. With that in mind, ETB tries to assess the early returns on MLB pitchers to determine if the results are or are not indicative . It’s a very sound strategy to keep 10-15% of your roster fluid all season in order to, and a bulk of these players will be factor into the decision making you do with that portion of your roster.

Facts:

Jose Valverde, Closer, Arizona

I own Valverde on a couple of fantasy squads, and I’m currently feeling pretty good about it. He’s sporting 6 saves, a 1.35 ERA, and 8 Ks in just 6.2 innings (7 appearances). I don’t think what we’re seeing is a fluke. He is immensely talented and has the track record and pitches to be a dominant closer. Those who owned Jose last season know that the final stats don’t show the whole story. He finished with an ugly 5.84 ERA and 1.46 WHIP, but a remarkable 69 Ks in just 49.1 innings showed his strikeout capability.

The closer position is the most psychologically charged in baseball, and when guys pitch poorly in the role they tend to melt down completely. Such was the case with Valverde in 2006, as he had an aweful 7.71 ERA, 2.23 WHIP and .346 BAA against in in May and even worse 12.66 ERA, 2.06 WHIP and .319 BAA in June. He fell apart. However, in every other month of the season his ERA never rose higher than 3.24, his WHIP never breached 1.00 and his BAA never climbed over .200. Thats pretty impressive in my book. The guy is just 27, and if he can eliminate the bad stretches he went through last season Valverde could wind up the best bargain closer in fantasy baseball this season.

John Maine, Starting Pitcher, New York Mets

As I’ve mentioned, Maine plays for the Mets, so he’s obviously going to get a chance to rack up some wins. However, but the kid’s other number might be pretty serviceable, too. He only had a few starts last season, but the .212 BAA was very impressive. So far this season he’s got a 1.54 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and a meager .154 BAA with 10 Ks in 11.2 innings. Those are fantastic numbers that will obviously be impossible to maintain. However, Maine was highly touted throughout his minor league career for a reason. He’s a good pitcher. He’s 25 years old and ready to bust out, and this could be the season.

The start versus Philly was unfortunate. John came unraveled a bit and gave up 6 BBs, but still managed to record 4 Ks and only give up 2 runs in 4.2 innings. Right now I own Maine on one team. I’m starting him versus average and below average offenses and benching him versus the stronger offensive teams in the league, However, I’m also making an effort to see how he deals with those offenses, because with the run support he’s receiving (15 runs in two games), a win would be had any game.

Nate Robertson, Starting Pitcher, Detroit

We’ve talked about this before, but 500 innings mark is to a starting pitcher what the third season is for an NFL wide receiver or the age of 27 is for an MLB power hitter: the time when breakout seasons typically happen. Nate threw surprisingly well over the first half of 2006 only to regress into mediocrity in the second half, but he’s a young guy and that’s to be expected. So far this season he’s been extremely impressive and forms one of the more promising young pitching tandems in Major League Baseball along with Verlander and Bondo.

In 20.0 innings (three starts), Nate has posted 2 wins, a 1.80 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP and a .247 BAA to go along with a surprising 14 Ks in 20 innings. The strikeout total is uncharacteristic (137 Ks in 208/2 innings in 2006), and those numbers may never blow you away, but he is durable and certainly capable of posting a 14-win, 3.75 ERA season. His peripherals should also be serviceable. In a 12-team league, he’s a must add at this point. Detroit it going to win a lot of games, and Robertson could be the pitcher of record in 15 of those.

Rich Hill, Starting Pitcher, Chicago Cubs

For vigilant fantasy owners, Hill didn’t exactly fly under radars this season, but he wasn’t given much love in his average draft position. Well, anybody who grabbed him there has to be delighted, and anybody who’s in a league where he’s available needs to stop reading now and pick him up. This guy has a fantastic array of pitched and a sky-high ceiling. Hill is one of the better young strikeout pitchers in baseball, and his September of last season was eye opening. In that month he posted a 1.93 ERA and 3-1 record, but more importantly Rich notched 50 Ks in just 42 innings.

Hill has been utterly dominant in his first two starts of the season. He has (only) 11 Ks in 14 innings, and a 0.64 RA (1 ER), 0.57 WHIP and .089 BAA (4 hits). That’s just sick. I initially made some conservative estimates for Rich and tried to publicly temper my privately massive expectations, but I’m ready to go out on a limb for the 26-year-old. 200 Ks, a 3.50 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. That’s my prediction right now. Not too shabby from a guy who was drafted as a reserve in most mixed leagues. The fly-ball-to-ground-ball ratio is always something to keep an eye on, especially in Wrigley Field, but Hill has the stuff to be a great fantasy pitcher if he continues to pit it together in 2007.

Frauds:

Dan Wheeler, Closer, Houston

Wheeler makes this portion of the list because I fully expect him to be more effective than he has been thus far. His 7.20 ERA, 1.80 HIP and .348 BAA won’t stand. This guys is just too good. Since joining Houston as a middle reliever in 2004 his ERA has never finished above 2.52, his WHIP hasn’t been higher than 1.15 and his BAA has been below .222. Wheeler has been a model of consistency in that span and was a prime candidate to take over the closer role last season during Brad Lidge’s struggles.

Astros manager Phil Garner handed the closer job over to Wheeler, who has sported an ERA of 2.46 in his 161-inning career in Houston and he won’t look back. Lidge has been just terrible since giving up the massive home run to Albert Pujols in the NLCS and I don’t see him recovering his former dominance. If it’s possible, buy Wheeler now at a bargain basement price and expect him to be a top-15 closer for the remainder of the season with numbers comparable to those he has put up for his entire tenure in Houston.

Ervin Santana, Starting Pitcher, Los Angeles Angels

In looking at Santana’s stats, one thing jumps out. His opponents have been Texas, Cleveland and Boston. All three of those teams finished 2006 in the top 10 in runs scored. They’re powerhouse offenses. He won’t be tossing against lineups of that quality every game, rest assured. Moreover, Santana is on a team that should be giving him plenty of run support, and he won’t be asked to carry too much of the load behind Weaver and Lackey. He’s got great velocity and movement on all his stuff, and his numbers have steadily improved the last two years.

I said it before and I’ll say it again. When all is said and done we project an ERA that will be around or below 4.00, 150-170 Ks and 12-16 wins. I have in on one team and haven’t started the young guy yet. I just didn’t think he would be able to mow down those lineups. But Santana will see his fair share of easier matchups, and in those games I am still confident starting him. Consider Ervin a spot starter for the time being, but if he gets on a roll he’s a solid number three starter in mixed leagues, regardless of what’s happened so far.

Erik Bedard, Starting Pitcher, Baltimore

Bedard is an ETB favorite, and I fully expect him to make good on all the promise he showed earlier in his career. He’s now fully recovered from the Tommy John surgery that temporarily derailed his career and Erik is throwing as well as ever. I’ve started him all three games (due to a 2.25 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 14 Ks in 12 innings versus the Yankees last year) and absorbed his 5.09 ERA and 1.47 WHIP thus far. I’ve also enjoyed his 14 Ks in 14.2 innings. This is a classic case of early-season struggles, and should be considered indicative of Bedard’s overall talent.

No doubt his owner in your league is nervous and perhaps ready to make a deal. Offer some trades in the hopes of acquiring him on the cheap, and I offer my personal guarantee you will not be disappointed. I’m currently making a bigger trade offer the the same owner over and over and treating Bedard like a throw in for the deal so that he doesn’t get suspicious about my man crush on Erik himself. Hopefully he isn’t reading this.

Boof Bonser, Starting Pitcher, Minnesota
I watched the entire game against Tampa Bay last night, and despite the stats I came away extremely impressed. The kid has great stuff, and his curve ball is becoming a legitimate strikeout pitch. As Yahoo!’s Andy Behrens said, “Boof Bonser had eight Ks in 5.1 innings against the Devil Rays on Sunday before the wheels came off. Or more accurately, before the fly balls began to leave the field of play. He has wicked movement and surprising velocity on his breaking stuff, and a mid-90s fastball.” Bonser has been a highly regarded prospect for years, and last season he started to fulfill that promise. He was stellar after the All-Star break in 2006 and wound up pitching game two of the ALDS for the Twins at just 24 years of age. His second half (2.63 ERA, 1.01 WHIP in September, 84 Ks in 100.1 innings on the year) had me excited for 2007, and I’m not at all dissuaded by the mediocre start. At 25, he could be ready to put up an entire season of those second half numbers.