Empty the Bench

Suffice it to say, we here at ETB are not a fan of the newly imposed NBA age limit. We don’t go so far as to say the new NBA age limit is the worst thing to happen to college basketball in 30 years, as Bobby Knight asserted, but we’re not a fan. It really makes no sense, and seems like just another example of David Stern enforcing his own personal preferences as law (See NBA dress code).

I mean, people who are 18-years-old can vote for president, go to war, be punished as adults in the judicial system and work any number of dangerous jobs around the country, and yet they can’t play basketball? Does that make sense? What other employer could get away with banning qualified applicants of legal age based on the specific date of their birth? What if a young man’s family is depending on the income he can rightfully and legally earn as an NBA rookie out of high school? What if that young man suffers a torn ACL in his freshman year of college?

Well, another column for another time. But as fans, lets face facts: a good number of the most accomplished and exciting players in the NBA came straight out of high school. Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, LeBron James, Dwight Howard, Jermaine O’Neal, Tracy McGrady and Amare Stoudemire come to mind right off the bat. These players are perennial All-Stars and represent some of the best the National Basketball Association has to offer. With them in mind, ETB takes a look at the best young players in the NBA who are 21 years of age or younger (with a combined two seasons of college experience among them). Be sure to keep these guys in mind during next season’s fantasy draft because all of them are set to dramatically improve over the next couple of years.

They may not be able to buy a beer (legally), but they can ball:

Point Guard: Monta Ellis

The Line: 17 Points, 47% FGs, 77% FTs, 3 Rebounds, 4.2 Assists, 76 Steals (18th in NBA)

Ok, you’re sick of reading about Monta Ellis here at ETB. Fine. But if we’re going to assemble a team of players 21 and under, he’s going to be running the point. Ellis is fresh off of a 13 assists, 5-steal effort. He put up 19 points versus the Lakers in the first half tonight. We just can’t say enough about the kid. When given minutes, he is already one of the most enjoyable players in the league to watch. Ellis’ stats speak for themselves, especially when you consider he is only in his second year out of high school, he was a second-round pick a year ago and he has been playing behind Baron Davis most of the season. The one glaring negative in his game actually makes Monta more promising: he is drawing a ton of offensive fouls this season, but if he can learn some discipline (and get respect from the refs) he can cut the TOs down and stay on the floor even more.

Ellis has already drawn comparisons to a young Allen Iverson. There is some similarity between the two lighting-quick guards with an ability to score in the lane over larger defenders, but it’s not entirely accurate. Both can score at will, are incredibly fast with the ball and purloin at an extraordinary rate. But Monta is already better from the field than AI (mostly due to his wise decision not to shoot 3-pointers) and he has the potential to be a much better distributor. That being said, we don’t see Ellis leading the NBA in scoring anytime soon. We do, however, see him in several All-Star games over the next decade and maybe leading the league in steals once or twice. Get on the bandwagon now, before all your friends catch on to this rare talent.

Also Considered: Shaun Livingston He is having a decent season, but has not progressed like many expected him to. Having Sam Cassell around is part of that, but the feeling around the league is that Livingston should be a little further along in his development. He is still a premier prospect, but his 9.5 points, 5.2 assists, 1.1 steals and 3.5 rebounds aren’t as exciting as many expected. The sky may still be the limit for this kid, but Shaun has already fallen behind Mr. Ellis.

Shooting Guard: Gerald Green

The Line: In February 11 Points, 58% FGs, 52% 3-pointers, 87.5% FTs, 2007 Slam-Dunk Champion

It remains to be seen if Gerald Green, Delonte West or Tony Allen will be the shooting guard of the next decade for the Boston Celtics, but however it shakes down we think Green has the most potential of the lot. If we ran the team it would be Rajon Rondo at point guard, Green at the two, Allen at the three with Delonte coming off the bench for 30 minutes as one of the most compelling 1-2-3 lineups in the NBA for the next 10 years, all paired with wunderkind Al Jefferson at power forward (22 years old in January, barely missing the cut for this team).

Whatever happens, it’s one of the most exciting young cores in basketball. A recent survey of NBA GMs has Green listed as more of a future sixth man than a starter, but we couldn’t disagree more. In fact, we think Green also has multiple All-Star appearances in his future. He has already shown an incredible combination of outside shooting and ability to take it to the hole. His 41.5% 3-pointers is good for 16th in the league, he won the dunk contest, he has been shooting lights-out this month, and his highlights are awe inspiring. On top of all that, he draws a lot of fouls, putting pressure on opposing defenses.

The question with this guy isn’t his offense. It’s his D. Gerald is a liability on the other end of the court so far, but with his quicks, coordination and athleticism that is something he can learn. If he does put it together to become just a decent perimeter defender and his offensive game continues developing at this pace, he could be in line to average over 25 points per game for a few seasons.

Also Considered: J.R. Smith Smith was a Slam-Dunk contestant and a thrilling athlete, but he has toned down the aggressive aspect of his game recently. He has decided to settle for long jumpers (7.0 3-pointers attempted per game, 4th in the NBA), and that may not be the best way to maximize his potential now or for the long run. Still, the guy is 21 and he was putting up an impressive 15.4 points and 2.7 3-pointers before the recent knee injury. Not too shabby.

Small Forward: Josh Smith

The Line: 14.7 Points, 8.2 Rebounds, 3.1 Assists, 1.5 Steals, 2.7 Blocks (Fourth in NBA)

The 2005 Slam-Dunk champion has jaw-dropping talent. He is one of the most exciting players in the NBA of any age. While Smith is starting at the four for the Hawks, we think he’s a more natural three given his skill set (despite the blocks). We got a glimpse of what he was capable of during the month of April last year, his second season in the NBA : 7.6 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.5 steals, 3.4 blocks and 17.6 points in 11 games. If that’s what he can do in his second year out of high school, we can’t wait to see what Josh does when he has some experience under his belt.

Smith is currently second in the Hawks’ pecking order behind Joe Johnson, but his sheer athletic prowess will demand more touches in the coming seasons. Fortunately, unlike Johnson, Smith can be extremely effective without the ball. He runs the floor well, finishes well, makes good cuts, is agile around the basket, hits the glass and can frequently get behind his man.

Unfortunately, he has earned a negative reputation around the league as a malcontent and immature player. That may all be true, but let’s keep in mind he’s just a 21-year-old kid. There’s still plenty of hope that Smith can mature and fix that image. If he does, and he decides to dedicate himself to improving in his free-throw shooting (67.7%) and decision making (2.8 TOs per game) he could be an elite player in the NBA. Either way, he is an extremely rare forward who can block with the best centers in the league and makes several spectacular dunks on a nightly basis.

Also Considered: Rudy Gay Rudy Gay has been playing out of his mind recently, and it’s been fun to watch. He’s finally getting minutes, and has responded. Rudy had a 31-point game last week, and for February he is putting up an impressive 15.6 points (49.6% Fgs, 88.2% FTs), 1.7 3-pointers, 5.4 rebounds, and 1.1 blocks on just 1.6 TOs per game. A line like that will make a fantasy owner downright giddy, as he should only improve as the season wears on and his all-around game could make him one of the top fantasy contributors in the NBA in two or three years. By all indications, physical limitations will not be a factor in Gay’s development. He has all the tools. He can knock down jumpers from all over, he’s lanky and athletic and he has superior quicks and ups. Where his potential ends, nobody knows.

Power Forward: Dwight Howard

The Line: 60% FGs (3rd in NBA), 12 rebounds (2nd in NBA), 102 Blocks (11th in NBA), 18.0 points

A lot of people compare Dwight to a young Shaq in terms of size and potential. With his frame, we think he’s more like a young David Robinson, but with more upside. Either way, he’s that good. Dwight is second in the league in rebounding and has 39 double-doubles on the year, also second in the NBA (Both behind preps-to-pro star Kevin Garnett). That shouldn’t be a surprise as he finished second in rebounding average in his rookie year, too. The Orlando Magic are not a good team and really don’t have much going for them outside of marginal point guard Jameer Nelson and the aging Grant Hill. But they have milked Dwight for all he’s worth, feeding him the ball nearly every possession, riding him to playoff position in the lowly East. If this is what he can do so soon, then there is little doubt that Howard will lead the NBA in rebounding in the very near future. His frame hasn’t filled in just yet, and it’s scary to think what this kid will be able to accomplish when he is physically mature.

Dwight has earned a reputation as a tremendous worker who is always fine tuning his game, so we could be in for three or four more years of dramatic improvement. That’s good, because there are two areas of his game that need to improve. He currently leads the NBA in TOs (209), and he is shooting just 62.3% on a whopping 8 FT attempts per game. In Orlando, Hack-A-Dwight is already fully in effect during crunch time. If opposing teams couldn’t foul him down the stretch, he would be nigh unstoppable. Here’s hoping the most promising big man in basketball is able to iron out these aspects of his game.

Also Considered: Andrea Bargnani We didn’t think much of the kid on draft day. In fact, he made us think of Darko Milicic. We may have been wrong. Bargnani is putting together a more impressive rookie season than Dirk Nowitzki. That’s not to say we expect him to exceed Dirk in general, and they are different players, but it’s getting to the point where comparisons must be made. He can play inside defensively, but also knock down outside shots on offense. For the month Andrea is laying down 13.5 points (50% FGs, 82.6% FTs), 2.2 3-pointers and 3.9 rebounds.

Center: Andrew Bynum

The Line: 8.5 Points, 55.5% FGs, 71% FTs, 6.5 Boards, 1.6 Blocks

The Youngest player in the Association, Bynum is also one of the most intriguing. He has barely scratched the surface of his potential, and already there is reason to be excited. The Lakers are clearly committed to the young man, as they were unwilling to package him in any deal for New Jersey’s future Hall of Fame inductee Jason Kidd before the trade deadline.

I think the Lakers see what we see: a dynamic, inside-outside pairing of Andrew and Kobe running over teams for the foreseeable future. Bynum has a tremendous frame to build on, he has great instincts around the basket, he can score, he can block shots and protect the rim and he can hit the glass. Basically, he has it all. The question here is the same with all promising young big men: Will he realize that potential? As Laker’s coach Phil Jackson asked earlier this season: Would he be in the NBA if he weren’t seven feet tall? We’re not fortune tellers, but we think he’s going to prove that he is willing to develop his raw skills into one of the premier players in basketball. Phil Jackson, a former NBA big man with a championship ring as a player, is a good coach to mentor him on the fundamentals and motivation during Bynum’s formative years.

Bynum came out of the gates quickly, but his playing time has been all over the map this season. He showed his potential in the season opener, scoring 18 points and grabbing 9 boards. He had a quiet November and December, but has come alive again in the new year, averaging 28+ minutes each month, scoring 10+ points (55% FGs) with 8 boards and 2 blocks in that span. This is a kid who was getting only seven minutes of tick and producing less than 2 points and 2 rebounds a game last year, so the improvement is clearly dramatic. We think the next two seasons will witness equally impressive strides.

Also Considered: Andris Biedrins Biedrins is currently having a better season than Andrew Bynum, but we gave the nod to the Laker because he has more upside- especially on the offensive end of the floor. Still, you can’t ignore what Andris is doing for Golden State: 10.3 points, 9.6 rebounds, 108 blocks (10th in the NBA) and 61.6% from the field (Barely edging ETB favorite David Lee to lead the NBA). Considering he is 20 years old and this is his first season with any real playing time, those are extremely impressive numbers and are light years ahead of what he did last season across the board.

As an aside, it should come as no surprise to see two Golden State Warriors make this list. Last month the Warriors trotted out a starting lineup consisting of five players with no collegiate experience among them for the first time in NBA history (Monta Ellis, Stephen Jackson, Mickael Pietrus, Al Harrington and Andris Biedrins).