The NBA’s Top 10 Fantasy Surprises of ’07

- The Season's Over -

The NBA’s Top 10 Fantasy Surprises of ’07

March 12, 2007

Richard Mayhew, The Unexpected Hero

In Neverwhere, Neil Gaiman’s fantastical tale about London’s long-forgotten underworld and the otherworldly creatures inhabiting it, everyman Richard Mayhew overcomes relative anonymity and the limited expectations of his compatriots to first retrieve a key from the Black Friars, then slay the Beast of London. The 10 NBA players listed in Empty the Bench’s “Top 10 Fantasy Surprises of ’07″ are a lot like Mayhew: they came into the season as late picks or were undrafted, were not significant parts of anyone’s plan for victory, and ultimately came through in a big way to save the day (in this case, for the fantasy owners wise enough to snatch them off waivers or take a late-round flier on).

Without further ado, the 10 b-ballers who have done the most to improve their fantasy-draft stock for the 2007-08 NBA season. ETB’s other debonair writer/editor, Andrew, also made significant contributions to this ETB exclusive.

1. Andris Biedrins, Forward/Center, Golden State Warriors

Maybe Don Nelson and Chris Mullin knew what Golden State had, but we sure didn’t. We’re gonna go out on a limb and say that the 2004 first-round pick from Latvia was not drafted in your fantasy league, or your friends’ fantasy leagues, or 99% of the fantasy leagues in the States. Maybe his little brother back home drafted him, but that’s about it. How could anyone have predicted the kind of season Biedrins has put together?

Coming in he averaged about 13 minutes, 3.7 points, 4 rebounds, and less than 1 block a contest over his first two years in the league. Somehow, inexplicably, the spiky-haired 6-11, 245-pounder has transformed himself into one of the top centers in fantasy sports, ranked sixth overall at the center spot and 31st in the whole league by Yahoo. Dude is nearly averaging a double-double with 10.1 points and 9.7 rebounds a game, not to mention almost 2 blocks and a league-leading 61% field-goal percentage. I remember him-hawing back and forth about him when he was still on waivers, and have been kicking myself about it ever since for being too late. The FT% still isn’t pretty, but he doesn’t take many, and hey, it’s better than the 31% from the stripe he put up last year, right?

Kevin Martin

2. Kevin Martin, Guard, Sacramento Kings

Martin was probably taken in the 9th round or later of your fantasy draft, and he’s currently in the top 15 in Yahoo! rank. He leads the Kings in scoring at 21.4 per game—over double from last year—and he’s been rock solid in the percentages at 49.6 FG and 84.7 FT. The 2004 first-round pick out of West Carolina doesn’t look very imposing on the court next to many of his peers, but this year he’s proven that his scoring ability is as good as, if not better than, most of them. Safe to say if you wound up with Martin starting on your roster, there’s no reason to throw a tanty. He’s as solid as anybody taken outside the first round at the SG spot.

3. Al Jefferson, Forward/Center, Boston Celtics

If you think ETB has been writing about Big Al damn near every day, well, you’re right, but for good reason. Check these February averages for the Celtics’ future all star: 19.4 points, 13.4 boards, 54% FG, and 1.7 blocks. Last week he took the NBA’s Player of the Week honor… along with the aforemetioned Kevin Martin. Who’s become the Celtics’ centerpiece to build around for the future? Hint: it’s not Paul Pierce.

4. David Lee, Forward, New York Knicks

David Lee has come out of nowhere to be one of the most productive and consistent power forwards in fantasyland. For teams who were fortunate enough to grab this free agent early on, he has anchored the FG% and rebounds categories to the tune of 60.6% from the field and 10.7 boards per game. Impressive numbers that rank him at 2nd and 8th in the NBA, respectively. Lee has a tremendous motor and his hustle provides an ideal complement to Eddy Curry’s signature laziness on the glass. That Lee is shooting 81% from the free-throw line is icing on the cake. The fact that Isiah Thomas hasn’t been able to find a consistent spot for this sparkplug in the starting lineup is borderline criminal. He’s missed the last week with a sprained ankle, but he will be a key component to any Knick playoff aspirations.

Monta Ellis guarding Jarrett Jack

5. Jarrett Jack, Guard, Portland Trail Blazers

Jack isn’t getting a lot of attention in the national media, but he’s an integral part of the exciting young core in Portland. Lamarcus Aldridge, Martell Webster, and Brandon Roy were the high-profile picks that are expected to anchor the the Blazers in the coming years, but Jack has been the most reliable young cog in Portland this season.

The second-year point guard out of Georgia Tech has totaled 313 assists on the year, good for 24th in the NBA coming into Sunday night’s contest against Golden State. Compared to last season, he’s nearly doubled his per-game averages in points, assists, and steals, and has higher percentages across the board. He sort of reminds us of Chauncey Billups, except that his game is farther along now that at the same point in Billups’ career.

6. Mikki Moore, Forward/Center, New Jersey Nets

He’s bounced around in his short career, but Moore appears to have finally found a home in New Jersey. The Nets, who have a perennial need for size and defense underneath, have been leaning on Moore more and more as the season has progressed, and that has endowed him with surprising fantasy relevance. The season-ending injury to Nenad Kristic opened up a lot of minutes, and for the most part Mikki hasn’t disappointed. His numbers aren’t as big as the other guys on this list, but he’s here because of the sheer unlikeliness that he would ever make a fantasy roster.

7. Leandro Barbosa, Guard, Phoenix Suns

Brazilian Lightning is probably the highest ranked 6th man in your fantasy format, and for good reason. He uses his incredible speed well, racking up steals, finding open spots and running the penetration-and-kick. The area of his game that has really taken off this season is the three-point shooting; he’s knocked down 135 triples on the season, good for 7th in the league… more than Steve Nash. Barbosa was probably only drafted in deep leagues; in my 12-teamer, where the roster size is 17, he didn’t go off the board until Round 15, a round that also included fantasy favorites like Darius Songaila, Jalen Rose, and Bobby Jackson.

8. Charlie Bell, Guard/Forward, Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks losses have been Bell’s gain, as injuries to Michael Redd, Mo Williams, and after being acquired near the trade deadline, Earl Boykins, have given Bell a window to prove he’s a reliable scoring threat and solid contributor off the bench, or perhaps even as a (shaky) starter. Just in time, too, as he becomes a restricted free agent this summer. Most fantasy owners, especially those also enlisting one of Bell’s injured teammates, should be relatively pleased with the 12.9 points, 2.8 boards, 2.9 assists, and 1.2 steals he’s put up thus far. His percentages aren’t great, but they’re not horrible.

Bargnani takes Mike Dunleavy, Jr. for a ride

9. Monta Ellis, Guard, Golden State Warriors

We won’t go nuts with this one. He gets lots of press here at ETB, so you know what we think of the kid.

10. Andrea Bargnani, Forward, Toronto Raptors

He’s going to be a player. Andrea started out slow, but since the calendar turned over to 2007 he has come on very strong. He may never be a prototype power forward who gives your fantasy team an abundance of rebounds and blocks, but his three-pointer totals, shooting percentages, and scoring have been excellent recently. There’s no question that he’s looking at a bright future on fantasy rosters; everyone knew the 21-year-old Italian had talent, but no one thought we’d see these kinds of results so quickly. It’s going to be fun watching him, Chris Bosh, and the rest of the young Raptors continue to improve over the next few years.

ADDENDUM: By Popular Demand

11. Deron Williams, Point Guard, Utah Jazz

The fans spoke, and we’re responding. We made a mistake omitting Deron. Williams has so firmly established himself that even we forgot where he was getting drafted. I checked my leagues out, and nobody took him before the 8th round. Hard to believe for the guy who trails only Steve Nash for the league lead in assists with 551 total dimes. The sub-par percentages of his rookie year are a thing of the past as well, as he’s a very respectable 47% FGs and 76% FTs. In fact, he’s up across the board, more than doubling his assists, playing 9 more minutes and scoring 17 points per (after just 11 per as a rookie last year). He has also led his team to a surprising 43-19 record, making them shoe-ins to win the Northwest. Deron did come on strong toward the end of last season, but nobody expected him to be the top-flight point guard he has become, so he certainly belongs on this list. Mea culpa.

Feel free to add any pleasant-surprise players that have helped your fantasy roster in the comments section; clearly there are more players who could legitimately be on this list.

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