Empty the Bench

This weekend’s ETB column, All-Youngin’ Team: NBA’s Best, 21 And Under, has generated quite a stir among local fans all over. The biggest response was probably from the Golden State Warriors faithful, who took offense to Andrew Bynum being chosen over Andris Biedrins despite Biedrins having a better season to date. I posted a brief response to the excellent discussion taking place on that forum, but it got me to thinking: California has two starting centers that are extremely young, extremely talented and have very bright futures. So which one is going to have the better career?

“The one thing that is for sure is this - 10.3, 9.7, and 2.0 is better than 8.5, 6.6, and 1.6. Both these guys can blow up into something special very easily or both can stay the same. The point is that right now Biedrins is further ahead than Bynum and is leading the race. There is no definitive way to say that one of these guys will definitely be better than the other, so you take who is further along at this point.”
-Thunder, Warriors Discussion Forum

The two young men faced off on February 25th, and Biedrins got the better of Bynum in the head-to-head matchup, but Bynum’s team got the win. Biedrins posted 8 points, 4 blocks and 16 rebounds on 4-8 FGs in 30 minutes to Bynum’s 9 points, 1 block and 10 rebounds on 4-6 FGs in 25 minutes. Biedrins also gets the edge on Bynum in the season totals (points, blocks, rebounds and FG%, all the typical center statistics), but Biedrins has been playing 29:30 minutes per game to Bynum’s 23. When Don Nelson took over the Warriors, we knew they would be a run-and-gun team with a ton of possessions per game. That’s a recipe for fantasy success, but it skews the stats. A lot more total possessions means a lot more opportunities for rebounds, points, blocks and put-backs.

“Both Bynum and Biedrins have made huge strides this year. But, which will continue to improve? Biedrins, an undersized center that has trained as a PF until now in a system that has no idea how to run any kind of half-court? Or the prototype large center, with a head coach that has more championships than anyone else, a position coach (Kareem) that was one of the best ever at the position, in a system that LIVES in half-court, FOCUSING on a strong big man in the paint? Money on Bynum increasing his game over Biedrins.”
- drazz, Warriors Discussion Forum

There is no doubt Biedrins is playing better than Bynum right now. I don’t dispute that. But in watching the two, I see more potential from Bynum, particularly on the offensive end of the floor. From my perspective, he seems to have more of a prototypical NBA center’s frame (40 lbs heavier than Andris, and with a more natural center’s body). He also looks like he will fill out a little easier than the lithe Biedrins. That’s going to be huge for his post-up game.

Bynum also seems to be more comfortable with the basketball, in terms of ball handling and passing. He has a much softer touch with the ball, both from the floor and the line (Biedrins and David Lee, first and second in the NBA in FG%, both get a majority of their points inside the circle, a bulk of them on put-backs). Andrew is currently shooting 70.8% from the line, which is a nice number for a big man his age, better than more accomplished centers like Shaq and Tim Duncan already. Biedrins has improved from his terrible 30% FTs from last year, but he has a long way to go, currently at 50%.

In terms of defense, I look at Biedrins as more of a help defender. Somebody who hovers around the basket, blocking shots and snaring boards when his teammates make mistakes. Andris plays solidly in that role, but he hasn’t learned the nuances of the game yet. He leads the NBA in personal fouls and averages nearly one more per game than Bynum (3.8 to 3.0, an indication of the number of times he is forced to make up for a mistake). When Bynum matures, he will be able to body up just about anybody not named Dwight in the NBA.

While Bynum is on the floor, I see a sense of awareness that is rare for a player his age. He seems to understand what is taking place, and he makes adjustments on both offense and defense that are beyond his years. He is not a great player right now, but the court presence that it takes to be one is there. Obviously, there is no right answer, just opinions based on limited resumes at this point. Biedrins could have a much better career than Bynum. Personally, I see more potential in Bynum for the long run. I can envision Bynum as a franchise center, where I see Biedrins shaping up as an excellent auxiliary player.