Empty the Bench

Before the Yankees fans come out of the woodwork, note that this is a fantasy MLB column. When it comes to the bottom of the ninth in a one-run playoff game, there’s still nobody we’d rather have out there than Mariano Rivera. No, this is about the guys who will contribute the most to your team in the regular season in terms of volume and consistency. These are the closers that will rack up the most total saves and strikeouts, who will keep the your team’s ERA and all-important WHIP down and who will see the most action in the regular season. They don’t have the inning totals that starters see, but they can also be a sneaky source of wins, and if your closer’s stats aren’t ahead of the league averages you’re going to be in serious trouble.

The closer position is one of the most tenuous in baseball due to the psychological and physical nature of the position, so to assume anything is a mistake. Brad Lidge provides lesson enough, as his confidence was shattered by the Albert Pujols moonshot 16 months ago. He came off a two-season stretch where he had recorded 71 saves and an ERA around 2.10 to post a 5.28 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 2006. Ouch. Still, there are a handful of guys we’d like to think we can count on. Here are the top five:

The Top Five Fantasy Closers for 2007

1. Joe Nathan, Twins.
Boy, I agonized over this one. You see, as a Twins fan I see Joe dominate 65+ times a year and I didn’t want to be a total homer. But he’s just lights out, the definition of what a closer should be. He comes into the game and you can see opposing hitters change their stance and become intimidated. Nathan has the luxury of following guys like Juan Rincon, Dennys Reyes and Pat Neshek who have vastly different styles so his power game always comes as a shock to the batter’s system. You see guys take wild hacks and lose their balance trying to keep up, and it’s hard to imagine anybody is doing a better job than Nathan is for the Twins right now.

It’s a pretty close contest with Rodriguez, but get a load of these digits in his only three seasons as a closer and Twin: 123 total saves, 278 total Ks, 15 total wins, ERAs of 1.62/2.70/1.58, WHIPs of 0.98/0.97/0.79 and BAAs of .187/.183/.158. That’s just disgusting. I think I’m gonna puke this guy is so sick.

1a. Francisco Rodriguez, Angels
Maybe next year the other A-Rod can overtake Nathan, because in his two years as a full-time closer he’s been nearly as impressive. Between this guy and Scot Shields, the Angels can put a game on lock-down like nobody else. They both have that herky-jerky motion that you just know pisses the opposing hitters off. However, Rodriguez is no gimmick, as he proved in in his follow up to the great 2005 season that made so many waves.

The two-year numbers as full-time closer look like this: 92 total saves, 189 total Ks, 4 total wins and ERAs of 2.67/1.73, WHIPs of 1.14/1.10 and BAAs of .184/.197. Just a hair worse than Nathan, but still amazing numbers. A-Rod’s younger than Nathan and he has a more natural closer’s array of pitches, so I fully expect it to be neck-and-neck between these two all season for best in the MLB.

3. B.J. Ryan, Blue Jays

That’s right, this guy your friends have never heard of is above Rivera. The Blue Jays went out and spent a bunch of money on high-profile guys last year, but Ryan was the one who gave them the most bang for their buck. Nobody expected the 31-year-old to improve on his 2005 campaign in which he recorded 36 saves and 100 Ks for Baltimore. Well, he flew under a lot of radars, but get a load of what Ryan did last season: 38 saves, 86 Ks with a 1.37 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and .169 BAA. Ewwww. Toronto is an up-and-comer with a healthy offense and, perhaps more important, a healthy Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett. The opportunities will be there.

4. Mariano Rivera, Yankees
Again, he may still be the most valuable closer in baseball, but he certainly isn’t in fantasy baseball. As he has been plagued by minor injuries of all sorts these last few years and the Yankee’s have rightly acknowledged his importance in the postseason, his regular season workload has steadily decreased. His skills don’t need to be spoken for, everybody knows the guy is a dominatrix on the mound (pun intended). Career numbers of 413 saves, 59 wins, a 2.29 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and .213 BAA make him the gold standard of the modern era. It’s just scary that he’s even better in the big games.

5. Billy Wagner, Mets

Playing for the Mets in the National League is a nice place to be right now. The JV half of the league is ripe for the picking, and the Metropolitans should be racking up wins again in 2007 if they just get a decent showing from their starting rotation. Wagner is a model of consistency, even though he may be getting on in years. At the tender age of 37, Billy was as good as ever in 2006 en route to posting the second most saves in his career (40) and 94 Ks. This is another guy who’s career numbers are just staggering: 324 saves, 37 wins, 934 Ks, a 2.38 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and .187 BAA. His 2006 numbers weren’t far off that pace, and I see no reason for decline in 2007. The strikeout totals are what really separate him from the pack, but his metronome-like consistency is invaluable at this shaky fantasy position.

The Top Five Closer Steals for 2007

And after you’ve snagged one of the aforementioned studs, be sure to nab one of these guys in the later rounds:

1. Chris Ray, Orioles
Ray was a godsend for Baltimore last season, emerging as a legit shutdown closer and greatly lessening the sting of losing Ryan. In just his second full season in the bigs, he had 33 saves, 51 Ks, a 2.73 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. If he can duplicate that success in 2007, he’ll be a candidate for the list above next season.

2. Chad Cordero, Nationals

Chad backed off of his stellar 2005 season quite a bit, but it’s not like he was a bust in 2006. He still had a respectable 29 saves, 3.19 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 68 appearances. He also notched 7 wins. The problem wasn’t as much his production as his team providing opportunities. The Nationals were forced to find creative ways just to give Cordero the innings he needed to stay sharp. In 2007, we expect something between last year’s modest production and the amazing 47 saves he earned in 2005.

3. Takashi Saito, Dodgers
Saito came out of nowhere in 2006 (specifically, Miyagi, Japan) to finish in the top 25 in total saves, even though he only became the full-time closer in June. He was a rookie, but he’s still a 37-year-old, so he has a ton of experience under his belt in the Japanese leagues. The Dodgers should be a much improved team in 2007, and he will have the closing duties from the start. Takashi should get at least 30 saves, but his microscopic 2.07 ERa and 0.91 WHIP can’t possible hold up . . . can they?

4. Francisco Cordero, Brewers

Cordero was ugly early, but he’s a proven commodity who went on to record 16 saves in his last 19 opportunities for the Brewers, sporting a 1.69 ERA in 28 appearances in his time there. The man notched 86 saves between the 2004 and 2005 seasons, so it would be a mistake to think he can’t approach 35 this season. It would also be a mistake to assume he will, and that’s why he’s still around in the late rounds. So far, I’ve nabbed him in two drafts around the 15th round and I’m expecting the move to pay big dividends.

5. Joel Zumaya, Tigers

“He isn’t a closer, you CLOD!” Whoah, easy there fella. That’s why he’s a bargain. Am I the only person who doesn’t think Todd Jones will be able to hold onto that job all season? Todd nearly gave me a heart attack every time he took the mound in 2006, he’s getting on in years, his numbers are declining and Zumaya has dominant stuff. Closer’s stuff.

It’s a bold claim, but this guy thinks Zumaya has the job by June. However, even if not, his 97 Ks (in 83.1 innings!), 6 wins, 1.94 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and .187 BAA aren’t going to hurt you anywhere. Zoom was a rookie last year, as hard as that may be to believe, so the sky’s the limit for the Guitar Hero. If your league keeps track of holds, he’ll be drafted where he deserves to go because of his great peripheral numbers and the 56 holds tallied last season. But if not, chances are you can get Joel dirt cheap. Trust me, you won’t regret the decision even if he doesn’t contribute many saves, but if he does he’ll be the reliever steal of your draft.

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